March Madness: How the Tournament Reflects your Investments

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

I usually don’t think about investments when March Madness rolls around, however this year the correlation is hard to get out of my mind. The past year in the markets has mimicked the past year of NCAA men’s basketball. The markets have been volatile since mid-2015 because of China’s shaky economy and the pending rate hike here in the U.S. In August, we watched the S&P 500 drop almost 200 points and investors wondered, “What is going on?!?!” At the same time, the men’s basketball rankings have been more volatile than they ever have been historically. North Carolina owned the #1 ranking title in the preseason, and then was quickly edged out by Kentucky, who got pushed out by Michigan State, then Kansas, then Oklahoma, then Villanova, and finally back to Kansas leaving basketball fans thinking, “What is going on?!?!”

Now it’s March, which means it’s time to fill out your bracket. There are a total of 63 games that will be played to determine the champion. Correctly predicting the outcome of all 63 of those games is about as likely as getting struck by lightning 5 times this year. Warren Buffet, who in the past has offered $1 billion to anyone who filled out a perfect bracket, must have gotten bored with that challenge and instead is offering $1 million every year for life to any of his employees that correctly guess every game in the first 2 rounds correctly (still extremely unlikely). So, what will your strategy be when filling out your bracket?

There is no guaranteed way to make money when investing, just like there is no guaranteed way to pick the final four teams of the tournament correctly. Sure, you can pick the four #1 seeds and hope that they make it to the final four, just like you can look back and pick the 4 investments or securities that performed the best last year and hope that they outperform again this year, but as we all know from the infamous investing disclaimer, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” In fact, only picking the #1 seeds in the bracket has left you with the correct final four just ONE time in the entire tournament’s history.

So, odds are that you are not going to pick every winner of the tournament. As investors, there is also a slim chance that you pick every one of your investments correctly and every one of them increases year after year. This is why diversification is key—Jaclyn Jackson recently explained this concept in more detail (which can be found here).That is where talking to a NCAA bracket specialist or an investment professional can help. The correct diversification can ultimately help you reach your end goal, no matter who the #1 seed is.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

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Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Economic and Investment Update for 2016

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

In early February, Melissa Joy, CFP®, Partner and Director of Wealth Management at The Center, was joined by David Lebowitz, Vice President and Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan, to discuss timely economic and market updates.

David kicked off the presentation by answering 3 questions:

1. Where are we in the (current economic) cycle?

2. What should we watch out for?

3. Where are the opportunities?

J.P. Morgan built a strong case for the U.S. Economy sitting at positive GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product), the improving job market, as well as, corporate profits, and subdued inflation for the foreseeable future.

David also pointed out items to watch out for, such as low oil having a positive effect on consumer’s wallets, the continued higher volatility we are currently experiencing is more in line with history rather than the low volatility environment we have become accustomed to, and being careful of investment biases sneaking into your portfolio causing undue risk.

Opportunities are still out there for investment growth but David stressed that the ride is as important as the destination. A balanced portfolio is like a sword and a shield for investors. Your sword, or equities, has the potential to give you the long term growth needed to help reach goals but your shield, or fixed income can help give you the defense to make your investment journey more comfortable.

Melissa continued with several history lessons stressing the importance of patience and that it often pays off when investing. She discussed top headlines in the news such as the elections and interest rate hikes and how these items will affect investors over the coming year.

Below is a link to the presentation slides referenced throughout that emphasize the key points Melissa and David discussed. As well, there is the recording of the webinar that Melissa and David held, that has further information and discussion.

• Watch the full webinar presentation below

• February 2016 Webinar slides

• J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets is a widely popular presentation on the state of the economy and various markets.  By clicking on the link you will be taken to the guide in it’s entirety.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

Making Sense of Market Volatility

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

Dear Clients & Friends:

At the risk of stating the obvious, the equity markets experienced some wild swings toward the end of August.  When I was interviewed by Channel 4’s Rod Meloni on August 25th – the 2nd consecutive day of the stock slide – I talked about opportunities I see.  But Rod described it best when he said Cedar Point had nothing on the US Stock market – quite a rollercoaster. 

I’d like to walk you through where the equity markets stand as of September 1, 2015, share some insights as to some of the factors that may have led to such volatility, discuss what may occur in the near future, and importantly what you might do.

Where do equity markets stand on September 1, 2015?

The three major domestic indexes plunged and rallied in quick succession, but ended the month down more than 6%, with the broad-market Standard & Poor’s 500 marking its worst month in three years. International stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index fared a bit worse than their US counterparts.

What combination of factors got us here?

It is natural to seek “causes” or an explanation when stocks go on a wild ride (which is more often than we think). Though there’s no easy answer, here are 4 contributors:

1. China: As my colleague Angela Palacios shared in our August 25th Investment Commentary, weak or at least slowing growth in China is the most widely cited cause of the stock market pullback. After decades of rapid economic growth, recent evidence has shown that China’s growth is slowing. The central bank of the world’s second-largest economy devalued its currency in an attempt to stimulate growth and thwart a stock-market bubble. After those efforts proved futile, Chinese stocks dropped and concerns about growth in China and across the globe sent stocks around the world plunging soon after. The primary Chinese stock exchange, the Shanghai Composite Index, has dropped roughly 40 percent since its June peak.

2. Falling oil, commodity prices: Oil prices are hitting lows not seen in years due to falling demand, oversupply and concerns over global economic growth. Other commodity prices have also declined due to economic growth fears.

3. Interest rate uncertainty: Short-term interest rates have hovered near zero since the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S. economy has recovered enough that the Federal Reserve has indicated it will raise interest rates and return to more normalized monetary policy in the months ahead. Uncertainty over the timing has weighed on investor sentiment, further muddying the timeline for a hike. Falling values in U.S. and world equities complicate the Fed’s decision.

4. Natural market cycles: Markets are cyclical in nature. Declines, though unsettling, are normal and necessary when asset prices climb too high. The S&P 500 index has steadily risen since March 2009, but hadn’t experienced a 10 percent correction since mid-2011. Analysis by Raymond James experts shows the S&P 500, on average, endures three 5-percent pullbacks and one 10-percent correction every year.

Certainly no one knows for sure – but we believe that the four forces above provide a significant part of the explanation or cause.

Will there be a retest of the recent market lows?

After seeing a nearly 10% drop in stocks, stocks rebounded rather quickly by what Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James, would term a “throwback rally” – something that is rather normal from a historical standpoint.  Jeff also points out:

“The follow-up from a 2 – 7 session ‘throwback rally,’ from a massively oversold condition, typically leads to a downside retest.”

Moreover, it looks like that retest began Monday 8/31/15. According to Jeff Saut, a key factor will be whether a retest brings about new lows (below 1867); which could mean further losses.

Another market commentator and Wharton finance professor, Jeremy Siegel, opined recently:

“When there’s a sharp decline and then a rally, usually you’ll get another downward leg that will test that decline.”

According to Professor Siegel, the Dow Jones may ultimately drop 15% from recent highs before recovering to around 19,000 by year-end. He doesn’t see a recession in the US or a bear market.  Time will tell – Saut and Siegel are veterans with vast historical perspective.

While some of the more negative news is grabbing the headlines, as you would expect there are a variety of balancing factors at play.

Recent data reports continue to suggest moderately strong growth in the U.S. economy. Consumer spending improved in July, durable goods orders increased, the housing market is strengthening, and household income advanced. The estimate of second quarter GDP growth was revised to a 3.7% annualized rate (from 2.3% in the advance estimate).

Oil prices reached a six-year low in recent weeks, which should be good for the American consumer, but less so for energy companies. Still, as energy prices stabilize, inflation should move somewhat higher and Federal Reserve policymakers will begin to raise short-term interest rates ahead of that.

The Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming saw central bankers discussing inflation, the global economy and the fallout from China’s economic woes, but officials provided no clear guidance as to the timing of the first increase in the federal funds target rate. The St. Louis and Cleveland Fed Bank presidents reiterated, ahead of the retreat, that U.S. fundamentals remain strong and a September rate hike is still a possibility.

“It shouldn’t really matter whether the Fed begins to raise rates in September, late October, or mid-December,” noted Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown on August 31st. “The important thing is the pace of tightening beyond that first move …The economy has made enough progress and is strong enough that it can easily withstand a small increase in rates.”

A retest is certainly possible, but recession is not imminent and many see higher stock prices by year-end.

What to Do?

During volatile times, dispensing the advice of “Do nothing because you’re a long term investor” almost seems pedestrian and stale.  As shared by Angela, a few things to consider include (1) Make sure your long-term allocation is still appropriate, (2) Double check that your time frame is correct for the investments in your portfolio, and(3) Review and consider your risk tolerance for those investments.  Additionally, while all of the news on bonds in general is negative due to expected interest rate increases – US Treasuries and high quality corporate bonds still provide some of the best diversification or negative correlation when stocks slump.  Additionally, this is a good reminder to review expected cash needs and set aside the appropriate amount.

I’m sharing all this with you to keep you informed about global economic movements and market events. I understand that seeing the short-term impact of volatility on your portfolio can be unsettling. During uncertain times, it can be assuring to stick to the investment strategy that we have developed together. For 30 years now, The Center’s focus has remained on disciplined investing and it has served generations of clients. In the meantime, we’ll continue to monitor market developments and update you accordingly.  Should you have any questions about the markets or your long-term financial plan, feel free to contact us. We are here to help.

Sincerely,

Timothy Wyman, CFP™, JD

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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The opinions expressed in this update are those of Timothy Wyman and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James, and is subject to change without notice.

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that any forecasted events will occur. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. The process of rebalancing may result in tax consequences.

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by e-mail, voice mail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. E-mail sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all e-mail. Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this e-mail. This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

Tim Wyman: Now is the Time to Rebalance Your Portfolio

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

The end of August for investors might have felt like a ride at Cedar Point. The downs were jarring, the ups exhilarating. In the midst of consecutive days of corrections, Detroit News Financial Editor Brian J. O’Connor interviewed The Center’s managing partner Tim Wyman.

“We investors have been pretty spoiled the last few years with low volatility, and these corrections are certainly more common than people think,” Tim said. “This latest correct is certainly nerve-wracking, but it’s common. This time it’s not different and a prudent, long-term focus will  prevail.”

Shifting investors’ focus from immediate headlines about China, Europe, the Federal Reserve and oil to the long-term may be easier in a bull market. But Tim says concerns should stiffen your resolve.

How Should I React?

When it comes to your next move, Tim told Detroit News that history suggests now is the time to rebalance your portfolio. Taking a look at your mix of stocks, bonds and assets on a quarterly basis is always a good practice, but doing it now makes sense.

“Research suggests that if you rebalance when there are large swings you get the biggest bang,” Tim said. “So this is an ideal time to be rebalancing. Some of that will mean increasing your stock allocation at this time. It’s hard to do, but we know it’s the right thing to do.”

Is the six-and-a-half year historic bull market over? The indicators aren’t pointing to a recession. But during this seesaw of the market, it is time to focus on the long term and consider rebalancing. If you’re ready to take a look at your portfolio, we’re here to help.

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Tim Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

When the experts need financial perspective – who do they call? Center for Financial Planning of course

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

Rod Meloni of Channel 4 visited with Tim Wyman, CFP®, JD on August 24, 2015 as he breaks down the market turmoil. 

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of speakers and Tim Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions of Rod Meloni. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. C15-034569

Using Women’s Leadership as an Investing Concept

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Did you know 3 of the 6 partners at The Center are women? We know the value of gender diversity in the ownership and leadership of our firm, which is why we invited Kathleen McQuiggan of Pax funds to join us for a roundtable discussion. We wanted to give clients and friends of The Center the chance to discuss the importance of having women in executive roles, their impact on businesses, and the opportunities they provide for investing. Kathleen is the Senior Vice President of Global Women’s Strategies and Managing Director of Pax Ellevate Mgt. LLC. 

Top 3 roundtable takeaways

1. Women’s leadership can and should be understood as an investment concept.  Many studies have shown that women bring a unique perspective to senior and executive management roles within firms.  According to Kathleen, this “secret ingredient” adds profitability, better risk preparedness, more collaboration and more innovation to companies. 
2. There is an emerging consensus that the status and role of women may be an excellent clue to a company’s growth potential.  Despite this, there continues to be a large wage gap between women and equivalent men in the workforce and very little gender diversity among senior management and corporate boards.
3. There are many barriers to female participation in management and the boardroom.  One of the most easily understood barriers is time out of the workforce.

Women spend an average of 12.6 of their working years out of the workforce to care for children or parents whereas a man only spends 10 months outside the workforce!

This pulling in two directions between work and family responsibilities likely has a lot to do with the disparities that still exist.  As I read Lean In by Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook, I’m discovering there are also barriers within ourselves to prevent women from climbing the corporate ladder. 

Whatever the reasons, the time for change is now.  Having discussions like our roundtable and sharing ideas is part of the solution.  Another potential solution developed by Pax is using your investments to express your viewpoint with your dollars.  If you would like to learn more please contact your financial planner!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Kathleen McQuiggan or Pax funds. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Trying to Time the Market and Missing Out

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

As market volatility rears its ugly head this summer, this is a good reminder about trying to time the market.  Investor concern has been ramping up recently over concerns from Greece and China.  Investors are wondering if they should sit on the sidelines and wait out these potential crises.  As you consider your strategy, take a look at this chart for some historic reference on missing out on the market’s best days for returns:

Market timing is extremely difficult.  Decisions have to be made perfectly on both the buy and sell side to be profitable and most don’t even come close to perfection.  The impact of lower long term returns by missing out on the 10 best days in the S&P 500 is eye opening.  Over the past 20 years, it meant giving up nearly 4% points in long term annualized returns.  What is even more astounding, and a very important reminder, is 6 of the 10 best days occurred within 2 weeks of the 10 worst days.  The worst days are usually the days investors want to sell out.  If you do sell, can you possibly have the courage to get back in in time not to miss these 10 best days?  If you get distracted by vacation, busy at work or with kids and are not paying attention for even a few days, percentage points could slip away very easily.  That makes it difficult to reach your long term goals.  While it may feel good to sell and sit in cash “for a while”, when faced with volatility, remember what it could cost!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well asinvestment updates at The Center.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

4 Reasons Putnam Investments is back in the Winner’s Circle

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

During the first quarter of 2015, I had the pleasure of attending Putnam Investment’s Research Analyst Meeting.  Even though a giant snowstorm hit the area just days before, positive energy seemed to be bursting at the seams in Boston. Admittedly, the Patriots had just won the Super Bowl and the victory parade was the day before the conference started, but the positive feeling at Putnam Investments came from something else.  It came from a proud shift in company culture that helped propel the firm back into its rightful spot in the winner’s circle of investment companies.

Putnam’s Fall & Rise

Having had their reputation shattered in 2003 after Securities and Exchange Commission market timing and late trading investigation, Putnam’s net asset level plummeted dramatically through 2008.  Fighting to stop the bleeding, Putnam decided to completely revamp.  On the first day of the conference, I had a chance to listen to R. Jeffrey Orr (President and CEO of Power Financial Corporation) and Robert Reynolds (President and CEO of Putnam) discuss how they turned the company’s culture on its head.  I remember R. Jeffrey Orr saying that when he first came to Putnam, there was a “playing not to lose” attitude and his goal became to shift that to a “playing to win” attitude. 

The Changing Culture at Putnam

I was most impressed by the analysts’ panel.  In line with the changes Orr and Reynolds set out to accomplish, the analysts talked about how Putnam’s research culture evolved to become more entrepreneurial and team based.  These fundamental changes have improved fund performance and subsequently brought Putnam back to life.  Many factors helped make that change happen, but here are what I see as the top four reasons Putnam is back in the winner’s circle:

1. Shared Research: In the old company culture, credit analysts and equity analysts never crossed the aisle to work with each other.  Now, it is common for credit and equity analysts to combine research (as credit research often captures a perspective that differs from equity research performed on the same company and vice versa) to make better assessments of a company.
2. Personal Accountability: Each analyst constructs his/her own individual portfolio and is rewarded based on how well his/her portfolio performs.  In this way, analysts are acknowledged for all the good calls they make and not just the calls they make that the portfolio manager adapts to the fund portfolio.  This encourages good ideas, individual thinking, high conviction, and entrepreneurship. 
3. Different Compensation Structure: Putnam’s compensation structure differs from other companies in that, typically, analysts fight over a lump sum amount intended to be split among them. The traditional structure often pits researchers against each other; even if more than one person has a good year, only the best researcher is compensated.  Putnam’s structure allows everyone to be compensated for the choices they make in their individual portfolios; essentially, everyone can be rewarded when they make positive attributions.  Culturally, the compensation structure helps thought sharing and helps build comradery (provided analysts are no longer motivated to hoard good ideas).
4. Efficient Communication: Communication has improved between portfolio managers, analysts, and traders.  To start, everyone is centrally located - meaning you can physically see when someone is at their desk and consult with them as needed.  This informal meeting style has helped Putnam eradicate the long, formal meetings they once had.  Check-ins are shorter, but more frequent and have generated more time for everyone to fulfill their job responsibilities.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

Are we Seeing Inflation or Deflation in the US Economy?

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

The Fed has created investor concern by stumbling away from its hope of 2% inflation.  That concern has given rise to a polarizing inflation/deflation debate. With a fragile recovery at stake, the Fed struggles against overcoming persistently low inflation rates and losing the public’s faith.  At the same time, investors build their cases for inflation or deflation; each side posing strong arguments for why either threatens the US economy.   

Evidence of Deflation

Investors who find themselves in the deflation camp argue that fears that the European Central Bank’s bond buying program will make the euro less attractive and send investors flocking to rising currencies.  As a result, European growth will improve, but at the expense of growth in the US, Switzerland, and other countries with strong currencies.

Moreover, January 2015 marked the third month in a row that prices for goods declined, clearly discouraging hope of a healthy growing US economy.  With a -0.1% price decline in January, goods actually cost less than they did one year ago. Similar to 2009, deflation affects falling prices, consumer spending, and adds pressure to corporate profit margins, typically spawning wage reductions and increased unemployment.

Not to mention, some dispute whether quantitative easing even worked.  The Fed made huge bond purchases with the intention of increasing the money supply.  Ideally, central bank asset purchases should increase bank reserves and the money supply, resulting in increased lending by banks. However, in reality, banks were so panicked during the financial crisis that they held on to the excess money and did not lend. There can’t be inflation without lending.

Argument for Inflation

Conversely, investors in the inflation camp argue that the energy sector, especially cheap gas prices, is the primary driver of falling goods prices.  Moreover, they believe recent price stabilizing marks the beginning of increasing gas prices moving forward. Essentially, as gas prices rebound, the inflation figures should also put deflation worries to bed.

What’s more, if you exclude energy from consumer prices, staples such as food, shelter, and medical care have increased 1.9% from 2014.  When the most volatile categories like food and fuel are removed from the equation, core inflation is steady and up 1.6% from last January.  These numbers reflect the economy being more in line with the Fed’s 2% goal.

Despite looming worries, economists are still optimistic about the overall improvement of the US economy.  Many credit quantitative easing for keeping interest rates low, building job creation opportunities, and preventing the Great Recession from becoming the second Great Depression. However, it is also important to note that critics of quantitative easing say that a long-term effect could be high inflation.

The Verdict

This is not a black and white issue.  There are areas of inflation and deflation pulling the US economy in both directions.  We are watching bank stability, consumer spending, and credit to monitor the situation.  Yet, taking the glass half full perspective, investors can be comforted that the United States’ core inflation is key in differentiating the U.S. economy from more challenging economies like Japan and the Eurozone. 

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

Is a Market Correction Coming Soon?

Contributed by: Matthew E. Chope, CFP®

I’ve said before that I believe market corrections are as natural as the day is long. That’s why, in my last blog, I shared 3 steps to prepare for market volatility. But how do you know if the winds of market change are about to blow? These are some indicators I like to watch.

The Bigger Picture: The Fed & Price Ratios

Beyond the US equity markets, there is more going on behind the scenes that can come into play. In my opinion the Federal Reserve has been keeping money extremely cheap for an extended period of time.  The Fed wants to stimulate the economy and encourage job growth. Recently low inflation has allowed the Fed to stay on this path.  This works very well for the US treasury also since low interest rates keep the US Government balance sheet solvent and interest expenses manageable.  It has also allowed banks the time needed to replenish balance sheets and squeeze out the bad debt on their books. 

Earnings are usually necessary to allow equities to sustain long-term values.  Generally, the price of a security today is the sum of all future discounted cash flows into perpetuity.  When earnings are stable and getting better and money is cheap this allows for higher price multiples like we are seeing today.  We are at or near the highest price ratios ever witnessed in the US equity markets.  The following chart is measuring the price to many other gauges of earnings cash flow and book value over the last 65 years.  It’s not much different if you view it over the last 200 years.

Ratios of various equity valuations

We are at this point in history because of cheap money, cheap labor and now even cheap energy (which is more of a positive shock).  Money, Labor and energy are the 3 main expenses that go into every income statement of most companies in the country. The next two charts give a valuation of corporate equities values to nominal GDP (price of publicly traded companies/gross domestic product)  the important thing to see here is that the chart is indicating very high prices compared to output from a historical standpoint.

The next chart below is very similar depiction of valuation. Each point on the chart is the price of S&P 500 stocks at that point in time divided by the previous 10 years of earnings for the S&P 500.

Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 Chart

More Indicators to Watch

From a historical standpoint, these 3 expenses for companies are close to, if not at, the lowest they have been for a generation or two.  It’s hard to see how it can get much better. On top of that, we have moderate energy prices again.  That indicates that earnings should be fantastic (and they are), but what's next?  When the cost of money increases and labor costs rise again (as projected for later this year or early 2016 in the chart below) we could see the earnings improvements slow and possibly fall.  And what if there is any type of energy shock the other way (and there always is eventually)?

The following chart from GMO provides some understanding of the last 50 years of initial unemployment claims.  When initial claims are high, we are usually deep into a recession. When they are rising, we are usually entering a recession. And when they are near the level we see today, the labor force is beginning to tighten, which typically leads to wage inflation and motivates the fed to increase interest rates and slow the economy down from overheating.

This chart is initial claims for unemployment 1965 to present.

Winds of Change?

The wind, which has been blowing behind us for so long, has allowed us to feel confident, but it’s beginning to slow considerably from some of the indicators I watch.  Over the next year we could see the economic winds actually begin to blow at us.  On top of that some don’t see a lot of room for upside in US equities over the next 7 years as shown in the chart below.  Those at GMO have forecast for US equities to have negative returns after counting for inflation.  So, if you haven’t recently, now may be the time to review your portfolio allocation, time frame and risk tolerance with your advisor.

Matthew E. Chope, CFP ® is a Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Matt has been quoted in various investment professional newspapers and magazines. He is active in the community and his profession and helps local corporations and nonprofits in the areas of strategic planning and money and business management decisions. In 2012 and 2013, Matt was named to the Five Star Wealth Managers list in Detroit Hour magazine.

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Five Star Award is based on advisor being credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR), a FINRA registered representative, a CPA or a licensed attorney, including education and professional designations, actively employed in the industry for five years, favorable regulatory and complaint history review, fulfillment of firm review based on internal firm standards, accepting new clients, one- and five-year client retention rates, non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered, number of client households served.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Matthew Chope, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.