Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Key Highlights This Quarter:
Diversification Outperforms
A balanced portfolio returned +6.69%, outpacing the S&P 500’s +6.2%, while also reducing risk amid market swings.Market Volatility Persists
The S&P 500 hit new highs, dropped into correction, and rebounded—all within the quarter—highlighting the value of a balanced approach.Tariff Tensions Resurface
Trade negotiations remain uncertain as the U.S. approaches key deadlines. Tariff revenue is rising, largely funded by U.S. consumers and businesses.“Sell America” Fears Overblown
Despite April’s rare simultaneous drop in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, foreign demand for U.S. assets remains strong. Bond yields fell, and U.S. equities hit new highs by quarter-end.Credit Rating Downgrade
Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA1—still strong, but a signal worth monitoring.Consumer Resilience Holds
TSA screenings, hotel occupancy, and restaurant reservations remain robust, signaling continued consumer strength (Source: Raymond James Up and Adam).Geopolitical Risks Rise
Escalation in the Middle East caused short-term volatility and a modest rise in gold and oil prices. Historically, such events have limited long-term market impact.GDP Impacted by Imports
A surge in imports ahead of tariffs dragged Q1 GDP, but underlying consumer demand and inventory growth remain solid.
The first six months of 2025 have been anything but calm—changing government leadership, trade negotiations, global conflicts, and volatile markets have kept headlines spinning. Even the Federal Reserve, after pausing rate hikes, cited 'uncertainty' caused by tariffs. We have watched the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, fall into correction territory, and then back to new all-time highs in a very short period. A diversified portfolio has provided some welcome risk reduction this year while also outpacing the returns of the S&P 500.
Tariffs
It is likely that we will continue to see volatility as the trade war escalates again, given the approaching expiration of the 90-day negotiation deadlines with various countries. There were numerous headlines surrounding the on-again, off-again tariff situation throughout the quarter. In the second half of the quarter, the legality of certain tariffs has been called into question, but there has been little traction on this issue, and it is a lengthy process to progress through the court system. The Big, Beautiful Bill is counting on about $2.5 Trillion in tariff revenue to offset costs. It is too soon to say if this will materialize, but for now, the worst-case Tariff scenarios seem to be off the table, and with that, consumer sentiment has improved. The very early data below show that in April and May, the government is earning more in tariff revenue than it did the year before. Where is that coming from? Mostly American consumers and businesses.
Best offers from trading partners were due on June 4th. As information becomes available regarding the parameters of certain deals, it is essential to remember that it will be unrealistic to negotiate a deal with every trading partner by July 8th (the 90-day deadline). However, don't get caught up in noise from small trading partners. We should focus most closely on our top 10 trading partners, as they account for 80% of our trade volume. The EU, Mexico, China, and Canada are our top trading partners, collectively accounting for 60% of our trade.
3 possible outcomes after July 9th (most likely a mixture of all 3 as the month continues):
It could be a nonevent for certain countries with additional deadline extensions ;
It might be a time of celebration of long-promised trade deals;
Or it could be a day for other countries when the hammer comes down, and tariffs are simply dictated again.
Sell America!?
Among the April drawdown post-liberation day, we saw this "sell America" theme emerge. The worry was that investors had collectively lost faith in all things America, which caused a rare occurrence where stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar all fell at the same time. While rare, this does not necessarily need to be a red flag. April was a bit of an anomaly compared to a "normal" market environment because President Trump shook up all global trade.
To add to the headlines, Moody's decided in May to move the U.S.A. down one notch on their credit rating system – from AAA to AA1. Still great, but not perfect. Also, it's a worrisome headline.
We are not going to ignore the headlines; they COULD be the start of larger themes, but maybe more importantly, we will track the data to see where money is ACTUALLY going. Despite the headlines, Bloomberg reported that foreign banks were still holding more U.S. treasuries than ever. Despite the "sell America" headline, it seems that everyone is still "buying America." Another confirmation of this fact is that bond yields are lower than they were when we started the year. If investors were selling U.S. bonds in mass, you would likely see higher yields. And this is without even mentioning U.S. stocks (while underperforming internationally) were hitting all-time highs at the end of June.
Here is how our new rating stacks up against the rest of the world’s largest economies.
GDP
The decline was driven by a significant surge in imports, which is a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. Imports increased at an annualized rate of 41.3% in the first quarter as companies packed in as many orders as they could ahead of anticipated tariffs from the Trump administration. The surge in imports was good for a -5% contribution to the GDP calculation in the first quarter. Final sales of goods to domestic purchasers, another sign of demand in the economy, grew at a 3% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the 2.9% seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. We saw a huge build in inventories. However, when you examine underlying demand and consumer spending growth, it was still relatively solid.
There are several interesting real-time economic indicators that help determine the health of the consumer, who accounts for 70% of our economy. TSA screenings, Hotel occupancy, and restaurant reservations are all still looking very strong throughout the quarter. People are still going out to travel and eat.
Geopolitical Events
The Middle East conflict between Iran and Israel escalated significantly in June when Israel targeted bombing Iran's nuclear capabilities and the U.S., followed by also striking their nuclear facilities later in June. As a result, we saw some initial volatility, and gold prices climbed modestly again. However, history tells us that events like these, although extremely concerning from a humanitarian perspective, often cause initial stock market volatility but have a minimal impact over the long term. Most of the time, the S&P 500 notches positive returns, with an average annual return of about 8.5% when fast-forwarded 12 months.
Oil prices also spike as Iran is responsible for supplying a portion of the world's oil. However, it is interesting to note that the U.S. has become far less dependent on importing oil. In fact, we are net EXPORTERS of oil. See the chart below:
As you enjoy these final beautiful summer months, don't hesitate to reach out to us with any questions you may have. We appreciate the trust you place with us; thank you!
Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.
Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and Nick Boguth, CFA®, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.