An Economic Perspective: Housing on the Mend with Little Sign of Concern

 Housing, as an industry, during the last down cycle beginning in 2007 went through the mother of all housing bear markets. We all know the problems that relaxed lending standards and cheap money caused. Many are wondering if it will happen again.

New housing permits and housing starts are moving strongly upward again (as shown below). But it took a while to work through the overhead supply that was sitting on the marketplace. In 2007, there were 4.3 million homes on the market in the US.  That number has dropped to 2.3 million homes over the last 6 years.

The US economy requires about 1.4 million new units a year for:

1. New home owners (demographics)
2. Demolitions (replacement of old homes) 

But only about 900,000 new homes are being built annually.  We are continuing to cut through that supply in the market place.  At this rate there will not be a home left to purchase in America in about 5 years.

So, I would say that we are already at what historically looks like a tight supply market (which usually impact prices). As shown on the “Home Prices” chart below, we are seeing that as prices go up all across the country.  Over the last 12 months prices have increased some 20% nationally according to the Case-Shiller index.

Furthermore take into consideration the still encouraging “affordability index” which indicates that it’s still cheaper to buy than rent (as shown above). We believe All signs indicate we have a bull market in housing underway without the same ominous signs we saw at the end of the last housing bull market.

Matthew E. Chope, CFP ® is a Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Matt has been quoted in various investment professional newspapers and magazines. He is active in the community and his profession and helps local corporations and nonprofits in the areas of strategic planning and money and business management decisions. In 2012 and 2013, Matt was named to the Five Star Wealth Managers list in Detroit Hour magazine.

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Five Star Award is based on advisor being credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR), a FINRA registered representative, a CPA or a licensed attorney, including education and professional designations, actively employed in the industry for five years, favorable regulatory and complaint history review, fulfillment of firm review based on internal firm standards, accepting new clients, one- and five-year client retention rates, non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered, number of client households served.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the markets or developments referred to in this material, and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and does not constitute a recommendation.  The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Be sure to contact a qualified professional regarding your particular situation before making an investment decision.

Vacation Homes: Dreams or Nightmares?

Each year in August, and again in January, after trips to a warm destinations for summer or winter fabulous summer vacations, we get calls from clients who have found their dream “home away from home”.  The dream is usually a condo located at a favorite vacation spot and a place where they can drive up, find a warm bed waiting, and the next day the beach beckons for a relaxing walk.

But hold on just a minute.  When you open those doors you might also find a leaky toilet or a few critters who also like your home.  It is then you begin to discover there are many good things about a second home but also lots to think about before signing on the dotted line. Here are a few checklist items for your consideration:

Location and Use

• How often will it be used? 

• Is it easy to get to or is the expense of getting there a consideration?

• Are you close to attractive features? 

• Is it a desirable property in case you wish to sell?

Maintenance

• Older condos may be ready for big outside assessments and lots of inside updates as well. Ongoing maintenance is a necessity when you own property regardless of age.   It is also the biggest complaint of owners.  If the property is rented, both the need for maintenance and complaints triple. Who is going to take care of maintenance and what is the cost?

• If the renters are family members how are increased utility bills going to be handled---yes they can be substantial.

Amenities 

• You may have fallen in love with the swimming pool but are you going to use the tennis courts, golf course and clubhouse? You will be paying for them.

Costs   

• The purchase cost is just the beginning.  The monthly association dues rarely go down.  Periodic assessments for parking lots and landscaping can be substantial. 

• You also need to know about insurance costs and added on fees for particular activities or uses.

• Furniture is also a consideration.

If you find the monthly costs are going to strain your budget, you might want to rethink the decision to buy.  One couple had a sound practice of not financing a second home until the first one was paid in full. If you are relying on rentals to cover most of the costs, it is best to have a contingency plan since renters may be scarce in poor economic times.

A second home can be a wonderful place for the family to gather and for you to have a relaxing respite from daily demands.  Like most things in life, make sure it will bring you satisfaction that you can afford.

Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.

Signs Say Housing is Back

 If you haven’t noticed here locally, the housing market has really changed.  A client told me of a house they tried to purchase in the Detroit suburbs that had 70 offers last week. It was just two or three years ago when you couldn’t give these places away.

A recent well-known gauge for housing, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, which was released in May, posted the biggest gain in seven years.

The 20-city index--one of several S&P/Case-Shiller housing indices--showed a 10.9% gain between March 2012 and March 2013, the highest increase since 2006. In addition, all 20 cities tracked by the index had gains for three straight months. But not all markets are equal. Consider that San Francisco and Phoenix saw large price jumps of more than 20%. However, New York and Boston had smaller gains of 2.6% and 6.7%, respectively.

Also consider that all economic assets are eventually just a supply/demand equation. Prices should be rising given the low supply of homes, less new construction, relatively low prices, and low mortgage rates.

As for the economy as a whole, rising home prices often serve as an indicator that the economy is performing better since it generally demonstrates increased consumer confidence. And while this latest report is good news for homeowners looking to sell, it also provides welcome news to underwater homeowners who may now see an increase in their home equity.

Another gauge of the housing market is that a large number of institutional investors are buying properties to rent—suggesting that there is still a ways to go in terms of a full-fledged housing recovery.

You may hear people worry that another housing bubble is in the cards. Well not so fast! Consider that this economy is built on different terms than the one that led to the housing bubble burst in 2006. Those differences include a tighter mortgage lending environment and houses that may still be undervalued at prices that are significantly lower than they were at their 2006 peak.

Matthew E. Chope, CFP ® is a Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Matt has been quoted in various investment professional newspapers and magazines. He is active in the community and his profession and helps local corporations and nonprofits in the areas of strategic planning and money and business management decisions. In 2012 and 2013, Matt was named to the Five Star Wealth Managers list in Detroit Hour magazine.

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Five Star Award is based on advisor being credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR), a FINRA registered representative, a CPA or a licensed attorney, including education and professional designations, actively employed in the industry for five years, favorable regulatory and complaint history review, fulfillment of firm review based on internal firm standards, accepting new clients, one- and five-year client retention rates, non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered, number of client households served.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.