Q3 2022 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

2022 has brought steadily worsened news weighing on both stock and bond markets for three consecutive quarters. The Russia/Ukraine conflict, higher gas and commodity prices, a strong U.S. dollar, China's zero covid policy, supply chain disruptions, high inflation, rising interest rates, a minimum effective corporate tax rate, recession fears, and Cryptocurrency crashes have all wreaked havoc on investor sentiment. According to the AAII investor sentiment survey, as of 9/30/22, investors were only ever more bearish at four points in the history of the reading (8/31/1990, 10/19/1990, 10/9/2008, and 3/5/2009). "Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have also been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P500."

Raymond James recently wrote regarding severe recessions, "Recessionary bear markets have historically contracted 33% on average over a 13-month span. We are already down 24% (as of 9/29/2022) over nine months. Timing an absolute bottom is extremely difficult when uncertainty and volatility runs high. The index often capitulates at the bottom, reaching a low in sharp fashion for a very quick period, with very rapid recoveries. On average, the S&P 500 is up 16% in the first 30 days of a recessionary bear market bottom." This type of snap-back rally is particularly important to participate in for the success of a long-term investment strategy and is extremely difficult to try to time. We encourage investors to remain patient and trust in the financial planning process that plans for times like these to occur. Asset allocation, diversification, and rebalancing remain core tenets of our process during these times.

The FED is making up for lost time

The Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates with an additional rate hike of .75% in September, making it the third consecutive .75% rate hike in a row (June and July). I believe The Federal Reserve feels guilty for letting inflation get out of hand and not responding quickly enough, so they are taking aggressive action now and signaling that they will continue to do so until they see improvement. Inflation resulted in less reduction than was hoped for by markets in September. So, the Fed is not resting on the hope that inflation will come down on its own; instead, they are taking aggressive action to force it down. They have decided to proactively fight it in the form of higher rates by year-end nearing 4.3% (another roughly 1-1.25% increase from where we are now). 

Policy adjustments need to happen with an eye toward future economic conditions, not current ones. The FED action in September is aggressive enough that if we continue along their anticipated path, it suggests there could be trouble for the economy ahead. It is likely that this intensified upward push will start to slow the economy, sending us into a recession, or what many are calling a hard landing now. This is why markets reacted so strongly to the downside for the last half of September.

Inflation

Inflation is starting to come down, and it is just not coming down as fast as the Federal Reserve (not to mention consumers) would like. Gasoline prices have continued their downward trend since peaking in June of this year. While that has helped curtail inflation, it is a lagging effect. Housing prices and food are the most troublesome components now. With mortgage rates catapulting to the 7% range on a 30-year fixed market, many people are getting priced out of the housing market. This means housing prices will likely start to decline, meaning less pressure on inflation in the coming months. Check out the video portion of our commentary for more in-depth information!

Bonds, Certificates of Deposits, and Treasuries are in style again!

Just as equities have experienced a tough year, bonds have also shared their own headwinds. With interest rates increasing rapidly this year, bond prices have come down and affected performance. But bond yields are finally paying some pretty attractive rates, and the yield on bond holdings is rising. Some might ask: "If rates are up, why is my brick-and-mortar savings account still yielding only .13% on average?” Banks are slow to adjust the interest they are paying because they have ample cash on hand to lend out (not to mention borrowing has all but dried up at these higher rates). So they do not need to pay you higher rates to attract you to deposit more money.  

Russia

For the moment, there is a lot of uncertainty in Europe from the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Putin is a wild card, as we do not know when and how he will strike out on any given day. It seems like he should gradually be getting weaker, but we do not know how long this conflict will continue. If there is a policy change or leadership change in Russia, international markets could be in a much better situation. 

Strength of the U.S. Dollar

High inflation and high-interest rates to fight the high inflation have strengthened the U.S. Dollar versus most other currencies worldwide. Our strong currency means importing goods from the rest of the world is cheaper. However, there are drawbacks to a stronger currency for companies that source revenue from overseas. On-shoring the profits from foreign currencies back to the U.S. dollar acts as a tax (on top of the new minimum tax rate imposed recently by the administration) to the corporation that must do so, meaning less profits. Following is a chart of how much the U.S. dollar has strengthened this year versus the Yen, Pound, and Euro.

Source: Raymond James

Recession Fears

Still, no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession. Two-quarters of negative GDP (both of which happened in the first and second quarters this year) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections coming up will impact whether or not we will hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic Research officially calls a recession here in the U.S. It weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

What if we are in a recession?

The average drawdown for the S&P 500 for past mild/moderate recessions (as opposed to severe recessions in the statistic above) has been 24%, which is almost exactly where we ended the quarter. 

We also had already hit this level in mid-June before the recovery experienced through the remainder of the summer. Leading into this year's drawdown, we took several actions in portfolios, including rebalancing (since equities had such a strong run in the second half of 2020 and 2021), adding a real asset strategy to help hedge potential inflation, and shortened duration on the bond portfolio. If cash was needed in the coming 12 months, it was raised. 

Staying calm in the face of daily market volatility is not always easy. That is why we are here to help. If you are anxious, never hesitate to contact us with your questions!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Three Tax-Savvy Charitable Giving Strategies

Contributed by: Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®

Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®, is a Partner, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, and Director of Operations at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She works with clients and their families to achieve their financial planning goals.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.

Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

In Mid-August, The Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law. This law includes several clean-energy tax incentives, provides additional funding for the IRS, extends Affordable Care Act subsidies, implements a minimum corporate tax, and, for the first time, gives Medicare the power to negotiate prescription costs. Although there is doubt whether these provisions will reduce the current historically high inflation rates, the law provides support that is viewed as a breakthrough in climate-related policy.  

• Energy and Climate Change Investments: Tax credits for individuals are extended to households that invest in energy-efficient home improvements. The credit is equal to 30% of the amount paid or up to $1,200/year for these improvements (an increase from the previous 10% rate). A $7,500 clean vehicle credit will be available for those who purchase a vehicle assembled in North America. The credit is allowed for cars with an MSRP of $55,000 or less and vans, SUVs, and trucks with an MSRP of $80,000 or less. (Before you run out and buy an electric car for the tax credit, make sure it qualifies. A list provided by the U.S. Department of Energy can be found here.)

• IRS Funding: Reports of the IRS being underfunded and backed up has been heard for several years. The Inflation Reduction Act provides billions of dollars to the IRS over the next ten years to increase their workforce, update technology, and hopefully work through the accumulated backlog. 

• Affordable Care Act Subsidies: The Inflation Reduction Act extended the premium tax credits for those enrolled in an Affordable Care Act insurance plan and whose income is up to 400% above the poverty line through 2025.  

• Minimum Corporate Tax: The Act introduces a new corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT) on companies with income of more than $100 million per year. The 15% tax will be applied to excess income over a corporation’s AMT foreign tax credit for the year. 

• Stock Buyback Excise Tax: In 2023, companies who purchase more than $1 million of their stock in a share repurchase program will be subject to a 1% excise tax.

• Medicare Costs: The Inflation Reduction Act hopes to reduce out-of-pocket drug-related Medicare expenses by capping the annual limit. The out-of-pocket costs will be reduced to $4,000/year or less in 2024 and are set to be reduced again to $2,000/year in 2025. It requires the government to negotiate with drug manufacturers to lower prices, and it requires drug companies to pay Medicare in rebates if the cost of a drug increases at a rate higher than inflation. 

The list above is not exhaustive and does not include several other corporate clean-energy provisions, additional expanded Medicare benefits (insulin cost cap and free vaccinations), and, ultimately, hopes to reduce carbon emissions by 40% over the next eight years. 

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Summer 2022 Economics Summarized in 5 Charts

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Is inflation transitory again? Transitory was struck from the Federal Reserve's language after inflation didn't dwindle for a few months. But depending on your definition of short and long-term, it could still be viewed as transitory. Headline inflation was lower than expected for July, and most of the reduction came from energy. You can see the breakdown by month below.

Source: JP Morgan Weekly market update, BLS, FactSet

Unemployment hits a multi-decade low. This equates to difficulty in the hiring process for firms. Job openings are declining, but there are still two job openings for each unemployed person.

Source: Raymond James Weekly Headings

Source: U.S Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *JOLTS job openings from February 1974 to November 2000 are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates.  J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets – July 31, 2022.

Mortgage rates spiked and are coming back down, helping the affordability of buying a home again.

Source: Raymond James Weekly Headings

Yield curve inversion continues to steepen. There's much focus on the yield curve as it's usually an early signal for the economy slipping into recession (although technically, this definition has already been met with two negative quarters of GDP). This spells trouble for banks as they have to pay higher interest rates on short-term customer deposits like Certificate of Deposits but earn less on mortgages, for example. This money-losing gap can prompt banks to tighten up on lending.  

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

What to Expect Going Forward - The Economy and Your Investments

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®

At the beginning of the month, RJ released some market commentary with the striking line…

"While inflation fears remain high, it is likely that we are past peak inflation and the largest interest rate increases are behind us."

This year has been riddled with reasons to worry about the economy and your investments, but some encouraging data has been released that may provide some optimism. Jobs surprised on the upside early in August, the stock market has bounced off of its lows, personal consumption remains high, and we've seen gas prices come down to provide relief at the pumps.  

RJ ends the commentary with some more encouragement…

"We likely have more weakness to endure, but Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, says investors can expect positive returns over the next 12 months and beyond, given the view that economic weakness should be relatively mild and inflation will moderate. Long-term investors should anticipate an eventual rally on the other side of this weak trend and take advantage of potential buying opportunities. Bear markets go down 20% to 35% on average, but bull markets average roughly 150% returns.

While volatility feels uncomfortable, experience suggests that adaptability and a cool head will help weather any market environment and position for the future.”

It's been a rough year for most asset classes YTD. Still, the pain and uncertainty also provide opportunity as bond yields increase and stock valuations decrease, suggesting higher expected returns going forward. We're continually monitoring the changing environment and are happy to answer any questions you may have about how it all affects or doesn't affect your overall financial plan. 

Nicholas Boguth, CFA® is a Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

This market commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth, CFA® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

5 Tips to Keep in Mind for Financial Awareness Day

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

Sunday, August 14th, marks National Financial Awareness Day. For many, unless you decide to focus on finances at some point in your life or you're already working with a professional, you may be left unsure whether you're making the right decisions and progressing toward financial independence. The good news is that a few steps can be taken to help you get on a sound financial path. 

Tip #1: Make a budget. And stick to it.

This is one of the most challenging steps for many to accomplish. There are things we need to pay for like housing, food, insurance, gas, and utility bills, and then there are unessential, discretionary items like clothes, concerts, and going out for dinner and drinks. Therefore, it's important to track your spending. How much of your overall budget goes toward the essentials each month? How much are discretionary or lifestyle expenses? If there are areas within the discretionary bucket that can be reduced and could ultimately be allocated toward additional savings, commit to making that adjustment. Budgeting is the foundation of getting ahead financially and progressing toward your goals.

It's also a good idea to look at your net income. Subtract out your fixed and essential expenses, and then allocate the leftover money towards savings goals and discretionary spending. Consider an online budgeting tool or app to help you achieve this.

Tip #2: Save.

Sure this seems obvious, but it's common to feel unsure of how much to save and whether you're saving enough. Saving depends on your age and the amount you've accumulated so far. It also depends on how much you plan to spend in retirement or what your upcoming financial goals require. If your employer has a retirement plan in place, it's important to contribute at least enough to take advantage of the employer match.

Many would suggest that you should always try to contribute the maximum amount allowed into your employer's retirement plans. When you consider current and future tax rates, timeline to retirement, and savings balances today, it gets more complicated. If you're later in your career and have accumulated a good balance, you may have the flexibility to reduce your savings rate and possibly your income. If you're behind and need to catch up, pushing yourself out of your comfort zone and saving aggressively may be necessary. If you're just venturing into the workforce, your income may be lower now than in the future. In this example, you may want to work in Roth IRA or 401k savings instead of tax-deferred vehicles. 

Saving rates are personal. Life is about balance and saving the amount right for you, your family, and your goals. 

Tip #3: Invest. 

But only take on the amount of risk that you can afford. Determining the appropriate blend of stock, bonds, and cash is essential to both growing and preserving wealth. In recent years of stock market growth, picking a lemon of an investment has been challenging. 2022, however, has reminded us of the importance of diversification and your overall allocation mix. If you have an investment strategy in place, now is not the time to abandon that plan. High inflation, rising interest rates, and international turmoil have created a volatile environment, but it can also create opportunities. If you have yet to invest, there's no better time than now to get a plan in place.  

If the idea of investing seems foreign, I suggest you review our Investor Basics blog series that our outstanding investment department provided a few years ago: 

• Stocks 101

• Bonds 101

• Drawdowns 101

Tip #4: Understand your credit score.

For a number that's so important to our ability to buy a home, purchase a car, or rent an apartment, credit scores can feel mysterious and sometimes frustrating. In reality, a formula is used to determine our credit score, and five main factors are considered. 

• 35% Payment History: Payment history is one of the most significant components of your credit score. Have you paid your bills in the past? Did you pay them on time?

• 30% Amounts Owed: Just owing money doesn't necessarily mean you are a high-risk borrower. However, having a high percentage of your available credit used will negatively affect your credit score.

• 15% Length of Credit History: Generally, having a longer credit history will increase your overall score (assuming other aspects look good). However, even people with a short credit history can still have a good score if they aren't maxing out their credit card and are paying bills on time.

• 10% New Credit Opened: Opening several lines of credit in a short period almost always adversely affects your score. The impact is even greater for people that don't have a long credit history. Opening multiple lines of credit is generally viewed as high-risk behavior.

• 10% Types of Credit You Have: A FICO score will consider retail account credit (i.e., Macy's card), installment loans, mortgage loans, and traditional credit cards (Visa/ MasterCard, etc.). So, having credit cards and installment loans with a good payment history will raise your credit score. 

It's important to manage your debt balance, only take out credit when necessary, and pay your bills on time. If you already have credit cards, student loans, and/or personal loans, try to pay off balances with higher interest rates to keep them from becoming unmanageable. Some people find it easier to pay off a smaller balance first, giving them a sense of progress and accomplishment. This is a more than acceptable start to proper debt management.

Tip #5: Work with a Professional.

There's no better time than now to build the foundation for financial security and independence. Working with a professional can help you answer questions and address the unknowns. By making smart decisions now, you're positioning yourself for future success. Use these helpful tips, and keep progressing toward the ultimate goal of a worry-free, financial future and retirement. 

Feel free to contact your team here at The Center with any questions. Take control now, and you'll rule your finances – not the other way around!

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ and not necessarily those of Raymond James. 401(k) plans are long-term retirement savings vehicles. Withdrawal of pre-tax contributions and/or earnings will be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59 1/2, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty. Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

10 Investment Themes for Mid-Year 2022

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Along with this investment commentary, we'll be answering your most commonly asked questions during market volatility, recession, and inflation in our BONUS on-demand webinar.

The first half of 2022 has seen a surge in interest rates, volatile equity and bond markets, and geopolitical conflict. All while investors have been recalibrating their expectations on the Fed’s timeline for interest rate increases. Economic data shows soaring prices and a very tight labor market, strengthening the case for the Fed to take aggressive action to tame inflation. Complicating matters for the global economy, China’s Covid-related shutdowns have exacerbated supply chain disruptions.

During these uncertain times, we want to highlight ten different themes we are thinking about right now and how they may impact your investments. However, despite these themes, it is important to remember that your financial plan is the most important theme to us through all market conditions. The financial plans we design are built to withstand markets like we are experiencing today and even worse. Everyone uses a different map to chart their destination. Some destinations are a week away, and some destinations are years away. Rest assured, your plan is designed with your final destination in mind, and this type of volatility is expected along the way!

Theme 1: Rising Risk of Recession

While no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession yet, it is looking more likely that we could enter one. Two-quarters of negative GDP (one of which has already happened in the first quarter) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections will impact whether we hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic research weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

Theme 2: Inflation

Inflation has been more persistent than many anticipated this year (including the Fed). Government stimulus money is still in bank accounts, driving our desire to purchase, which hasn’t fully been spent. This past quarter is the first time in a long time that we have finally seen this number start to level off and come down. This is likely due to higher prices. Supply chain disruptions are still present, but we are feeling some relief. Remember the chart earlier in the year that we referenced showing over 100 container ships waiting outside Los Angeles and Long Beach, California (one of the biggest ports in the country)? That number is down to 34 as of May. Chip shortages continue to persist with no end in sight, forcing companies to innovate as much as possible to manufacture items like cars with fewer chips.

Theme 3: Interest Rates

In June, the Fed responded to the higher-than-expected inflation number with a .75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds target rate to 1.75% after .25% and .5% rate increases earlier in the year. The Fed has shown that it is ready to fight inflation and update its plan accordingly as new information becomes available. The bond market is also expecting a .5%-.75% rate increase in July. The U.S. is not alone, as 45 central banks in other nations have also increased interest rates. If inflation starts to quiet and recession data starts to accelerate, the Fed could begin to pull back on its rate-hiking plans. Quantitative tightening (Q.T.) has also begun.

The chart below shows the rate of Q.T. for the $1 trillion run rate that is anticipated. In most months this year, the Fed will let the maturities happen and not replace those bonds. Most months show more maturities than is needed, so the Fed will still be buying bonds in these months. There are only two months this year where the Fed will need to actively trim some bonds from their balance sheet (the blue bar each month shows the amount of bonds maturing on their own, and the orange bar is the amount that the Fed would need to reduce by)

Theme 4: Geopolitical Conflicts

Sadly, the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight. While these headlines are not directly impacting day-to-day market moves anymore, their repercussions from sanctions on Russia continue to affect other macro-economic factors such as rising energy prices, which directly impact inflation.

Theme 5: Mid-Term Elections

As we look at the mid-term elections this November, it does look like the Blue Wave of Democratic control is on thin ice. The three things that are against the Democrats are:

History: History suggests that the incumbent party loses around 25- 30 seats during the mid-term elections.

President’s Approval Rating: The lower the President’s approval rating, the more significant the losses. With President Biden’s approval rating around 42%, that would suggest losses closer to the 30-seat level as it is lower than usual. But the question is - will his approval rating continue to languish in the low 40s?  

Retirement: This is also a headwind from Democrats’ bid to maintain the House, as 25 sitting Democrats are retiring. This is the largest number of Democrat retirements with a Democrat in office since 1996. 

Theme 6: Cryptocurrency Volatility

Cryptocurrencies continue to make headlines. This time, however, the headlines are related to the meltdown experienced. Last year, many people touted Cryptocurrencies as the only true inflation hedge…until they were not. In the past quarter, most Cryptocurrencies have dropped more than 50%. Coinmarketcap.com shows the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies reaching a high point of $2.9 trillion last November. As of the end of the quarter, that number fell to $850 billion – a 70% crash. Additionally, some individual cryptocurrencies have fallen over 90% just this year! Speculation and volatility are and will continue to be a hallmark of this asset. Proceed with caution if you do so on your own, as this is not an asset we recommend holding as part of your long-term asset allocation!

Theme 7: Do Something or Do Nothing?

Please continue reading to see what we are doing in portfolios right now. Investors often feel the need to do something when markets are volatile, as the fight or flight instinct has been ingrained into our being for hundreds of years. If you are doing something, ensure it is driven by the right reasons, as doing the wrong things can be very costly to your long-term financial success. The graph below shows that investors, as a whole, get the timing wrong by selling low and buying high. Following the herd can result in achieving almost 50% less return (orange bar below - 5.5%) than a buy and hold investor (yellow bar below - 10.7%). Let us worry about when it is time to do something as it is often best to buy and hold.

Theme 8: Elevated Oil Prices

Energy has by far been the best performing sector in the market, but this does not mean it will be the best performing sector in the future. Usually, by the time something is making headlines, the returns have already been booked. However, looking ahead, this bought of high gas prices will do more to spur our country toward utilizing renewable resources than any lobbying group or politician could hope to accomplish on their own. As fossil fuel prices continue to rise, alternative fuels are more cost-effective and can accelerate

Theme 9: Diversification

U.S. Large Cap stocks have been the darling asset class of the past decade, which has tempted many investors to ditch other asset classes in favor of more U.S. stocks. But as 2022 has shown, there is a considerable risk in concentrating your investments into one asset class if that asset class ends up being one of the worst performers of the year. We consider it especially risky to load up on a single asset class AFTER we have already seen a vast period of outperformance like in the U.S. stock market over the past ten years. 

Global valuations are much cheaper than they are here in the U.S. Studies have shown that lower valuations tend to suggest higher returns, which is another major reason to hold your international investments. 

Grandeur Peak, one of our international investment managers, referenced this quote in their quarterly letter that we believe applies to the question of U.S. vs. international investments today: 

“The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum ‘on average,’ it actually spends very little of its time there. Instead, it is almost always swinging toward or away from the extremes of its arc. But whenever the pendulum is near either extreme, it is inevitable that it will move back toward the midpoint sooner or later. In fact, it is the movement toward an extreme itself that supplies the energy for the swing back.” (Howard Marks, Memo to Clients, 4/11/1991)

2022 has been painful for investment performance across almost every asset class. The silver lining, in our opinion, is that diversification is still a success story. A diversified set of asset classes has dampened the drawdown so far this year, making the hard investment times a little less painful. 

Diversification is a core principle of the Center’s investment process, making international stocks, bonds, and other alternative asset classes key components of our portfolios going forward. 

Theme 10: Portfolio Management During Market Drawdowns

We have been busy behind the scenes tax-loss harvesting, thinking about timely Roth conversions, if that is a strategy you are employing, rebalancing, and ensuring cash needs are met. We are also monitoring factors that may tell us when to lighten up on or add to equities. While these factors are meant to trigger rarely, as there is a shift in incoming information from our broad set of barometers, there may be changes in our outlook and strategy.

We encourage you to watch our on-demand webinar if you are interested in hearing more. To access the webinar, enter your email address and the webinar will be accessible immediately after!

As always, feel free to reach out if you have additional questions. We are happy to help! Until next time, enjoy your summer.

Any opinions are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Part 2: Are International Equities Dead?

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®

In part 1 of this 2-part blog series, we discussed the importance of diversified investing despite the recent pain that many asset allocations have felt. We're now turning our attention to a key asset class when thinking about diversification…international stocks.

The S&P 500 (U.S. Large Stocks) returned over 14% annualized for the past ten years. The MSCI EAFE (International Large Stocks) returned a "mere" 7% annualized over the same period. 

This run of outperformance from U.S. stocks has been nothing short of astounding. Between the past outperformance and the current geopolitical conflict overseas, you might feel pressure to throw in the towel on international stocks and invest all of your money in the U.S. stock market. Still, we're here to share some perspectives on why that may not be to your benefit. 

My colleague, Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®, Senior Portfolio Manager and Investment Representative, RJFS, shared some research and statistics on the benefits of diversification in a total portfolio. Spreading bets across many asset classes has historically provided a smoother ride for investors and ultimately led to a higher expected value for portfolios.  

The same principle applies within asset classes. History has repeatedly shown that owning many types of stocks, rather than concentrating on one type of stock, may help maximize investors' chances of achieving return goals and limits the chances of major financial loss.

Beyond the timeless lesson from diversification, international stocks are trading at a larger discount to U.S. stocks than we've seen in a long time. History has also shown us that neither asset class has held a permanent premium when comparing U.S. to international. Lower valuations now suggest higher returns in the future, so valuation is a compelling story if you're looking for a reason to stick to your international allocation. 

Chasing performance is a significant pitfall of both novice and professional investors, but rarely leads to improved investment outcomes. The recent, prolonged outperformance of the U.S. stock market may make it tempting to think that the U.S. will continue to outperform indefinitely, but history suggests otherwise. We don't believe international equities are dead, and we'll continue to stick to the timeless practice of diversification in our portfolios.

Nicholas Boguth, CFA® is a Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth, CFA® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns.

The MSCI is an index of stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International. The index consists of more than 1,000 companies in 22 developed markets.

The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations.

Part 1: Are International Equities Dead?

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®

This is part one of a two-part blog series. We'll talk about diversification generally in this blog, then zoom in on international equity diversification during the second part of the series.

Amid geopolitical tension and pandemic backlash, equities have taken a beating; bond prices have fallen as the Fed raises rates, and even cash under the mattress is no match for inflation. Looking at our current market environment, I am reminded of the Motown classic sung by Martha and The Vandellas, "Nowhere to Run." For decades, investment professionals have preached the merits of asset allocation and portfolio diversification, but what do you do when it all stinks?

The answer is simple (but the action is hard): Stay the Course! That advice doesn't feel helpful during market turbulence, but honestly, it's the best advice for long-term investors. Let me explain…

Why Diversification Works

Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D. and Executive-in-Residence in the Personal Financial Planning Program at Utah Valley, did compelling research around portfolio diversification worth reviewing. He compared five portfolios representing different risk levels and asset allocations over 50-years, from 1970 to 2019. While there is much to glean from his research, let's focus on his comparison of two moderately aggressive portfolios (as they most closely resemble the average investor experience):  

• Traditional “Balanced” Fund: 60% US stock, 40% bond asset allocation

• Seven Asset Diversified Portfolio: 14.3% allocation to seven different asset classes (asset classes included large U.S. stock, small-cap U.S. stock, non-U.S. developed stock, real estate, commodities, U.S. bonds, and cash)

In 2019, a year dominated by the S&P 500, the Traditional "Balanced" Fund (having a larger composition of the S&P 500) predictably outperformed Seven Asset Diversified Portfolio. On the other hand, over the 50-year period, the latter had a similar annualized gross return with a lower standard deviation. An investor with a diversified portfolio experienced comparable returns without taking as much risk.

Grounding his research in numbers, Israelsen evaluated a $250,000 initial investment for each portfolio over 26 rolling 25-year periods from 1970 to 2019 and assumed a 5% initial end-of-year withdrawal with a 3% annual cost of living adjustment taken at the end of each year. The Traditional "Balanced" Fund had a median ending balance of $1,234,749 after 25 years compared to the Seven Asset Diversified Portfolio median ending balance of $1,806,565.  

The research illustrates why planners have a high conviction in diversification. The Seven Asset Diversified Portfolio provided risk mitigation (as measured by standard deviation) and supported robust returns even with annual withdrawals.

Stay Tuned

We've discussed the merits of diversification in a general sense. In part two of the series, we'll speak more directly about international equities and explain why we believe it is still a diversifier worth holding.

Jaclyn Jackson, CAP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns.

Harvesting Losses in Volatile Markets

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

During periods of market volatility and uncertainty, it's important to remain committed to our long-term financial goals and focus on what we can control. A sound long-term investment plan should expect and include a period of negative market returns. These periods are inevitable and often can provide the opportunity to tax-loss harvest, which is when you sell an investment asset at a loss to reduce your future tax liability.

While this sounds counter-intuitive, taking some measures to harvest losses strategically allows those losses to offset other realized capital gains. Any remaining excess losses are used to offset up to $3,000 of non-investment income. If losses exceed both capital gains and the $3,000 allowed to offset income, the remaining losses can be carried forward into future calendar years. This can go a long way in helping to reduce tax liability and improving your net (after-tax) returns over time. This process, however, is very delicate, and specific rules must be closely followed to ensure that the loss will be recognized for tax purposes.

Harvesting losses doesn't necessarily mean you're entirely giving up on the position. When you sell to harvest a loss, you can't purchase that security within the 30 days before and after the sale. If you do, you violate the wash sale rule, and the IRS disallows the loss. Despite these restrictions, there are several ways you can carry out a successful loss harvesting strategy.

Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategies

• Sell the position and hold cash for 30 days before re-purchasing the position. The downside here is that you're out of the investment and give up potential returns (or losses) during the 30-day window.

• Sell and immediately buy a similar position to maintain market exposure rather than sitting in cash for those 30 days. After the 30-day window is up, you can sell the temporary holding and re-purchase your original investment.

• Purchase the position more than 30 days before you try to harvest a loss. Then after the 30-day time window is up, you can sell the originally owned block of shares at the loss. Specifically identifying a tax lot of the security to sell will open this option up to you.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Harvesting

• Don't forget about reinvested dividends. They count. If you think you may employ this strategy and the position pays and reinvests a monthly dividend, you may want to consider having that dividend pay to cash and reinvest it yourself when appropriate, or you'll violate the wash sale rule.

• Purchasing a similar position and that position pays out a capital gain during the short time you own it.

• Creating a gain when selling the fund you moved to temporarily wipe out any loss you harvest. You want to make the loss you harvest meaningful or be comfortable holding the temporary position longer.

• Buying the position in your IRA. This violates the wash sale rule and is identified by social security numbers on your tax filing.

Personal circumstances vary widely, as with any specific investment and tax planning strategies. It's critical to work with your tax professional and advisor to discuss more complicated strategies like this. If you have questions or if we can be a resource, please reach out!

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.