Will Social Security be Around When I Retire?

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP® Matt Trujillo

If you're retired or close to retiring, then you've probably got nothing to worry about—your Social Security benefits will likely be paid to you in the amount you've planned on (at least that's what most of the politicians say). But what about the rest of us?

Watching the news, listening to the radio, or reading the newspaper, you've probably come across story after story on the health of Social Security. Depending on the actuarial assumptions used and the political slant, Social Security has been described as everything from a program in need of some adjustments to one in crisis requiring immediate and drastic reform.

Obviously, the underlying assumptions used can affect one's perception of the solvency of Social Security, but it's clear some action needs to be taken. Even experts disagree, however, on the best remedy. So let's take a look at what we do know.

According to the Social Security Administration (SSA), over 64 million Americans currently collect some sort of Social Security retirement, disability, or death benefit. Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, with today's workers paying the benefits for today's retirees.

How much do today's workers’ pay? Well, the first $118,500 (in 2016) of an individual's annual wages is subject to a Social Security payroll tax, with half being paid by the employee and half by the employer (self-employed individuals pay all of it). Payroll taxes collected are put into the Social Security trust funds and invested in securities guaranteed by the federal government. The funds are then used to pay out current benefits.

The amount of your retirement benefit is based on your average earnings over your working career. Higher lifetime earnings result in higher benefits, so if you have some years of no earnings or low earnings, your benefit amount may be lower than if you had worked steadily.

Your age at the time you start receiving benefits also affects your benefit amount. Currently, the full retirement age is in the process of rising to 67 in two-month increments, as shown in the following chart:

What Is Your Full Retirement Age?

You can begin receiving Social Security benefits before your full retirement age, as early as age 62. If you retire early, however, your Social Security benefit will be less than if you had waited until your full retirement age to begin receiving benefits. For example, if your full retirement age is 67, you'll receive about 30% less if you retire at age 62 than if you wait until age 67 to retire. This reduction is permanent—you won't be eligible for a benefit increase once you reach full retirement age.

Even those on opposite sides of the political spectrum can agree that demographic factors are exacerbating Social Security's problems—namely, life expectancy is increasing and the birth rate is decreasing. This means that over time, fewer workers will have to support more retirees.

According to the SSA, Social Security is already paying out more money than it takes in. By drawing on the Social Security trust fund, however, the SSA estimates that Social Security should be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until fund reserves are depleted in 2034. Once the trust fund reserves are depleted, payroll tax revenue alone should still be sufficient to pay about 77% of scheduled benefits. This means that in 2034, if no changes are made, beneficiaries may receive a benefit that is about 21% less than expected.

So the question still remains, with trouble looming on the horizon, how do we fix the system?  While no one can say for sure what will happen (and the political process is sure to be contentious), here are some solutions that have been proposed to help keep Social Security solvent for many years to come:

  • Allow individuals to invest some of their current Social Security taxes in "personal retirement accounts"
  • Raise the current payroll tax
  • Raise the current ceiling on wages currently subject to the payroll tax
  • Raise the full retirement age beyond age 67
  • Reduce future benefits, especially for wealthy retirees
  • Change the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits
  • Change how the annual cost-of-living adjustment for benefits is calculated

The financial outlook for Social Security depends on a number of demographic and economic assumptions that can change over time, so any action that might be taken and who might be affected are still unclear. No matter what the future holds for Social Security, your financial future is still in your hands. Focus on saving as much for retirement as possible, and consider various income scenarios when planning for retirement.

It's also important to understand your benefits, and what you can expect to receive from Social Security based on current law. You can find this information on your Social Security Statement, which you can access online at the Social Security website, socialsecurity.gov by signing up for a “my Social Security” account. Your statement contains a detailed record of your earnings and includes retirement, disability, and survivor's benefit estimates that are based on your actual earnings and projections of future earnings. For more details on how to sign up for an online account see our previous blog post for step by step instructions.

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Certified Financial Planner™ at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Matt currently assists Center planners and clients, and is a contributor to Money Centered.

(Source: Fast Facts & Figures about Social Security, 2015)

(Source: 2015 OASDI Trustees Report)

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