Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®
Monthly payments or a lump-sum? This is often times the “million-dollar question” for those in the workforce who still have access to a defined benefit, pension plan. As I’m sure you’re aware of, pension plans in the world we live in today are about as common as seeing someone using a Walkman to listen to music – virtually non-existent. Most companies have shifted from defined benefit retirement plans that offer a fixed payment or lump-sum upon retirement to defined contribution plans such as a 401k or 403b as a cost savings measure. However, if you’re lucky enough to be eligible for a pension upon retirement, the “hurdle rate” or “internal rate of return (IRR)” is one of the more important, quantitative aspects of the decision that you’ll have to make when deciding if it makes more sense to take the lump-sum, or receive fixed monthly payments.
What the Heck is a “Hurdle Rate”?
To keep things simple, the “hurdle rate” or “internal rate of return” is essentially the rate of return necessary for the investment of the lump-sum option to produce the same income as the fixed monthly payment option. One of the most important factors that will go into this calculation is life expectancy. Typically, the longer you expect to live, the higher the “hurdle rate” will be because the dollars will have to support your spending longer. Let’s take a look at a hypothetical example.
Tom, age 65, will be retiring in several months and has to make a decision surrounding his pension options. He can either take a $50,000/yr payment that would continue in full, even if he pre-deceases his wife, Cindy (also 65) or take a lump-sum distribution of $800,000 that could be rolled over to an IRA (tax-free) for his financial planner to manage. Tom and Cindy both have longevity in their family and feel there is a good chance at least one of them will live until age 95. If either of them lived another 30 years and they invested the $800,000 lump-sum, the IRA would have to earn a 4.65% rate of return to produce the same $50,000 of income the fixed payment option would offer. If, however, age 85 was a more realistic life expectancy for Tom and Cindy, the “hurdle rate” would decrease to 3.78% because the portfolio would not have to produce income quite as long.
Interest Rates and Other Considerations
Looking at the example above, I’m confident that most financial planners would argue that a 4.65% ‘hurdle rate’ out to age 95 is more than doable in a well-balanced, diversified portfolio over three decades. This is also documented by the popular ‘4% rule’ - click HERE to read my recent article on this very topic. However, factors such as risk tolerance, other fixed income sources, life expectancy, legacy goals, etc. all come into play when making this monumental financial decision.
Another critical factor when it comes to the lump sum vs. monthly payment option is the current interest rate environment. PPA rates, in the context of pension plans, refer to the interest rates used to discount future pension payments when calculating the present value of those payments. These rates are part of the Pension Protection Act (PPA) of 2006 and are used to determine a plan's funding status and the amount of lump sum payments available to participants. PPA uses several segment rates which are averages of corporate bond yields over different maturity periods. This sounds confusing but the concept is actually quite simple. When interest rates are extremely low like we saw in the early 2020s, this dramatically increases the value of a lump-sum option. Conversely, when interest rates dramatically increase, like we saw in 2022 and 2023, the value of the lump-sum will decrease. As a firm located in the metro-Detroit area, our team serves dozens of clients from the ‘Big Three” (Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler). Back in the summer of 2023, Ford Motor company actually sent a letter to employees informing them that after the annual ‘interest rate adjustment’ period (occurs each year in September for the Ford pension), they could expect their lump sum to decrease by as much as 25%! We had several clients (and new ones seeking guidance on this decision) ultimately push retirement up by 1-2 years because if they didn’t take the lump-sum offer ASAP, for example a lump-sum could have potentially gone from $1.5M to almost $1.1M! Now, I’m sure Ford had some good intention by informing their more ‘mature’ workers that their pension was set to decrease soon if no action was taken, however, this was clearly another way for them to entice many folks to accelerate retirement…and guess what, from our observation, it appears to have worked!
While we wish there was a clear, black and white, right or wrong answer for each client situation, it’s virtually impossible because of all the different variables that go into analyzing your options. There’s also the emotional/behavioral aspect of the decision that we must also take into consideration. As always, I suggest consulting with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) professional to help you make the right choice and also have them run various scenarios through their financial planning software to see how the different options impact your long-term strategy. This is one financial decision most folks can’t afford to get wrong, so choose wisely!
Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.
Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategies selected, including asset, allocation and diversification. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The hypothetical examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to predict the returns of any investment choices. Rates of return will vary overtime, particularly for long-term investments. There is no guarantee the selected rate of return can be achieved. Any investments may have fees and expenses that are not taken into account, which would lower the performance. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through The Center for financial Planning Inc. The Center for financial Planning Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Ser