When Volatile Markets Stop You from Moving Forward

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

The year 2022 was a historically volatile market, with returns in both the stock and bond indexes ending in negative territory for the first time in many years. While 2023 has been positive year-to-date, we are not without continued volatility and concerns, including a possible recession, tax uncertainties, inflationary concerns, and the continuing military tensions abroad in Russia and Ukraine, amongst others. 

I have a more significant number than normal of clients and prospective clients that seem "stuck" when it comes to making decisions about their money and investments in this market environment, almost appearing paralyzed by fear. The concern is that there could be greater harm in not doing anything in these situations than doing something. Let me explain.

The first situation is clients sitting in cash because that is where they feel their money is "safest." With these clients, as interest rates have begun to rise, they may still have cash sitting in bank accounts earning little to no interest and essentially "losing" buying power, as these dollars cannot possibly keep up with rising costs. Certainly, when markets are volatile, wanting to protect your hard-earned dollars from loss can be a top priority. However, not taking advantage of the rising interest rates on things like money markets, U.S. Treasuries, CDs, and instruments that can help earn extra interest on cash can harm a financial plan's long-term success. A commitment to slowly getting back into the market with a small amount of cash (via a dollar-cost-averaging strategy) can be a great way to ease someone back into a more traditional portfolio allocation once markets become more stable. In doing so, clients can get back on track to keep up with the returns they need to meet their long-term financial goals.

The second situation is clients who were relatively aggressive in their investment accounts prior to 2022 (i.e., in their former employer 401k accounts), and now that their accounts are down, they are afraid to make any changes in the portfolio allocations "until" the market comes back. Again, this is an example of seeming paralyzed by fear. It could take many years for the current account to come back, and the question is, are we in the right allocation for your current situation to be leaving it there? If not, perhaps it is better to move on and reallocate to a more appropriate allocation, or if appropriate, roll the 401k over to an IRA and have someone more actively watch it for you on an ongoing basis.

Positive markets are indeed much easier to invest in and to make decisions around. However, when we have volatile markets, we cannot get stuck and be paralyzed by fear, causing our financial plans to fail in the long run. If you or someone you know is feeling stuck and needs to talk to someone about options, please reach out to one of our financial planners for a conversation. We are always happy to help!

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Sandra D. Adams, CFP®, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Tax Loss Harvesting: The “Silver Lining” in a Down Market

Contributed by: Mallory Hunt

"The difference between the tax man and the taxidermist is the taxidermist leaves the skin." Mark Twain

Three to five years ago, we would be singing a different tune, talking about capital gains and how to minimize your tax drag during the bull market. These days, we may be looking at capital losses (like those likely carried over by many investors after 2022) from this tumultuous market. Given the recent market downturn, tax loss harvesting is more popular than ever. While investors can benefit from harvesting losses at any time, down markets may offer even greater opportunities to do so. Investors who hold securities in taxable accounts (i.e., not your retirement accounts) can harvest losses that may benefit them in a couple of different ways depending on their specific situation. So let's look at the ins and outs of the unsung hero and how to use it to your advantage.

What is Tax Loss Harvesting and How Does it Work?

Tax loss harvesting is an investment strategy that can turn a portion of your investment losses into tax offsets. The strategy is implemented by strategically selling stocks or funds at a loss to offset gains you have realized or plan to realize throughout the year from selling other investments. The result? You only need to pay taxes on your net profit or the amount you have gained minus the amount you have lost. In turn, this reduces your tax bill. When and if capital losses are greater than capital gains, investors can deduct up to $3,000 from their taxable income. This applies even if there are no investment gains to minimize for the year, and harvested losses can also be used to offset the taxes paid on ordinary income. If net losses for a particular year exceed $3,000, the balance of those losses can be carried forward and deducted on future tax returns. 

With the proceeds of the investments sold, similar (but not identical) holdings are usually purchased to help ensure your asset allocation and risk profile stay unchanged while you continue to participate in the market. These newly purchased investments are typically held for a short period of time (no less than 30 days) and are then, more often than not, sold to repurchase those holdings that we sold at a loss initially. Do take heed of the wash-sale rule to ensure the proper execution of the strategy. This rule prohibits investors from selling an investment for a loss and replacing it with the same or a "substantially identical" investment 30 days before or after the sale. The IRS provides a substantially identical definition and, unfortunately, has not been very clear on what is determined to fall into that category, leaving a lot of gray area. If the same investment is purchased before the wash sale period has expired, you can no longer write off the loss. However, the opportunity is not lost as the loss will be added back to the cost basis of the position, and the opportunity to harvest the loss at a later date is still an option.

Additional Considerations

Keep in mind that your capital gains taxes on any profits are based on how long you have held an asset. Long-term holdings held for one year or more will be taxed at long-term capital gains tax rates (0%, 15%, or 20%, depending on your taxable income and filing status), which generally tend to be lower than short-term capital gains tax rates. Short-term assets held for less than one year will be taxed at the same rate as your ordinary income (10%-37%). Investors in higher tax brackets will see the most significant benefits from tax loss harvesting as they will save more by minimizing taxable gains.

If you want to harvest losses, transactions must be completed by the end of the year you wish to realize the losses. For example, if you want to harvest losses from 2021, transactions would have needed to be completed by December 31, 2021.

In the end, tax loss harvesting is one way for investors to keep more of their investment earnings. According to researchers at MIT & Chapman University, tax loss harvesting was calculated to yield, on average, an additional 1.08% annual return each year from 1926 to 2018*. Overall, this is a time-tested strategy and potentially helpful tool, particularly during down markets. Consider speaking to your Financial Planner about how they implement this strategy, and always consult a tax advisor about your particular tax situation.

*Source: https://alo.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/An-Empirical-Evaluation-of-Tax-Loss-Harvesting-Alpha.pdf

Mallory Hunt is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She holds her Series 7, 63 and 65 Securities Licenses along with her Life, Accident & Health and Variable Annuities licenses.

While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Mallory Hunt, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Put On Your Boxing Gloves: Active v. Passive Management

Contributed by: Mallory Hunt

Tale as old as time? Not quite, but the active vs. passive management debate is a familiar one in the financial industry. An already intense deliberation has turned up the heat a couple of notches during the most recent market turmoil. So which one wins, and how does it affect you and your portfolio? Let’s start with the basics.

Active Management- What Is It?

Active management is an investment strategy in which a portfolio manager’s goal is to beat the market, take on less risk than the market, or outperform specific benchmarks. This strategy tends to be more expensive than passive management due mainly to the analysts and portfolio managers behind the scenes doing the research and frequent trading in the portfolios. 

When the market is volatile (sound familiar?), active managers have had more success in beating the market and those benchmarks. Scott Ford, the president of affluent wealth management at US Bank, claims that “active managers probably do their best work in times like this of market dislocation and stress.” In the first half of 2022, 58% of large-cap mutual funds were beating their respective benchmarks.

Even after the decline throughout the rest of the year, actively managed funds were down roughly 5% less than the S&P 500 over that same period. Much can be said regarding outperforming on the downside, and risk management is one of the potential extras investors may receive with active funds.

And Passive Management?

On the other hand, passive management is an investment strategy that focuses more on mirroring the return pattern of certain indexes and providing broad market exposure versus outperformance or risk mitigation. 

Conversely to active management, with no one handpicking stocks and trading happening less frequently, this allows passive funds to pass on lower costs to the investor and tends to assist in outperformance when put up against active funds in the long term. These funds tend to be more tax efficient and do not typically rack up much in terms of unexpected capital gains bills unless you are exiting the position, giving you control over when the capital gains are taken. In turn, the less frequent oversight provides little with regard to risk management, as investors own the best and worst companies of the index that the fund tracks. 

This easy, cheap exposure to an index has caused an influx of funds over the past four years or so, and we are at a point where passive funds (black line) have actually superseded active funds (yellow line) in the US domestic equity market as evidenced by the graph below.

So, Whose Time Is It to Shine?

As with most things, while both strategies have advantages and disadvantages, the answer may not be so black and white. The question may not be active OR passive, yet a combination of the two; this does not have to be an either/or choice. We have extensively researched the topic and implemented a balanced approach between the two in our portfolios.

Just as the market is cyclical, so is that of active and passive management. Both skilled active management and passive investing could play an important role in your investment strategy. This can be even more applicable after periods of volatility, as investors close in on meeting their investment goals.

In certain asset classes, such as US Large stocks, consistently achieving outperformance for active managers has proven more complicated, and it may make sense to rely more on passive funds. In areas like International stocks and emerging markets, it may be helpful to depend on active management where it has historically proven more beneficial.

When all is said and done, there will never be an exact strategy that works for everyone; the correct mix will still depend on you and your investment goals on a case-by-case basis.

---

Source: “Active vs. Passive: Market Pros Weigh In on the Best Strategy for Retail Investors”, Bloomberg News August 2022 

Mallory Hunt is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She holds her Series 7, 63 and 65 Securities Licenses along with her Life, Accident & Health and Variable Annuities licenses.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the Mallory Hunt, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Q1 2023 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

The year has started much stronger than it may have felt so far. Growth-style investments trounced value-style investments as tech names came back into favor. International development beat U.S. while EM equity lagged, which was contributed by a weaker U.S. dollar. Small company stocks lagged large company stocks mainly due to a heavier technology exposure for large company indexes like the S&P 500. In contrast, the smaller company indexes had a heavier weighting in financials. The Morningstar asset allocation category of funds had 50-70% stock and 30-50% bonds, so on average, a 60% stock/40% bond allocation was up about 3.9% in the first quarter of the year.

Speaking of financials, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a lender to some technology companies and startups, became the largest bank to fail since 2008. Signature Bank became the 3rd largest bank to fail within hours of the SVB failure.  

How did they get to the point of failure? SVB was a commercial bank that specialized in servicing the venture capital community. Over the last few years, there has been much activity in venture capital fundraising, and many deposits flowed into the bank in late 2020 and 2021. SVB's balance sheet at this time went from $70 Billion to $200 Billion, while lending was only a fraction of what they did. So they had excess levels of liquidity and took most of that money to purchase treasuries. Their intention was to hold to maturity, so while they didn't have credit risk exposure, they had a lot of interest rate risk. During 2022 they experienced deposit outflows as venture capital companies were experiencing a lot of spending outflows and not as many inflows. At the same time, interest rates increased, causing unrealized losses in these bonds. As money continued to flow out of the bank, this caused a liquidity issue which forced the bank to sell treasuries at a loss to meet withdrawal demands. So ultimately, high amounts of interest rate risk and sector concentration were the main reasons for failure.

What about contagion? It's important to remember that banks do fail almost every year. Usually, they are caused by Fraud or mismanagement. But there are times when something bigger is going on that can cause multiple banks to fail. In the chart below you can see the largest amount of failures happened in the 1980s due to the farm crisis, oil prices, and the S&L crisis. The great recession was another big wave of bank failures.

Source: https://www.bankingstrategist.com/history-of-us-bank-failures

In the case of the most recent failures, the government acted quickly over the weekend to create policies to back-stop banks that may need to sell treasuries to meet customer withdrawals. These policies allow banks to take cheap loans backed by those treasuries for a short term to meet depositor withdrawal demand if needed without booking losses.

Are my deposits with you covered by FDIC? We diligently review FDIC coverages for our clients. If you're unfamiliar with the Raymond James Bank Deposit program, here is a primer. One account at Raymond James through the Raymond James Bank Deposit Program (RJBDP) can provide up to $3,000,000 ($6,000,000 for joint accounts) of total FDIC coverage. Raymond James does the work behind the scenes as available cash is deposited into interest-bearing deposit accounts. RJ uses a waterfall process to ensure higher cash levels for clients than the traditional limits. With the Raymond James Bank Deposit Program, uninvested cash is deposited into interest-bearing deposit accounts at up to 20 banks, providing this increased FDIC eligibility.

Raymond James will deposit up to $245,000 ($490,000 for joint accounts of two or more) in each bank on a predetermined list. Another way to qualify for more coverage is by holding deposits in different ownership categories (account types such as an individual account, a trust account, and an IRA all qualify for their own FDIC coverage).

Is my money safe in Raymond James Bank? Questions about how Raymond James is positioned in this stressed environment? Watch this video.

Cash management is a much more active process than in the past. Short-term treasuries, Certificate of Deposits, and money market mutual funds offer attractive rates for the right investor. While these options don't carry FDIC coverage, they shouldn't be ignored. Talk to your advisor to explore what might be right for you if you're carrying large cash balances at your bank with no immediate need of utilizing the cash.

The U.S. government is close to its limit (Debt ceiling), where it can no longer borrow additional funds. Several months ago, Congress had to begin using "extraordinary measures" to fulfill some obligations, and the clock is ticking for them to be able to come to an agreement and raise the debt ceiling so that spending can continue without pause. Estimates show these measures run out as early as June. The issue is typical (see other times when the debt limit was raised in the graphic below), but a divided Congress can make the issue more contentious. The main holdup is that Republican opponents want to see spending cuts before the ceiling is raised, and spending cuts are not easy for anyone to agree upon. 

https://www.pgpf.org/analysis/2023/01/debt-ceiling-update-whats-at-stake

Expect volatility as deadlines to meet obligations approach and the market's price is in more uncertainty. The direct impact and potentially biggest worry for investors is the risk of the U.S. government defaulting on its Treasury debt. Additional pain in the form of spending cuts would have a direct economic impact, with uncertain outcomes and hard decisions being made on where to cut the spending. There is no way to predict the future, but history as a guide would suggest a deal is reached and the ceiling is once again raised as it has been every other time the issue has come up in our lifetimes. We lean on diversification, conservative portfolio positioning, and a sound financial plan during times of uncertainty, and we're always here to answer any questions you might have on the topic.

Is ESG Investing Political? Check out our upcoming webinar on April 19th!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results.

Maximizing your 401k Contributions: Nuances to Save you Money

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®

When starting a career, we are always told to contribute at least the minimum needed to get the full company match in our 401k (typically between 4% and 8%, depending on how your plan is structured). “Never throw away free money!” is a phrase we use quite often with children of clients who are starting that first job out of college.

But what about those who are well established in their career and fully maximizing 401k contributions ($22,500 for 2023, $29,000 if you are over the age of 50)? They should not have to worry about not receiving their full employer match, right? Well, depending on how your 401k plan is structured at work, the answer is yes! 

Let me provide an example to explain what I am referring to:
Let’s say Heather (age 54) earns a salary of $325,000 and elects to contribute 18% of her salary to her 401k. Because Heather has elected to contribute a percentage of her salary to her 401k instead of a set dollar figure, she will max out her contributions ($29,000) by the end of June each year. Let us also assume that Heather receives a 5% employer match on her 401k – this translates into $16,250/yr ($325,000 x 5%). If Heather does not have what is known as a “true up” feature within her plan, her employer will stop making matching contributions on her behalf halfway through the year – the point at which she maxed out for the year and contributions stopped. In this hypothetical example, not having the “true up” feature would cost Heather over $8,000 in matching dollars for the year!

So, how can you ensure you receive the matching dollars you are fully entitled to within your 401k? 
The first step I recommend is reaching out to your benefits director or 401k plan provider and asking them if your plan offers the “true up” feature. If it does, you are in the clear – regardless of when you max out for the year with your contributions, you will be receiving the full company match you are entitled to. 

If your plan does not offer the “true up” feature and you plan on maximizing your 401k contributions for the year, I would strongly suggest electing to defer a dollar amount instead of a percentage of your salary. For example, if you are over 50, plan on contributing $29,000 to your 401k this year, and if you are paid bi-weekly, elect to defer $1,115.38 every pay period ($1,115.38 x 26 pay periods = $29,000). Doing so will ensure you maximize your benefit by the end of December and not end up like Heather, who maxes out by the end of June and potentially loses out on significant matching dollars.  

Subtle nuances such as the “true up” 401k feature exist all around us in financial planning, and they can potentially have a large impact on the long-term success of your overall financial game plan. If you have questions on how to best utilize your employer’s 401k or retirement savings vehicle, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us for guidance. 

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

Examples are hypothetical and are not representative of every employer's retirement plan. Not all employers offer matching 401(k) contributions. Please contact your employer's benefits department or retirement plan provider for terms on potential matching contributions.

Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.

Finding the Right Asset Allocation

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®

**Register for our LIVE investment event or our investment WEBINAR on Feb. 23!

Most delicious meals start with a great recipe. A recipe tells you what ingredients are needed to make the meal and, importantly, how much of each ingredient is needed to make the meal taste good. Just like we need to know the right mix of ingredients for a tasty meal, we also need to know the asset allocation mix that makes our investment journey palatable.

Determining the Right Mix

Asset allocation is considered one of the most impactful factors in meeting investment goals. It is the foundational mix of asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, and cash alternatives) used to structure your investment plan; your investment recipe. There are many ways to determine your asset allocation. Asking the following questions will help:

• What are my financial goals?

• When do I need to achieve my financial goals?

• How much money will I be investing now or over time to facilitate my financial goals?

Seasoning to Taste

Now, suppose equity markets were down 20%, and your portfolio was suffering. Would you be tempted to sell your stock positions and purchase bonds instead? Figuring out an asset allocation based on goals, time horizons, and resources is essential but means nothing if you can’t stick with it. A recipe may instruct us to “season to taste” for certain ingredients. In other words, some things are subjective, and our feelings greatly influence whether we have a negative or positive experience. For asset allocation, understanding your risk tolerance helps uncover personal attitudes about your investment strategy during challenging market scenarios. It gives insight into your ability or willingness to lose some or all of your investment in exchange for greater potential returns. When deciding our risks tolerances, we must understand the following: 

• The risks and rewards associated with the investment tools we use.

• How we deal with stress, loss, or unforeseen outcomes

• The risks associated with investing

Following the Recipe

When we follow a recipe closely, our meal usually turns out how we expected. In the same way, committing to your asset allocation increases the likelihood of meeting your investment goals. Understanding your risk tolerances can reveal tendencies to undermine your asset allocation (i.e., selling or buying asset classes when we should not). Fortunately, there are a few strategies you can employ to help stay on track. 

• If you are risk-averse, diversifying your investments between and among asset categories can help improve your returns for the levels of risks taken.

• If you find yourself buying or selling assets at the wrong time, routinely (annually, quarterly, or semi-annually) rebalancing your portfolio will force you to trim from the asset classes that have performed well in the past and purchase investments that have the potential to perform well in the future.

• If you find yourself chasing performance or buying investments when they are expensive, buying investments at a fixed dollar amount over a scheduled time frame, dollar cost averaging, can help you to purchase more shares of an investment when it is down relative to other assets (prices are low) and less shares when it is up relative to other assets (more expensive). Ultimately, this can lower your average share cost over time.

Finding the right asset allocation for you is one of the most important aspects of developing your investment plan. Luckily, understanding investment goals, time horizons, resources, and risk tolerances can help you mix the best recipe of asset categories to make your investment journey deliciously successful.

Jaclyn Jackson, CAP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and are not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment or investment decision. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy or strategies employed. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. Dollar-cost averaging does not ensure a profit or protect against loss, investors should consider their financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels.

A 2022 Snapshot

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Diversification

• The S&P 500 ended 2022 negative by 18.11%, while the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index was down 13%, and international investments, as represented by the MSCI EAFE, were negative by 14.45%

• Stocks and bonds both being negative for 12-month returns is exceptionally rare and has only occurred in 2.4% of 12-month rolling periods in the past 45 years.

• Many well-known target data and diversified strategies allocated roughly 60% stocks and 40% bonds down in the 17-18% range for the year. (Source: Morningstar)

Fixed Income

• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in 2022 to combat inflation.

• Interest rates moved from 0-.25% all the way up to 4.25-4.50%

• This year's sharp increase in rates and, thus, negative performance in bonds has been an anomaly and is unlikely to repeat.

Volatility Driven By

• Russia/Ukraine conflict has lasted far longer than anyone had predicted.

• Inflation is retracing its steps stubbornly slow.

• Interest rate increases.

• China's zero covid policy up until their elections. They then moved from one extreme to the other by relaxing all restrictions following unrest from the population. Now, they are dealing with a wave of Omicron hitting the population.

• Cryptocurrency woes.

Elections and Politics

• Split congress suggests there will be no major legislation this year. Gridlock is usually positive for equity markets, but debt ceiling expansion could cause a standoff, and we may hear rumblings of a government shutdown in the fall. In the past, this has not had a long-term impact for markets.

• Secure Act 2.0 – Check out this blog written by Kali Hassinger for more information. We will also take a few minutes to review the changes at our upcoming investment event.

Interest rates

The biggest story of 2022 has been how drastically the yield curve has shifted. Check out the chart below showing where the yield curve was at the end of 2021 (Dark gray line) and where it finished in November this year (blue line). The shaded area shows the range of the yield curve over the past ten years. Not only is the yield curve no longer upward-sloping, as it is currently inverted, but it also sits near the high end of yields we have seen over the past decade. While this created short-term negative returns for bonds with both short and long duration, yields are again a meaningful part of future projected returns. Bonds continue to deserve a meaningful allocation in most portfolios.

Inflation

Another major headline of the year has been inflation. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has shifted the yield curve aggressively by raising short-term rates this year in an effort to combat inflation. We are seeing gathering evidence of inflation coming down with improving supply chains and gas prices coming down. This evidence gave the Fed confidence to slow to a 50 bps increase in December as opposed to the string of .75% increases leading up to this past month. The most recent inflation reading came in at 7.1% for December. You can see in the chart below the month-by-month print of CPI throughout 2022 influencing the Fed decisions.

Looking under the hood at what drives inflation numbers, we can see port congestion has also improved, which is a lead indicator of inflation. Remember in early 2022 when I shared a chart showing 100+ ships waiting to get into the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach? Now, it hovers below ten – bottlenecks are reducing. The chart below shows the relationship between slower delivery times (blue line) equating to higher inflation (gray line) and vice versa, with faster delivery times equating to lower inflation. 

Chart of the Week: Source: BLS, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

We should see inflationary pressure continue to lessen in the coming months. A reversal of China's zero Covid policy will also start to decrease delivery times of items coming out of China.

Consumer trends are also a leading indicator you can watch, and right now, they are walking a thin line as credit card balances are at all-time highs while savings rates are at all-time lows. This can not continue perpetually, so as consumers slow their spending, we should see inventories build and prices decline as retailers struggle to clear shelves.

As the Fed tries to move toward a target of 2% inflation, risks for the Fed's overtightening are my next worry. Tightening too much could determine if the economy goes into a recession and how deep of a recession. While a mild to moderate recession is likely priced in now, it is important to remain defensive with a well-diversified portfolio.

Housing Affordability and Inflation

With mortgage rates rising, many worry about home affordability and a retreat in home prices. While higher rates do not impact existing mortgages, they will impact new mortgages. People will be less likely to sell their homes as their rates are locked in at such low levels, meaning there will be a lack of homes on the market for new household formation. Typically, when the U.S. falls into recession, housing drops with it. Most of us remember home values falling swiftly and significantly during the Great Recession. A drop like that is unlikely to occur this time, as there are many factors that are different now. Mainly, there is not a glut of homes as there was in 2008-09. Demand for homes is still much higher than the supply due to the lack of building over the past decade, so while prices may come down from current levels, they will not be by much.

2023 should bring with it continued inflation relief and the potential for recession. We continue to remain cautious by holding a shortened duration in our bond portfolios and holding some extra cash for a time when the technicals of the equity markets are pointing toward downside exhaustion and healthy bottoming activity. We continue to rebalance as needed, watch our trusted indicators, and maintain our process over trying to predict what is to come. We know investing in a year like 2022 can be challenging to stay disciplined through, and we are humbled and honored by the trust you place in us to guide you through these times. 

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Holding onto Cash? Here Are a Few Options to Get Some Interest!

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

As Financial Planners, we often talk to clients about the importance of maintaining a cash reserve for emergencies or unforeseen expenses. In past years, the return on cash has been minimal, if not close to nothing, but throughout 2022, we have seen interest rates continually rise. This presents the opportunity to get some interest on cash! There are several options available, so which is most appropriate for you? Where to put cash savings, as with other investments, depends on your time horizon and goals.  

Money Market Accounts

Money Market accounts are offered through a bank or credit union, often offering greater interest than a typical savings account. The rates paid by a money market are based on current interest rates, and the rate you receive can adjust periodically. These rates are often more attractive than savings, but transaction limits and high minimum account balance requirements can exist. Rates can also be tiered, meaning the higher your balance, the higher the interest paid. These accounts are easily accessible, sometimes offering check-writing abilities, and insured through the FDIC up to $250,000. 

CDs

Short Term Certificates of Deposit, or CDs, purchased through a bank or credit union, are also FDIC insured but allow less liquidity than Money Market accounts. CDs earn a fixed rate over a pre-determined amount of time, ranging from a few months to several years. Accessing money before the maturity timeline can result in penalties, so be sure you will not need to access the funds before the required period.

Money Market Mutual Funds 

Money Market Funds hold a basket of securities that can generate gains and losses that will be passed onto shareholders. The investments held, however, are usually considered short-term and low-risk, such as U.S. Treasury bonds and high-quality corporate bonds. Unlike the Money Market accounts discussed above, the FDIC does not insure these funds. 

They are similar to Money Market accounts, however, in that interest rates fluctuate. Although there is an inherent risk with these funds, shareholders should not experience excessive price fluctuation, which can be held for short periods. Investors must trade into and out of these funds, so there can be a lag of a few days in order to access the account balance. 

Treasury Securities and Bonds

Treasury-backed securities have started to pay attractive rates as the Fed has continually raised interest rates throughout the year. These are backed by the U.S. government, which is another way of saying that they are generally considered some of the safest investments available. Treasury Bills are short-term securities with several term options ranging from four weeks to a year. Like CDs, you should only invest funds that you are confident you will not need to access before the maturity date, but these can be resold on the market if necessary. 

I-Bonds, sold through Treasury Direct, have become attractive for the first time in many years. These bonds must be purchased through TreasuryDirect.gov, and the amount an individual can purchase is limited to $10,000 per year (with additional allowances if you purchase paper I-Bonds). These must be held for a year, but if you cash them in earlier than five years, you lose three months of interest. 

If you are still determining which option is best for you or if you are interested in investing cash, be sure to reach out to your planner!

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The forgoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities. Be sure to contact a qualified professional regarding your particular situation before making any investment or withdrawal decision. The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.

What Goldman Sachs Thinks About Markets: Conference Key Takeaways

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®

Due diligence meetings are a core part of the Center’s investment research strategy.  They give us a chance to vet investment strategies for our clients. They also allow us to get data from global financial institutions and industry leaders that most advisors typically don’t have the resources to aggregate themselves. 

This fall, I attended the Professional Investor Forum at the Goldman Sachs Conference Center in New York. The three-day conference highlighted research from the company’s thought leaders about markets and the current economic landscape. 

Here are Goldman’s views on a few questions that have been top of mind for investors.

Q: Are we facing another “Great Recession”?

Investor anxiety is reminiscent of the Great Recession, but the root of market volatility is quite different. Market volatility in 2007-2008 was triggered by unhealthy company fundamentals, particularly in the financial sector. The volatility was micro-driven.

Current market volatility is macro-driven with inflation and fed policy expectations largely dictating the investor experience. Since company fundamentals are relatively healthy, Goldman believes a recession would be shallow – especially compared to the Great Recession.

Q:  What’s going on with equity markets?

Rates and higher bond yields have affected the US equity market. Today, the market trades at around 15 times forward earnings compared to 21 times forward earnings at the beginning of the year. A lot of this compression is coming from high growth companies, particularly “long-duration” tech companies where the valuation of the company is attributable to the earnings that are well into the future. 

The gap between shorter-duration stocks and longer-duration stocks has been very significant in terms of the relative performance. This is a tough environment for long-duration stocks because rates will likely stay high. Companies with more nearer-term visibility on their cash flows are likely to do better in this environment. (There are tech companies with more near-term visibility, so no need to dump all tech from your portfolio.)

Inflation clarity is important because that helps us understand the direction of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate policy. Greater investor confidence about corporate earnings might be the impetus for equity volatility to decline - freeing equity prices to move higher.

Equity markets are figured out when inflation is figured out.

Q: How low can equity markets go?

Goldman Sachs expects the inflation rate to lower and for markets to recover in late 2023. This is how they see the timeline unfolding:

• The Fed will be raising rates several more times this year and early part of 2023.

• At the end of the year, the S&P 500 will likely close somewhere between 3,400 and 3,600, modestly down from the current level.

• Markets will be down in the early part of next year until we see inflation data trending lower.

• Equity market moves higher by the end of 2023.

Note, there is a case to be made for a recession. In a recessionary scenario (where the Fed hikes so much that we move into recessionary territory), Goldman believes we could hit a low of around 3,150, which is meaningfully below where we are now.

Q: When will market volatility lighten up?

Goldman Sachs Economics expects the rate of inflation (as measured by core PCE) to decelerate from close to 5 percent to roughly 3 percent. If that actually happens, they believe equity prices will do okay. Nevertheless, that won’t be clear until sometime in the middle of 2023, so uncertainty will probably continue another six months.

Q:  Where should I be invested?

According to Goldman, we’ve move from a “there is no alternative” or TINA environment to a “there are reasonable alternatives” or TARA environment.

If investors wanted yield they would invest in equities, especially US equities. However, chasing yield through equities leaves the door open to greater risk vulnerability. With interest rates on short-term cash positions starting to approach 4 percent, investors can get an attractive rate of return from an income point of view. In the words of David Kostin, Goldman’s Chief US Equity Strategist, “the idea of pure cash returns pushing almost 4 percent and the expectation that the Fed Funds rate will be somewhere between 4.25 and 4.5 percent by the early part of next year, that would suggest that there are reasonable alternatives (to equities), just on the cash positions alone.”

To be clear, this does NOT mean one should sell all of their equities and buy short-term cash positions. Equity positions in your portfolio should generally align with your strategic allocation. This is suggesting that investors don’t have to take unwarranted risks with over-exposure to equity markets to get yield because there are reasonable alternatives (TARA). Short-term cash positions are one example of this. The key here is that now, investors don’t have to over-do-it with risks when looking for yields.

Fed tightening is a big focus, but other parts of financial conditions are tightening too - higher bond yields, wider credit spreads, stronger dollar, lower equity prices. All of these contribute to tightening financial conditions. The type of companies in the equity market that do well in this environment are companies with stronger balance sheets, companies with higher return metrics, return on equity, return on capital, companies with less drawdown in terms of their share prices, more stable growth in terms of different metrics. In short, “quality” companies are likely to help investors in the uncertain environment of tightening financial conditions.

Jaclyn Jackson, CAP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns. Performance of hypothetical investments do not reflect transaction costs, taxes, or returns that any investor actually attained and may not reflect the true costs, including management fees, of an actual portfolio. Changes in any assumption may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. Illustrations does not include fees and expenses, which would reduce returns.

Retiring in a Bear Market Doesn’t Have to be Scary

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

Retiring in a poorly performing stock market can be scary, but here are some things to consider that may take some of the fear away:

• Bear markets come and go. However, while they are occurring, they are almost always uncomfortable for investors.

• Since 1950 there have been ten bear markets (defined as a 20% drop in major U.S. stock market indexes).

• Fortunately, as proven by history, they are also temporary.

• Investors can often weather the storm without changing their investment allocation much at all.

• If you are compelled to make changes, do so incrementally – avoid panic selling and major reallocations if you can. Patience can pay off since there is usually a bull market in the not-too-distant future!

Source: First Trust

It is also important to make sure you meet with your advisor at least once a year to review your circumstances and ensure your cash needs will be met for the next 24 months. You should also always be reviewing your asset allocation to make sure whatever cash needs are on the short-term horizon are set aside in more safe and stable investments. It would help if you also had some growth assets so your principal could keep pace with inflation and maintain purchasing power over time.

Our team at The Center is always here for any questions or concerns you may have. Please reach out to us anytime; we're happy to help!

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® A frequent blog contributor on topics related to financial planning and investment, he has more than a decade of industry experience.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Matt Trujillo, CFP®, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.