Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Inflation is common in developed economies and, generally, more healthy than deflation. When consumers expect prices to rise, they go out and purchase goods and services now rather than waiting until later. While it is likely that inflation will continue to trend higher here in the U.S. in the coming months the question is “Can this harm my portfolio’s ability to help me achieve my goals?” Consider the following factors contributing to or detracting from the inflation outlook.
Our investment committee has discussed inflation at length for several years now. Here are some highlights from our discussion.
Factors influencing inflation in the short term and long term:
Large amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus
There has been a record amount of stimulus being pushed into the pockets of American’s by the government. The consumer is healthier than it has ever been and demanding to purchase.
Supply chain disruptions
Whether due to shipping constraints or lack of manpower, companies can’t make enough of many different products to meet current demand. Does this sound familiar? It should because a year ago all we could talk about is not having enough toilet paper and disinfectant wipes. People were paying big prices for even small bottles of hand sanitizer.
Fast forward one year and the shelves are now overflowing with these items and prices have normalized. Once people have spent the money they accumulated over the past year, demand will likely return to normal.
Starting from a very low base
The point to which we are comparing current inflation is one of the biggest influences on the calculation. Right now, for year-over-year inflation, we are comparing to an economy that had very little to no economic activity occurring. When you compare something to nothing, it looks much larger than it actually is. A year from now we will have a more normal comparison base.
Wage inflation
One of the biggest factors in the lack of inflation over the past decade was a lack of wage inflation. We are now seeing wage inflation because companies can’t hire enough people to meet the current demand for their goods or services. Wages are going up trying to entice people back to work. Once government transfer payments slow or run out, many of these individuals will likely return to the workforce again causing wages to return to more normal levels (although it is possible wages settle at a new base that is higher than they were before).
A complete lack of velocity of money
While banks are flush with cash, they still aren’t lending. Why? Because the banks, due to banking regulation changes over 10 years ago, only want to loan large amounts of money to someone who is creditworthy. The creditworthy consumer is so healthy that they don’t need to borrow money.
Technology increasing productivity
A large portion of the country just increased productivity by reducing commute time over the past year via remote working capabilities. Companies that would never have considered allowing remote work now find themselves reducing office space and making permanent shifts in working style. This is just one example of how growth in technology can increase productivity which, over time, puts downward pressure on prices.
It is important to understand what investments could do well if we are surprised and inflation is around the corner.
First of all, your starting point is very important. Are you starting from low inflation or are your inflation levels already elevated? The answer is we are starting from a long stretch of time with very low inflation rates. So in the chart below you would reference the lower two boxes. Then you need to ask, is inflation rising or falling. Low and rising inflation is the bottom left box. You may be surprised to see the strong average performance from varying asset classes in this scenario. Inflation that is reasonable and expected can be a very positive scenario for many asset classes.
In our Second Quarter investment commentary we will dive a little deeper into the asset classes that perform well and how we think about incorporating that into your portfolios!
Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.