Where Did It Go?

Do you find that you ever have too much month at the end of your money? Be honest, in the blink of an eye, extra money seems to vanish. For those still in their earnings years, one of the keys to accumulating wealth, thus achieving your financial objectives, is to stop the disappearing act. Transfer dollars from your monthly cash flow to your net worth statement by adding funds to your savings accounts, taxable investment accounts, and retirement accounts (such as employer sponsored 401k and 403b accounts) and IRA’s (Traditional or ROTH).  Another smart move is to use funds from your monthly cash flow to pay down debt … also improving your net worth statement.

Saving money and improving your overall financial position is easier said than done.  The truth is that saving money is more than simply a function of dollars and cents; it requires discipline and perseverance.  You may have heard the strategy of “paying yourself first”.  The most effective way to pay yourself first is to set up automatic savings programs.  The 401k (or other employer plan) is the best way to do this – but you can also establish similar automated savings plans with brokerage companies and financial institutions such as banks or credit unions.

Just as important, be intentional with your 2012 spending.  Rather than thinking in terms of a budget (which sounds a lot like dieting) – think about establishing a “spending plan” instead. Planning your expenses as best you can will help ensure that you spend money on the things that add value to your life and should help keep your money from mysteriously vanishing at the end of the month.

For a free resource to help track your cash flow email: Timothy.Wyman@CenterFinPlan.com

Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.

Sandy Adams Appointed to the Wayne State University Institute of Gerontology’s Board of Visitors

Sandy Adams was recently appointed to the Board of Visitors for the Institute of Gerontology (IOG) at Wayne State University.  Sandy, who also serves on the Legal and Financial Advisory committee for the IOG, has served as the liaison to the Board of Visitors for the last two years.  “I am very excited to be involved with the Institute of Gerontology through the Board of Visitors to assist in further research, outreach and advocacy for older adults,” Sandy expressed, of her recent appointment.

 The Board of Visitors is a selected group of individuals with a commitment to and support of the mission of the Institute of Gerontology at Wayne State University.  They serve the IOG on a volunteer basis by assisting in fundraising activities, providing advisory council to the Director and select staff and by acting as ambassadors in the community. Center for Financial Planning, Inc.  continues to be a partner of the Institute of Gerontology,supporting the IOG’s mission to conduct research in the social and behavioral sciences and cognitive neuroscience to issues of aging and urban health.  The IOG uses this research to provide further education to the professional community and the public through outreach and professional partnership.

Salad Surprise

A friend of mine, let’s call him Tom, is constantly put on a diet by his wife.  One of the ways Tom appeases her is by ordering taco salads in a restaurant instead of a traditional entree.  She assumes he’s being healthy, but little does she know, some of the worst taco salads can pack in as many as 1,700 calories and over 100 grams of fat! Someone needs to do her homework.

As important as it is to the success of dieting to understand what you are eating, it is equally important to understand what you are buying when making an investment.  The due diligence process is initiated with the establishment of current tactical allocation, which you can read more about here.  With the asset classes identified, it is time to start doing your homework by researching to identify the appropriate securities to fill each asset bucket.

• Define and Research:  Review asset category and characteristics of the category.  Consider opportunities and risks.
• Know what you own:  Look at a prospectus or Statement filed with the SEC to make sure you are buying what you think you are buying (is it a healthy salad or, in Tom’s case, the equivalent of 37 strips of bacon?). 
• Quantitative Review: Review of performance and risk characteristics of investment options within the category.  Criteria may include:
  • Look at performance standouts over different time periods – 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
  • Review performance in difficult time periods (bear markets or periods of performance difficulty for the asset category). 
  • Check out standard deviation, or risk, relative to similar investments.
• Establish reasons for conviction:  This can prevent you from falling into a common investor behavior of selling the investment when it is out of favor (which is usually the best time to purchase it).

Do your investment “waistline” a favor and do your homework. Don’t be fooled by taco salads, make sure you are really getting what you want when it comes to investing by having a defined buying process or talking to your financial planner today about establishing one that is appropriate for you!

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Hello 2012!

If you extrapolate last year's lessons, diversification could be seen as the biggest threat to a portfolio. Traditional US Large Company Stocks and US Government Bonds sprinted past limping "diversifiers" such as international stocks, non-traditional bonds, and alternative investments. Over history, clients have generally benefited from diversification. But this pillar of investment discipline turned into a headwind last year.

For equity investors, flat domestic returns did not tell the whole story. Consider that the return of the S&P 500 index last year was 2.1% including dividends. US Companies took a roller coaster ride to get back to their starting point - disappointing summer news was eventually overcome by maintained slow growth and exceptional corporate profits.

Source: Morningstar, Inc.

For investors,

staying the course was a challenging proposition last year. The return landscape was even more challenging for portfolios with exposure to international markets. A natural disaster and nuclear situation in Japan first set things on edge followed by enduring concerns about debt which continues to engulf the Eurozone.

Bonds were king in 2011

with long bonds issued by the US government ruling the roost. Key interest rates found new lows (insert hyperlink to interest rate chart from RJ). This was helpful if you were in the position to refinance your mortgage and was also helpful from a portfolio perspective. However, those investors who anticipate a rate rise in the future and have positioned portfolios to attempt to minimize the risks did not fully participate in the boom for fixed income investments.

Our resident economist,

Angela Palacios, CFP ®, notes that unemployment has continued its downward trend since August and is currently at 8.5% nationally which is the lowest level in more than three years according to the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of labor Statistics. Retail, manufacturing, transportation and health care are a few of the sectors enjoying job growth. Based on initial claims so far this month it also looks like we will see another decline in the rate even though it is normally high in the first two months of the year with temporary holiday workers being laid off. This reduction in unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy showing the pickup in economic growth even though it may be slow.

Short-term lessons don't always help investors focused on the long-term results. We still believe there are critical benefits to diversification and maintain portfolios with a variety of distinctive asset categories and strategies. Our process-driven investment strategy is also designed to avoid performance-chasing sirens in favor of disciplined investing.

Sincerely,

Melissa Joy, CFS

Partner, Director of Investments

Financial Advisor, RJFS

Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that's generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Index measures changes in the fixed-rate debt issues rated investment grade or higher by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's, or Fitch Investor's Service, in that order. The Aggregate Index is comprised of the Government/Corporate, the Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Asset-Backed Securities indices. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow”, is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Russell 1000: Measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East): A free-float adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States and Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss. Investments related to a specific sector, where companies engage in business related to a particular industry, are subject to fierce competition, the possibility of products and services being subject to rapid obsolescence, and limited diversification. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss, including the loss of all principal.

U.S. Stocks - 1st Quarter 2012

Last year the S&P 500 – a bell-weather for American stocks – was statistically unchanged from a price perspective.  When you add in dividends, the index was up 2%.  You may be feeling a lot more bumps and bruises from the year in stocks than a flat 12-month return would indicate.  Markets had wild swings and Ron Griess of the Chart Store (Hat Tip ritholtz.com) reports that 2011 was the seventeenth most volatile year for the S&P 500 since 1928.  Perhaps not surprisingly, 2008 and 2009 were even more volatile.  All of this has presented a behavioral challenge for investors with the temptation to time the market or get off the bumpy ride.

As with anything, it is very difficult to predict volatility.  It’s best to plan, though, for more ups and downs.  Volatility seems to come in patches with 15 of the 17 most volatile years for the S&P coming between 1929 and 1939 or between 2000 and 2011.  Managing your investment behavior through allocation planning, regular rebalancing, or the advice of an investment professional is critical to help avoid paralysis or bad timing.

Returns of large US companies surged ahead of their smaller peers. While large company S&P returned 2%, the Russell 2000, a common index for small companies, was down 4%.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average, even bigger than the S&P as measured by market capitalization, returned 8%.  Still, smaller stocks have outpaced large stocks cumulatively since March 2009 (when using the same indexes).

Many have watched for large companies to outperform due to compelling valuations and diversified revenue sources.  This trend may continue with strong profit margins, cash on the books, and still interesting valuations relative to larger stocks.

Dividend-paying companies, especially those outside of the financial sector, rewarded their investors handsomely in 2011.   Dividends fulfilled their promise last year helping both the total return of companies as well as raising interest from investors for their companies themselves.

We still like dividends for reasons Angie Palacios, CFP® I explained in a recent blog post.  Dividend yields are attractive relative to interest that bonds pay across the world.  Furthermore, as more boomers retire and seek a more steady income stream (no small feat in a low-yield world), a strategy that includes dividends may remain attractive relative to their cash-hoarding peers. *Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by a company’s board of directors.

International Markets - 1st Quarter 2012

International allocations are increasing portions of investment portfolios.  This isn’t a fluke.  International companies represent an increasing market cap of the world’s stock relative to the states.  Over the last 10 years, international investments almost doubled the returns of US investments (33.4% for the S&P 500 vs. 64.8% for the MSCI EAFE per JP Morgan Asset Management).  Blame for foreign investment woes were most strongly linked to a European debt debacle, Japan’s earthquake natural disaster, and concerns of slowing growth in China.

The world’s challenges are hard to ignore, especially in Europe.  Austerity is a big hurdle for economies to overcome.  Companies have been beat up along with their governments and we believe that longer term there may be compelling opportunities around the world.  The role of international investments in a diversified portfolio remains relevant today in our mind in spite of disappointing recent returns.

Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions art hos of Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.

Bonds - 1st Quarter 2012

Source: Morningstar, Inc.

It seems like bonds are defying gravity at this point.  Entering last year at near record lows for yields, fixed income, as measured by the widely recognized BarCap Aggregate Bond Index, returned 7.8% vs. virtually flat returns for large-cap stocks as measured by the S&P 500. As bond returns continued to levitate, yields deflated to new record levels.  US debt was downgraded mid-year, but markets asserted a strong vote of confidence with double-digit returns for long treasury bonds.

Where to next? Past returns are not a predictor of future performance – that’s what we’re told to say by our compliance officers and in my mind, this disclaimer could not be more apropos. With interest rates telegraphed to remain low, the Fed may delay dreaded rising rates, but the ability to replicate the returns of 2011 will be a major surprise. Diversification away from a traditional mix of government bonds may help, depending on your situation.

Diversification - 1st Quarter 2012

Our recent blog post titled “Death of Diversification?” noted that 2011 was an exceptionally poor year for diversified investment positions. You may ask what we meant by diversified. For our purposes, we were referring to asset classes that are not US stocks as measured by the S&P 500 and US bonds as measured by the BarCap Aggregate Bond indexes. 

A similar, although altogether more painful time period was 2008 where all but the most risk-averse assets were in free-fall. Past performance does not predict future returns, but history has a funny way of rhyming. In 2009, as markets determined the world was not ending, diversified portfolios were richly rewarded.

January’s returns offer a peek into the behavior of markets coming out of a period where diversification has not worked.

In the chart above we compare US Stocks & US Bonds to common diversifiers. This illustrates (on an admittedly smaller scale) another inflection point for diversification where additional asset classes contributed positively to returns similar to the time period starting in March 2009.

The jury is out as to whether this period favoring diversification will sustain itself through 2012. At some point the diversification ship will right itself and reward investors that hang on with variety’s smoothing effect.

* Large Cap Stocks – S&P 500, International Stocks – MSCI EAFE NR USD, Small Cap Stocks – Russell 2000, Commodities – Morgan Stanley Commodity-Related, US Bonds – BarCap US Aggregate, Global Bonds – BarCap Global Aggregate, High Yield Bonds – BarCap Corporate High Yield.

Benefits of Process - 1st Quarter 2012

Investors are prone to periods of underperformance regardless of strategy. The response to underperformance is an important consideration for the investor's future success. Nobel Prize winning behavioral psychologist points to process:

"Organizations are better than individuals when it comes to avoiding errors, because they naturally think more slowly and have the power to impose orderly procedures." ~ Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, 2011.

At Center for Financial Planning, we have an investment committee dedicated to upholding the very processes that hedge us as investors from common pitfalls while maintaining customized financial planning solutions for each client's unique situation. There are checks and balances so that changes for investments don't occur willy-nilly. Parameters anticipating discussion of process change are documented within our written procedure. Please click here to read the full post at Money Centered.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.

Where in the World is Marilyn Gunther?

When you retire from Michigan, it seems like you have one of two choices. Florida or Arizona. So how did we Gunthers end up with a forwarding address of Wilmington, North Carolina?  And where the heck is Wilmington, North Carolina, for that matter?

Well, it’s in the southeastern corner of the state, a little more than an hour north of popular vacation destination Myrtle Beach.  Located on the Cape Fear River, the town is surrounded on the east with inter-coastal islands and beaches. With a population of 110,000, this port town is also a college town with a beautiful campus of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington (13,000 students) and a thriving Cape Fear Community College.

Home to a major Coast Guard Cutter, Wilmington also boasts the largest film studio outside of LA. It has a diversified economy with major facilities of Corning, Inc., General Electric and several drug research and development firms and during the last decade this area took part in the housing boom. Our climate is subtropical, sunny, and mild (think 50’s in January and 80-90 degrees in August). Trust me, Ron and I don’t have to twist any arms to get our family to come visit.

No, I didn’t take up a job with the Chamber of Commerce. And no, I’m not making a case for you to retire here too, however …

There’s a rich history too! Wilmington was the last port to close before Lee surrendered, ending the Civil War.  The town was left alone, relatively off the beaten path, and did not begin to flourish until the 1980’s when I-40 was built to bring Raleigh folks to the beaches.

For those of us who have been coming here for years, Wilmington was a well-kept secret.  The secret is out.  The beaches are pristine (a favorite of surfers), the restaurants great, the riverfront walkway fun, and the historic homes and gardens lovely.   The blend of college students, well-off young retirees, senior citizens and dock workers provide an interesting and often time colorful mix. We are not spit and polished — upon close inspection, you’ll find dirt under Wilmington’s fingernails.