Center Investing

Investment Basics: Bonds 101

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth Nicholas Boguth

Bonds are a hot topic in the investment community today while we patiently await a rise in interest rates from the Fed. We know that interest rates affect the bond market, but how? In order to truly gain a better understanding of how the bond market works, we’re going back to the basics to address some important fundamental questions that all investors should understand.

First off, what is a bond?

A bond is a debt instrument that a company or government uses to borrow money. A corporation may need cash in order to build new factories; a government may need cash to build a bridge, etc. In order to borrow money, they sell you (the investor) a bond that basically says, “We owe you.” By selling these bonds, they are able raise a large amount of cash, and pay it back over time.

It is important to note that the major difference between bonds and stocks is that bonds are debt, and stocks are equity. If you own a bond, you own a portion of the issuer’s debt. If you own a stock, you own a portion of the company. The upside of owning a bond is that you receive back principal plus interest; you have higher priority for getting paid if the issuer goes bankrupt, and you don’t lose money because the stock price declines. The downside is that you don’t share the issuer’s future profits or participate in rising stock prices. These factors are why bonds are typically considered “less volatile” investments.

What is a coupon?

Bonds pay interest to you, the investor. A coupon is simply the amount of money that you receive at each interest payment (typically every six months). Par value, or the issuer’s price of a bond, is typically $1000. If a bond has a 5% coupon, then you receive 5% of $1000 every year; or $25 every 6 months.

What is yield?

A bond’s yield is a measure of its return. Current yield is calculated by taking the coupon payment and dividing by the current price of the bond. When a bond is trading at par, rather than at a discount or premium, the yield is equal to the coupon payment: $50 coupon payment/$1000 bond price = 5% yield. If the price of that same bond rose to $2000, then the current yield would be $50/$2000 = 2.5%. The yield is lower because you had to pay more money for the bond. The opposite would be true if you bought the bond at a discount. The Yield to maturity is another measure of return. It reflects the return you would get if you held the bond all the way to maturity. For you investors, it is important to understand what coupons and yields are in order to understand their relationship to pricing and interest rate changes.

Why do bond prices go down when interest rates go up?

When interest rates rise, new bonds that are being issued will have higher coupon payments than the old bonds that were issued in the lower interest rate environment. Why would anyone ever buy one of those old bonds that have smaller coupons? If they were the same price, they wouldn’t! This is why bond prices fall when interest rates rise. In order for the yield to be equal between the bond with the higher coupon and the bond with the smaller coupon, the bond with the smaller coupon would have to be cheaper.

Nicholas Boguth is a Client Service Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.


This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. The hypothetical examples are for illustration purpose only and do not represent an actual investment.

There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. To learn more about these risks and the suitability of these bonds for you, please contact our office.

Year-End Financial Checklist: 7 Tips to End the Year on a High Note

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson Jaclyn Jackson

And just like that, we are already in the fourth quarter; the year has gone by quickly! Before it completely slips away, try these top tips to strengthen your finances and get things in order for the year ahead: 

  1. Harvest your losses – Tax-loss harvesting generates losses that can be used to reduce current taxes while maintaining your asset allocation. Take advantage of this method by selling the investments that are trading at a significant loss and replacing it with a similar investment. 
  2. Max out contributions – While you have until you file your tax return, it may be easier to take some of your end-of-year bonus to max out your annual retirement contribution.  Traditional and Roth IRAs allow you to contribute $5,500 each year (with an additional $1,000 for people over age 50).  You can contribute up to $18,000 for 401(k)s, 403(b)s, and 457 plans.
  3. Take RMDs – Don’t forget to take the required minimum distribution (RMD) from your IRA.  The penalty for not taking your RMD on time is a 50% tax on what should have been distributed.  RMDs should be taken annually starting the year following the year you reach 70 ½ years of age.
  4. Rebalance your portfolio – It is important to rebalance your portfolio periodically to make sure you are not overweight an asset class that has outperformed over the course of the year.  This helps maintain the investment objective best suited for you.
  5. Use up FSA money - If you haven’t depleted the money in your flexible spending account (FSA) for healthcare expenses, now is the time to squeeze in those annual check-ups.  Some plan sponsors allow employees to roll over up to $500 of unused amounts, but that is not always the case (check with your employer to see if that option is available to you).
  6. Donate to a charity – Instead of cash, consider donating highly appreciated securities to avoid paying capital gains tax.  Typically, there is no tax to you once the security is transferred and there is no tax to the charity once they sell the security.  If you’re not sure where you want to donate, a Donor Advised Fund is a great option.  By gifting to a Donor Advised Fund, you could get a tax deduction this year and distribute the funds to a charity later. 
  7. Review your credit score – With all of the money transactions done during the holiday season, it makes sense to review your credit score at the end of the year.  You can go to annualcreditreport.com to request a free credit report from the three nationwide credit reporting agencies: Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion.  Requesting one of the reports every four months will help you keep a pulse on your credit status throughout the year.

Bonus:  If there have been changes to your family (new baby, marriage, divorce, or death), consider these bonus tips:

  • Adjust your tax withholds
  • Review insurance coverage
  • Update financial goals, emergency funds, and budget
  • Review beneficiaries on estate planning documents, retirement accounts, and insurance policies.
  • Start a 529 plan

Jaclyn Jackson is a Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.


This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. RMD's are generally subject to federal income tax and may be subject to state taxes. Consult your tax advisor to assess your situation. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Investor Education Ph.D. series: What is Roll Yield?

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® Angela Palacios

Roll yield is a term that you may have heard lately in the financial news.  No, I am not talking about Cubans and cigars.  I am referring to a potentially profitable bond trading strategy that can be employed to enhance returns of a bond portfolio during a rising interest rate environment.

The Traditional Buy and Hold Bond Strategy

With interest rate increases supposedly just around the corner, investors fear negative or very low returns out of their bond positions.  Furthermore, there are many proponents of buying individual bonds only during a rising interest rate environment.  This strategy offers certainty of getting your principal back upon maturity if the creditor doesn’t default. However, when the bond yield curve is sloping upward there is another strategy that could be employed successfully and potentially create better long term returns than the buy and hold strategy.

How the Roll Yield Bond Strategy is Different

Roll yield is often thought of hand-in-hand with the futures market. In the futures market when you are buying a contract on the price of coffee for example, you are always paying either more or less then coffee is actually trading at in that moment (this is referred to as the spot price).  If you are paying less for the contract than the current spot price, you can then achieve a positive roll yield or price increase as that contract gets closer and closer to maturing at the spot price (assuming the spot price doesn’t change) as shown by the green line in the chart below.

In the bond market this concept is similar but works a bit differently.  When you buy a bond, for example a 5 year treasury bond, you pay $1,000 for this bond and in return get a set rate of interest, I will use1.75% for example.  If the yield curve is upward sloping that means that bonds maturing in less than 5 years should pay some interest rate less than 1.75% as you aren’t tying your money up for as long.  For example, a 4-year bond could yield 1.5%.  See the chart below for an example of an upward sloping yield curve.

As you hold your 5-year treasury it grows closer to maturity every day and eventually your 5 year bond turns into a 4 year bond, 3 year bond and so on until it matures.  If rates don’t change over the first year, you now possess a 4 year bond that yields 1.75% when all other 4-year treasury bonds that are issued are only paying 1.5%.  The interest rate premium means people want your bond more and are willing to pay more money for it.  This results in price appreciation or a capital gain on the bond.  At that time, you could sell the bond and collect the price appreciation in addition to the 1.75% in interest that you collected over the past year. 

The chart below shows a hypothetical example of owning 100 of these bonds.  The blue area is the 1.75% interest that you receive each year.  You can see that it stays level each year until maturity.  However, in the first year you see that there is a red area, or addition to your return, from capital gains of the price going up due to the nature of the process explained above.  You could sell your 100 bonds that in 4 years will mature again at $100,000 or sell it for $101,000 and over the first year collect a total of $1,750 in interest plus $1,000 in capital gains making your return on the $100,000 investment.

Then you could re-invest in a new 5 year bond still paying 1.75% interest again.  The reason you may want to make this transaction is when you get closer to the bond maturing you will have to lose that increase in price because you will only receive your $1,000 back from the US Treasury that you paid originally for the bond and therefore, the bond price will come back down as investors know this will happen and will be unwilling to pay more for the bond.  This is shown in the chart above as the annual loss (red area) in years 4 and 5 on the bond.

Large Bond Managers vs. the Individual Investor

A buy-and-hold investor would give up this potential increase in returns in the early years of holding the bond by not selling and locking in the price appreciation.  However, this strategy can be difficult to pay off for an individual investor because you are dealing in smaller lots of individual bonds and thus you pay commissions and are subject to bid/ask spreads that could make it too costly to trade and take advantage of roll yield.  Large bond managers can often successfully pull this off because they have pricing power due to the sizes of the bond lots they trade.

If rates rise too quickly or only certain parts of the yield curve increase, this type of strategy may not pay off over a buy-and-hold investor.  An investor needs to weigh whether or not they would prefer the certainty of the individual bond or if they would prefer to outsource to a manager to implement potential strategies such as roll yield to enhance returns over time.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.


Sources: http://www.futurestradingpedia.com/futures_roll_yield.htm https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-bond-funds-rolling-down-the-yield-curve-help-defend-against-rising-interest-rates/

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation.The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. To learn more about these risks and the suitability of these bonds for you, please contact our office.

Third Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® Angela Palacios

After a volatile end to summer and beginning of fall, we’ve been busy reading, listening and digesting other perspectives on the markets … both of the past and looking ahead.

Eric Cinnamond on Taking the Unpopular Road

On September 22nd we had the pleasure to speak with Eric Cinnamond, Portfolio Manager at Aston/River Road.  Mr. Cinnamond offers his perspective on markets while managing a small cap value stock portfolio.  Today, as has often been the case at market inflection points in the past, his portfolio looks quite different than many others.  He currently maintains 85% of his assets in cash and the other 15% are comprised of mining and commodity companies, along with select energy and financial positions.  He stated that this has been his most uncomfortable portfolio in his career of managing money.  His portfolio has suffered major withdrawals in the past couple of years with his underperformance compared to peers.  According to Eric though,

“I’d rather lose half of my clients than half their capital.”

He stated that right now, investors are crowded into safety and high quality positions like healthcare.  As a result these areas are very expensive.  The valuations on the stocks he follows are at the highest of his career.  His possible buy list currently has a Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) of 45 and this has continued to climb this year, not because of price expansion, but due to Earnings contraction.  As a result, he is patiently waiting for the next opportunity to put risk back in his portfolio.  With his absolute return objective, he stresses the importance of avoiding mistakes and only taking risk when investors are compensated for it.  We applaud managers like this who stick to their investment disciplines that have added value over benchmarks over many years and market cycles, even if they are unpopular for a short period of time!

First Eagle pays $40 Million in SEC case Over Distribution Fees

This is a shocking headline coming out of a company that has had little regulatory headline issues in the past.  In 2013 the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started an industry-wide sweep to evaluate the fees paid by Asset managers to its distributors.  After speaking directly to a representative of First Eagle we learned of 40 agreements First Eagle has with distributors the SEC found one to be in violation because the fee was paid by the mutual fund shareholders pool of money rather than from First Eagle’s general fund.  First Eagle, upon doing their own internal review, then found one other agreement that was also in violation and immediately reported this to the SEC.  As a result they are paying about a $12.5 million penalty to the SEC and then paying $25 million back to fund shareholders along with interest.  These fees are separate from a 12b-1 fee in that they are meant to pay to outsource record keeping and accounting services on the shares owned by investors from First Eagle to the distributing company.  This likely will not be the last we hear of this issue as many other companies are also under scrutiny.  First Eagle was the first to settle.

Dan Fuss Portfolio Manager for Loomis Sayles Fixed Income Team

Dan Fuss recently shared his views on the hot topic of liquidity in the bond markets.  Liquidity is the ability to easily purchase or sell a security at a reasonable price in a reasonable amount of time.  Often though, when the most liquidity is needed during market events, it is the scarcest.  This provides opportunities for bond managers to buy fundamentally strong credits at significant discounts.  Structural and regulatory changes have played a big role in this reducing liquidity as dealer inventories are very low (dark blue line below), while the number of bonds outstanding (light blue line) is steadily increasing in this low interest rate environment.  

In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, much regulation was passed that made principal trading (where the bank itself took one side of a bond trade either to buy or sell) much more risky and less profitable.  This, in essence, dried up that part of the market liquidity.  Now banks only act as agents, matching up buyers and sellers rather than being a buyer or a seller.  Mr. Fuss noted that this affects liquidity for large blocks of bonds but that for smaller lots of bonds he finds liquidity is still quite healthy.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-sec-firsteagle-idUSKCN0RL1S320150921

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. To learn more about these risks and the suitability of these bonds for you, please contact our office. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Eric Cinnamond, Aston Asset Management, Dan Fuss and Loomis Sayles.

Stock Market Update

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® Angela Palacios

In the past week the S&P 500 tumbled amid increased volatility, wiping out all gains year to date and sending the index into negative territory.  Activity like this can be unsettling so please find some of our thoughts and observations following. 

Why is this happening?

  • Uncertainty around whether or not the FED will raise rates next month is concerning in general.  Markets don’t like this uncertainty as we move closer to September.

  • Weak growth in China and Emerging markets are spilling over into commodities and the currency markets causing concern in general that there will be contagion to local markets.

What have we done to prepare?

  • We expect volatility like this to happen from time to time.  The past several years have been an anomaly with little to no volatility.  Reacting is rarely a profitable move for an investor but acting ahead of time can be.  We have structured a portion of portfolios with active managers that have been building cash positions for just these moments.  When they see attractive opportunities they can put that cash to work.

  • Bonds were never abandoned; in fact, we have increased our exposure here over the past year.  Even when faced with rising interest rates, we believe bonds are an important piece of diversification as they have held up very well in this short downturn giving positive performance.

  • We utilize a bucket strategy when managing clients’ accounts to provide cash flow that is needed even when markets are at their most volatile.  The first bucket of defense is the cash that we hold to fund any current cash flow needs.  The next bucket is short term and high quality bonds which as mentioned above usually hold up well in a market rout.  Your personal situation dictates how much is appropriate to hold within these buckets.

What else can you do?

  • Make sure your long-term allocation is still appropriate

  • Double check thatyour time frame is correct for the investments in your portfolio

  • Review and consider your risk tolerance for those investments

A correction doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is looming.  None of the indicators we are following point to a recession on the horizon so we feel this is just a temporary pullback.  This is the time when you lean on your financial planner to help you make the right decisions for your goals and needs and not act out of panic or fear.  Please feel free to reach out to us with any concerns or questions you may have, we are here for you!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.


This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Second Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® Angela Palacios

We’ve been busy meeting with investment managers this past quarter.  It’s always great to dig into the latest research and get a fresh perspective and some new ideas.  Angela Palacios shares some of the most notable take-aways from our second quarter meetings:

Scott Davis, Portfolio Manager Columbia Dividend Income

It is always a pleasure to receive a visit from Scott.  We have had the privilege to meet with him several times over the past years and each time we seem to glean interesting information.  He was pleased and flattered to be recently named by Morningstar as one of their “Ultimate Stock pickers.”  We discussed several top of mind topics, starting with the potential upcoming interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.  Scott told us he wished they would just get it over with and do the first one soon.  He stated that markets move so quickly these days you want to be positioned for this happening well in advance.

Scott is also growing increasingly concerned over companies that are issuing debt at low rates today to buy back stock.  The concern isn’t necessarily for now, but in the future when they become dependent on this debt and need to refinance that debt at much higher rates.  Some companies could be in a lot of trouble at that point.

Heidi Richardson, Head of Investment Strategy for US iShares

Heidi was also talking about a rate hike, among other things.  She gave her list of things to know and do.

5 things to know:

  1. Federal reserve should hike rates soon but she expects rates to remain low

  2. Central Bank divergences (while US and England are raising interest rates, Japan, Canada and Europe are lowering rates)

  3. She expects stocks to be a bumpy ride (low volatility of the past 5 years is over)

  4. US economy is only inching upward slowly (they expect GDP growth of 2.5% this year)

  5. Inflation is still very low and Europe will see deflation

5 things to do:

  1. Prefer stocks over bonds (although bonds are still an important part of diversification)

  2. Look overseas for investment opportunities

  3. Watch your step in bonds (be choosy as many look fully to overvalued and liquidity may be sketchy)

  4. Resist the urge to exit (fear of a bubble leads many to sit on the sidelines and wait to invest, but over time they expect the market to move higher)

  5. Seek growth in a low growth world (low rates on cash continue to hurt those holding it)

Jeff Saut, Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Equity Research for Raymond James

Jeff presented at the Raymond James conference in April and gave us his stages of a secular bull market (which he believes we are in now): 

  1. Aftershock and rebuilding: this is the realization that you survived a bear market. Rebuilding is a sea change where stocks no longer react to negative news.

  2. Guarded optimism: bear markets redistribute stocks to the rightful owners (this is the stage he thinks we are in).

  3. Enthusiasm: fun stage of the bull market where generally everything you touch makes a profit.

  4. Exuberance: feelings grow as nothing can go wrong, he feels we have a long way to go before we get to this stage.

  5. Unreality: advanced stage of exuberance, frantic and chaotic, volumes pick up and there is a lot of turnover.

  6. Cold Water and disillusionment: bursting of the bubble.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.


Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Scott Davis, Heidi Richardson or the companies they represent. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Scott Davis, Heidi Richardson or the companies they represent.  This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation.  Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.  Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Past performance is  not a guarantee of future results.

First Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® Angela Palacios

We hit the ground running this year with a flurry of meetings with top notch investment managers.  In January Angela Palacios attended the ETF.com conference where international investing was a hot topic.  Angela shares some interesting insights along with notable quotes from some of our top money managers.

Ryan Barksdale of Vanguard: Due Diligence process

Melissa and Angela sat down with Ryan to discuss how Vanguard structures their investment committee in making key decisions as well as how they evaluate a company they are looking to bring on as a partner in making investment decisions.  Ryan discussed with us their manager oversight and selection process.  The keys in their investment selection process include low cost, top talent and patience.

Giorgio Caputo a portfolio manager and analyst at First Eagle

On the global front, First Eagle’s Giorgio Caputo noted that international valuations seem to be becoming more attractive relative to the US.   And with global confidence at multi-year lows and depressed earnings, if anything goes right things would start to look attractive. US quality positions have been reaching their cash targets and they’ve been replaced with overseas holding. Caputo noted that their investors pay a tax by holding cash, high quality bonds, and golds in order to get lower risk as measured by volatility in the portfolios.

It was noteworthy that Caputo was meeting with us on January 23rd, which was the day that Mario Draghi announced new quantitative easing initiatives in Europe. Caputo mentioned that the trend has been to buy on rumor and sell on fact. This seemed to be repeated with the announcements.

Discussion turned to the global fears on deflation. Caputo noted the perplexing conundrum that worldwide labor pools are shrinking as populations age, but wage growth isn’t increasing with a tighter labor pool. He blamed this on a deflation pulse which is coming from the automation of equipment. Whereas a new factory 30 years ago might have employed 1,000 workers, today a similar factory might only employ 10 or 20 people with machines taking care of the rest.

Notable Quotes from some of our top managers shareholder letters

From Steven Romick President of FPA notes it has been rough weather for some time for deep-value investors.  However, rather than letting the market’s and its price fluctuations drive them, they remain patient, picking companies that are easy to earn a return on for the price they are paying.  They have to often sit in cash and wait for these opportunities as they are now, at least partially.

Our money is invested alongside yours so we’re willing to look stupid for a time rather than act stupidly”

Rob Arnott Chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates notes that diversification in a bull market is always painful. 

History and common sense suggest some serious caution going forward, given a potentially toxic brew of historically high valuation levels, peak earnings, an economic expansion that’s about to enter its seventh year, the markets’ evident addiction to monetary stimulus as the primary fuel for further rallies, and the stark divergence between U.S. stocks and pretty much everything else.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well asinvestment updates at The Center.


This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Ryan Barksdale, Giogio Caputo, Steven Romick, Rob Arnott, or the companies they represent.

Investment Commentary - January 2015

2014 was highlighted by the continued dominance of America’s large cap stock bull market and a bond surprise with US treasuries providing returns to investors. We like to think of markets in cycles and you may be feeling more and more used to stock returns as it’s been more than five years since we had negative returns in US large company stocks (generally). Moreover, you may wonder why you would own anything but US stocks and bonds given a divergence of returns between US large companies and almost everything else.

The Curse of Diversification?

If you have a diversified portfolio of different types of stocks and bonds as we recommend through asset allocation, it may to be frustrating to see the largest US benchmarks with double-digit returns while other different types of stocks have been more mediocre. Using 2014 as an example, small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 were up 4.89% vs. 13.69% for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, foreign stocks as measured by the MSCI All-Cap World Ex-US were down for the year return -3.87%.

As you can see from the chart below, the drop-off was precipitous. While we have made some adjustments to our recommended mix of stocks, we continue to recommend a commitment to diversification.

It is difficult to overstate the power that diversification has in terms of long-term investment returns. By long-term, we don’t mean one year or three years but over decades which is ultimately the time horizon for most of our clients at least for some of your money. Indeed, the SEC refers to “The Magic of Diversification” on their website educating investors. They go on to note, “The practice of spreading money among different investments to reduce risk is known as diversification. By picking the right group of investments, you may be able to limit your losses and reduce the fluctuations of investment returns without sacrificing too much potential gain.” Source.

Bond Redux

While we have been amongst the majority of investors who have been concerned about rising interest rates over the next five to ten years, bonds reiterated their unwillingness to be predictable in 2014 by returning close to their lows in terms of yields. The ten-year treasury yields 1.93% today (January 12). That number seems impossibly low, likely manipulated by a very accommodating federal reserve. It’s not difficult, though, to see why it may stay that low for some time when you notice that the German ten-year bond yields 0.47% and a Spanish bond – much less creditworthy than Uncle Sam – pays just 1.64%.

Predicting short-term bond returns is a fool’s errand. That said, the very low bond yield – about the same as inflation – coupled by forewarning from the federal reserve that rates may go higher this year means our outlook is unchanged. From year-to-year we can’t predict the returns of bonds, but over the next several years, yields will likely go higher. This march higher would be likely to accelerate if there were signs of inflation which seems to be the farthest thing from reality with CPI less than 2% right now. As with all things, it’s healthy to not assume anything.

We have more to share in our investment commentary website http://centerinvesting.com.

You will not find us making predictions for investment returns in 2015. We can predict that your commitment to financial planning coupled with a long-term outlook when working with us to make investment decisions will have a positive impact on your ability to meet your financial and life goals. We appreciate your partnership and trust in allowing us to work together to meet your needs.

As always, please don’t hesitate to contact us for any questions or conversations.

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®
Director of Wealth Management

Melissa Joy, CFP®is Partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. In 2013, Melissa was honored by Financial Advisor magazine in the Research All Star List for the third consecutive year. In addition to her contributions to Money Centered blogs, she writes investment updates at The Center and is regularly quoted in national media publications including The Chicago Tribune, Investment News, and Morningstar Advisor.

Financial Advisor magazine's inaugural Research All Star List is based on job function of the person evaluated, fund selections and evaluation process used, study of rejected fund examples, and evaluation of challenges faced in the job and actions taken to overcome those challenges. Evaluations are independently conducted by Financial Advisor Magazine.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy & Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. C15-001750

Important Information for Tax Season 2014

invcom_20150116bbb.jpg

As you prepare for the 2014 tax season, here is some information that you may find beneficial.

Our team is available to assist you with your tax reporting needs. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions. We are also happy to coordinate with your CPA or tax preparer on your behalf if you make this request.

2014 Raymond James Form 1099 mailing schedule

  • 2/17- Mailing of original Form 1099s

  • 3/2 - Begin mailing delayed and amended Form 1099s

  • 3/16 - Final mailing of any remaining delayed original Form 1099s

Please note the exceptions immediately below:

Delayed Form 1099s

In an effort to capture delayed data on original Form 1099s, the IRS allows us to extend the mailing date until March 16, 2014 for clients who hold particular investments or who have had specific taxable events occur. Examples of delayed information include:

  • Income reallocation related to mutual funds, real estate investment, unit investment, grantor and royalty trusts; as well as holding company depositary receipts

  • Processing of Original Issue Discount and Mortgage Backed bonds

  • Cost basis adjustments

Amended Form 1099s

Even after delaying your Form 1099, please be aware that adjustments to your Form 1099 are still possible. Raymond James is required by the IRS to produce an amended Form 1099 if notice of such an adjustment is received after the original Form 1099 has been produced. There is no cutoff or deadline for amended Form 1099 statements. The following are some examples of reasons for amended Form 1099s:

  • Income reallocation

  • Adjustments to cost basis (due to the Economic Stabilization Act of 2008)

  • Changes made by mutual fund companies related to foreign withholding

  • Tax-exempt payments subject to alternative minimum tax

  • Any portion of distributions derived from U.S. Treasury obligations

What can you do?

You should consider talking to your tax advisor about whether it makes sense to file an extension with the IRS to give you additional time to file your tax return, particularly if you held any of the aforementioned securities during 2014.

If you receive an amended Form 1099 after you have already filed your tax return, you should consult with your tax advisor about the requirements to re-file based on your individual tax circumstances.

Additional information can be found at http://www.raymondjames.com/taxreporting.htm.

We hope you find this additional information helpful. Please call us if you have any questions or concerns during tax season.

Please note, changes in tax laws or regulations may occur at any time and could substantially impact your situation. Raymond James financial advisors do not render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Surprise, Surprise – Oil & Global Geopolitical Showdowns

invcom_20150116b.jpg

We have mentioned in past commentaries the surprise turn in US energy production over the last several years. It turns out energy markets aren’t done with surprises as a combination of pressure from Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices, lower demand at home and abroad, and a variety of other factors has resulted in a precipitous decline in oil prices. Six months ago, crude oil traded near $100. Today (as of January 12th) oil is trading around $46 (source: Bloomberg.com).

This surprise has had a real impact on markets with both winners and losers. You can probably feel the “win” at the pump as your gas bills have likely been cut almost in half. This is a real bonus in US consumer pockets and in the past it has meant good things to our consumer-driven economy.

It may not be a surprise that oil was about to throw us a loop when you consider that commercials were starting to infiltrate CNBC and Bloomberg suggesting that you can buy your own oil well. This reminds me of direct to consumer gold infomercials a few years back. Oil-rich areas of the country and energy-specific stocks will be calculating new scenarios for the future with significant changes to their assumptions. It will take a while to muddle through the winners and losers with the new energy prices, but stock markets have been wary of the decline which has been welcomed by volatility and down days.

Other surprises have been geopolitical in nature. Ukraine-Russia conflict, terrorism in Europe, two Malaysian air tragedies, these just touch the surface of headlines that have touched our psyche and somewhat rattled markets. Studies of market returns after geopolitical events such as wars and military actions have shown that stocks as measured by the S&P can initially dip but typically recover in a short but unpredictable period of time (Sources: Talha Khan, Capital Markets Group; Mark Haefele, UBS, S&P Capital IQ).

Disciplined investors can take advantage of disruptive forces in markets. Maintaining investments and rebalancing offer opportunities to stay the course and buy low while selling high. If you’d like to discuss specific scenarios and events, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your planner or our investment team.

Melissa Joy, CFP®is Partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. In 2013, Melissa was honored by Financial Advisor magazine in the Research All Star List for the third consecutive year. In addition to her contributions to Money Centered blogs, she writes investment updates at The Center and is regularly quoted in national media publications including The Chicago Tribune, Investment News, and Morningstar Advisor.

Financial Advisor magazine's inaugural Research All Star List is based on job function of the person evaluated, fund selections and evaluation process used, study of rejected fund examples, and evaluation of challenges faced in the job and actions taken to overcome those challenges. Evaluations are independently conducted by Financial Advisor Magazine.

Required Disclaimers: Information provided is general in nature, and is not a complete statement of all information necessary for making an investment decision, and is not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Information contained in this report was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. Investments in the energy sector are not suitable for all investors. Further information regarding these investments is available from your financial advisor. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed web sites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any web site or the collection or use of information regarding any web site's users and/or members. C15-001751