5 Social Security Rules to Know for Maximizing Your Benefits

Contributed by: Robert Ingram, CFP®

Social Security is still a key source of income for most retirees.  At the same time with the program’s many nuanced rules and options, just understanding your available benefits can be confusing enough, let alone figuring out how to make the most of those benefits throughout retirement.  Additionally, there are some strategies not as widely publicized and they can easily fly under the radar.

Here are five Social Security rules to keep in mind as you plan your Social Security filing strategy. 

1. Delaying Social Security Can Increase Your Benefit Amount

Under the Social Security retirement program, you can collect your full retirement benefit at the designated Full Retirement Age (FRA), determined by your birth year.  Individuals born from 1943 to 1954 reached FRA at age 66.  In each year from 1955 to 1959 the FRA increases by 2 months (e.g. 1955 = age 66 and 2 months, 1956 = age 66 and 4 months, and so on). Those born in 1960 or later reach their FRA at age 67.

Think of your full retirement age benefit as your baseline benefit.  You can begin collecting benefits as early as age 62.  However, your benefit amount would be reduced by a small percentage for each month that you collected early.  This can add up to a sizable reduction. For example, if your full retirement age is 67 and you begin collecting as early as possible at 62, you could see your benefit reduced by 30%.

Now, the opposite is also true if you begin collecting your benefits after your full retirement age.  For each month that you delay taking your benefits beyond your full retirement age until age 70, your benefit amount increases by 2/3 of 1%.  (Are you thinking that doesn’t sound like much?)  These delayed retirement credits would yield an 8% increase over 12 months.  For clients that are concerned about longevity in retirement (a.ka. living a long time needing retirement income), this can be an effective way to help protect themselves.

2. Delaying Social Security Can Impact Benefits To A Surviving Spouse

For married couples that are receiving their Social Security retirement benefits, when one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse will receive only one benefit going forward.  It is the larger of his or her benefit or the deceased spouse’s benefit. 

By delaying Social Security to increase your benefit amount while you are living, you are also locking in a higher benefit amount that could be available to your surviving spouse.   Conversely, taking benefits early at a reduced amount may leave a smaller benefit available to your surviving spouse.  These different possible scenarios present both unique challenges and planning opportunities for maximizing the value of your benefits over both spouses’ lifetimes.

3. Withdrawal of Social Security Application (The “Do-Over”)

Suppose you have started collecting your benefits and then you changed your mind.  Perhaps you had collected early at a reduced benefit.  Can you go back and reverse the decision to claim benefits?  Well, if you are within the first 12 months of claiming, you can.

You can withdraw your application for benefits and then reapply later.  This resets things as if you had never started benefit.  Keep in mind there are also some important requirements.

• You must repay all of the benefits you and your family received from your original retirement application, including:

  • Benefit amounts your spouse collected based on your earnings record or benefits dependent children received

  • Any amounts withheld for Medicare premiums

  • Voluntary tax withholding

• Anyone who receives benefits based on your application must provide written consent

• You can only withdraw your application once in your lifetime.

4. Voluntary Suspension

Ok, you may be wondering if it has been longer than 12 months since you claimed your benefits and you change your mind, are you completely stuck?  Well, not exactly.  There is another way to increase your benefit amount.

Once you reach full retirement age, you can request a suspension of your benefit payments (regardless of when you started them).  By doing so, the benefit you were receiving earns those delayed retirement credits of 2/3 of 1% for each month that your benefits are suspended.  This results in a higher amount when you resume your benefits, no later than age 70.

This strategy of suspending benefits can be an effective tax planning tool for years in which you anticipate other outside income, like a pension that recently started or a lump sum from the sale of a business.

5. Benefits Based On An Ex-Spouse’s Earnings

If you are divorced, you may be able to collect benefits based on your ex-spouse’s Social Security record.  Similar to the benefits for married couples, you can receive up to one-half of your ex-spouse’s full retirement amount by waiting until your full retirement age to apply.  Collecting earlier than your full retirement age still results in a reduced benefit.

You can collect based on your ex-spouse’s record if you meet the following criteria:

• You were married at least 10 years and you have been divorced for at least 2 years

• You are unmarried

• You are age 62 or older

• The benefit you are entitled to on your Social Security earnings record is less than the benefit you would receive based on your ex-spouse’s record

If the amount you could receive based on your ex-spouse’s record is larger than the amount from your record, you have the opportunity to receive the higher benefit.

Decisions around when and how to collect Social Security benefits can be complicated and depend so heavily on your unique circumstances.  Your health, your retirement spending needs, your income sources, and financial assets are just a few that come to mind.  If you have questions about how Social Security fits within your overall retirement income plan, or if we can be a resource for you, please reach out to us!

Robert Ingram, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® With more than 15 years of industry experience, he is a trusted source for local media outlets and frequent contributor to The Center’s “Money Centered” blog.

---

This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Prior to making a decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

How Risky Was It To Invest In Gamestop?

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

A quick Google search tells us that the odds of winning the Powerball Jackpot is roughly .000000003%. The odds of getting struck by lightning is roughly .0002%. What are the odds of getting rich by investing in a stock that grows by 100x in a year like Gamestop? Also slim.

It is hard not to envy those individuals posting screenshots of their LIFE-CHANGING gains like we saw last month with some of the lucky winners of the GME hysteria. The only problem is that it is far more likely that style of investing ends with life-changing LOSSES.

How often does a stock return 100x?

Christopher Mayer explored that question in his book, “100 Baggers”. His research found that 110 stocks returned 100x between 1976-2014.

Pair that with research from Credit Suisse and you soon realize that if your goal is to get rich quick, the odds are stacked against you. The number of listed securities has fluctuated from 3,000+ to 7,000+ over the past 50 years, and there have been OVER 15,000 new stocks listed in that time frame alone.

Some “back of the napkin” calculations would suggest that there is a ~0.5% chance you pick the stock that returns 100x, and that is assuming you hold through all the turbulence and sell at the correct time as well.

Back to the major problem – while 110 stocks returned 100x, there were THOUSANDS of stocks that failed. Some go bankrupt or get delisted because they never trade above $1/share, or lose 90% of their value and plateau. There’s a good chance a lot of those companies shared the financial position of Gamestop as well (Gamestop lost almost $500M in 2020).

So when we see a Reddit user celebrating their life-changing journey from $50k to $5M, know that there are DOZENS of individuals who tried the same thing – but are sulking in a less fortunate journey from $50k to $0.

At The Center, we believe in a more sustainable, long-term approach to gaining (and preserving) wealth. If you have questions about how that applies to you and your financial plan, please don’t hesitate to call or email anyone on our team.

Nicholas Boguth is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

---

Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

A Better Way To Pass Down Wealth To The Next Generation

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CDFA®

You may have heard the saying, “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.”  In a family, it refers to the phenomenon of a generation building wealth, passing it down to the second generation, but going broke by the third. Whether you are passing down investment assets or a family business, many parents have the hope that their money will enrich the lives of their children, grandchildren, and future generations for years to come. However, successful transitions do not just happen when assets are distributed.  Like most challenges in life, transitions require planning, communication, and coordination.

When planning for generational wealth transfers, opening the lines of communication is often the first and most difficult hurdle to overcome. Parents may be reluctant to share information on wealth and money for many different reasons. Our society as a whole often treats money as a taboo subject that is rarely discussed in personal terms. Other concerns could be stifling an heir’s initiative or the threat of a child’s future divorce. Simply avoiding these conversations, however, can lead to unintended confusion, irresponsibility, or resentment.

Family meetings devoted to discussing wealth can help heirs better understand their parents’ plan and any possible role they may play in the future. Family meetings also give participants the opportunity to express their views, accept responsibility, or acknowledge where they may need additional help in the future. There are many ways these meetings can be conducted, but they all center on the same objectives of trust, communication, and understanding.

A meeting with the family’s advisors, financial planner, attorney, and CPA should take place at some point as well. This will help the family to gain both comfort with the advisors and a greater understanding of the level of assets in question. With the passing of the SECURE Act eliminating the stretch IRA in many situations, retirement assets that are transitioning to the next generation may require more detailed tax strategies. The Estate tax limit has also fluctuated drastically throughout the last few decades, and that will most likely be the case going forward.  It’s important that those who will ultimately gain control of assets understand why plans were put into place and how they will function going forward. While no amount of planning can ultimately guarantee success, when the lines of communication are open between owners, heirs, and advisors, a family is able to develop the best strategy for all involved.

Successful family meetings are intended to engage family members, not be a set of rules handed from one generation to the next. Healthy communication builds trust, and trust builds understanding. We often encourage clients to involve children in their Annual Review meetings when they're comfortable. If full disclosure of all information seems too invasive initially, have a conversation with your planner prior to the meeting. We are happy to tailor the meeting as necessary and can review only the portions of your plan that you are comfortable sharing!

Senior Financial Planner Joins Center Team: Meet Michael!

Welcome to the team!

The Center proudly welcomes Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA to our team. With nearly 13 years of experience in the profession, Michael is thrilled to join a team where he can collaborate with other professionals to further enhance his career as a financial planner. 

Background

His extensive background includes both personal and corporate finance. After earning a BA in Economics and Management from Albion College, he launched his career in finance with Federal Mogul in Southfield, Michigan. He then went on to earn an MBA from Wayne State University and relocated to Chicago, where he worked as a senior financial analyst, first for Federal Mogul and later Barton, Inc.

Michael entered the personal finance field in 2007 when he joined MetLife Investors' Marketing and Distribution division. In 2013, he opened an Edward Jones office in Northville, Michigan, helping individual investors and small business owners with financial goal planning and wealth management.

Specialties

He joined Raymond James Financial Services in May of 2017 as a financial advisor specializing in financial planning, wealth management, and estate planning. 

Personal Life

Michael and his wife live in nearby Plymouth. In his spare time, he enjoys golf, the company of friends and family, and everything Detroit Sports.

How Much Guaranteed Income Should You Have In Retirement?

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®

How much guaranteed income (we’re talking Social Security, pension, and annuity income) should you have in retirement? I am frequently asked this by clients who are nearing or entering retirement AND are seeking our guidance on how to create not only a tax-efficient but well-diversified retirement paycheck. 

“The 50% Rule”

Although every situation is unique, in most cases, we want to see roughly 50% or more of a retiree’s spending need satisfied by fixed income. For example, if your goal is to spend $140,000 before-tax (gross) in retirement, ideally, we’d want to see roughly $70,000 or more come from a combination of Social Security, pension, or an annuity income stream. Reason being, this generally means less reliance on the portfolio for your spending needs. Of course, the withdrawal rate on your portfolio will also come into play when determining if your spending goal would be sustainable throughout retirement. To learn more about our thoughts on the “4% rule” and sequence of return risk, click here.  

Below is an illustration we use frequently with clients to help show where their retirement paycheck will be coming from. The chart also displays the portfolio withdrawal rate to give clients an idea if their desired spending level is realistic or not over the long-term.

Cash Targets

Once we have an idea of what is required to come from your actual portfolio to supplement your spending goal, we’ll typically leave 6 – 12 months (or more depending of course on someone’s risk tolerance) of cash on the “sidelines” to ensure the safety of your short-term cash needs. Believe it or not, since 1980, the average intra-year market decline for the S&P 500 has been 13.8%. Over those 40 years, however, 30 (75% of the time) have ended the year in positive territory:

Market declines are imminent and we want to plan ahead to help mitigate their potential impact. By having cash available at all times for your spending needs, it allows you to still receive income from your portfolio while giving it time to “heal” and recover – something that typically occurs within a 12-month time frame.

A real-world example of this is a client situation that occurred in late March 2020 when the market was going through its bottoming process due to COVID. I received a phone call from a couple who had an unforeseen long-term care event occur which required a one-time distribution that was close to 8% of their entire portfolio. At the time, the stock portion of their accounts was down north of 30% but thankfully, due to their 50% weighting in bonds, their total portfolio was down roughly 17% (still very painful considering the conservative allocation, however). We collectively decided to draw the income need entirely from several of the bond funds that were actually in positive territory at the time. While this did skew their overall allocation a bit and positioned them closer to 58% stock, 42% bond, we did not want to sell any of the equity funds that had been beaten up so badly. This proved to be a winning strategy as the equity funds we held off on selling ended the year up over 15%.  

As you begin the home stretch of your working career, it’s very important to begin dialing in on what you’re actually spending now, compared to what you’d like to spend in retirement.  Sometimes the numbers are very close and oftentimes, they are quite different.  As clients approach retirement, we work together to help determine this magic number and provide analysis on whether or not the spending goal is sustainable over the long-term.  From there, it’s our job to help re-create a retirement paycheck for you that meets your own unique goals.  Don’t hesitate to reach out if we can ever offer a first or second opinion on the best way to create your own retirement paycheck.

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

---

Opinions expressed are those of the author but not necessarily those of Raymond James, and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Charts in this article are for illustration purposes only.

Important Information for Tax Season 2020

Contributed by: Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®

As we prepare for tax season, we want to keep you apprised of when you can expect to receive your tax documentation from Raymond James.

2020 Form 1099 mailing schedule

• January 31 – Mailing of Form 1099-Q and Retirement Tax Packages

• February 15 – Mailing of original Form 1099s

• February 28 – Begin mailing delayed and amended Form 1099s

• March 15 – Final mailing of any remaining delayed original Form 1099s

Additional important information

Delayed Form 1099s

In an effort to capture delayed data on original Form 1099s, the IRS allows custodians (including Raymond James) to extend the mailing date until March 15, 2021, for clients who hold particular investments or who have had specific taxable events occur. Examples of delayed information include:

• Income reallocation related to mutual funds, real estate investment, unit investment, grantor and royalty trusts, as well as holding company depositary receipts

• Processing of original issue discount and mortgage-backed bonds

• Expected cost basis adjustments including, but not limited to, accounts holding certain types of fixed income securities and options

If you do have a delayed Form 1099, we may be able to generate a preliminary statement for you for informational purposes only, as the form is subject to change.

Amended Form 1099s

Even after delaying your Form 1099, please be aware that adjustments to your Form 1099 are still possible. Raymond James is required by the IRS to produce an amended Form 1099 if notice of such an adjustment is received after the original Form 1099 has been produced. There is no cutoff or deadline for amended Form 1099 statements. The following are some examples of reasons for amended Form 1099s:

• Income reallocation

• Adjustments to cost basis (due to the Economic Stabilization Act of 2008)

• Changes made by mutual fund companies related to foreign withholding

• Tax-exempt payments subject to alternative minimum tax

• Any portion of distributions derived from U.S. Treasury obligations

What can you do?

You should consider talking to your tax professional about whether it makes sense to file an extension with the IRS to give you additional time to file your tax return, particularly if you held any of the aforementioned securities during 2020.

If you receive an amended Form 1099 after you have already filed your tax return, you should consult with your tax professional about the requirements to re-file based on your individual tax circumstances.

You can find additional information here.

As you complete your taxes for this year, a copy of your tax return is one of the most powerful financial planning information tools we have. Whenever possible, we request that you send a copy of your return to your financial planner, associate financial planner, or client service associate upon filing. Thank you for your assistance in providing this information, which enhances our services to you.

We hope you find this additional information helpful. Please call us if you have any questions or concerns about the upcoming tax season.

Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional and Director of Operations at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She works with clients and their families to achieve their financial planning goals and also leads the client service, marketing, finance, and human resources departments.

---

Please note, changes in tax laws or regulations may occur at any time and could substantially impact your situation. Raymond James financial advisors do not render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Should Some Of Your Money Be In Bonds?

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

The Center's Director of Investments Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® explains 3 reasons why you should own bonds.

Through thoughtful financial planning, The Center wants to make sure that you achieve your goals regardless of what markets are doing for short periods of time.  We are often asked why we would want to own bonds in a portfolio (especially now with interest rates at all-time lows!). While equity markets generally provide positive returns, there are still periods when they do not.

By their nature, stocks are better than bonds at providing investment returns as there is more risk involved in investing.  There is no promise to repay your principal or interest along the way.  However, while stocks might be better at providing total returns, bonds can provide returns more consistently because of these “promises”.  If we were only focused on investment return, our portfolio would reflect 100% stocks. However, for most investors it still makes sense to continue holding bonds…here are a few reasons why!

Reason #1: To support a withdrawal strategy

One of the worst-case scenarios could have been retiring right before the Great Recession (late 2007).  What if you had retired right before this scenario and needed to withdraw money from your portfolio even as markets corrected?  Owning bonds during times of stress means there is a bucket within your portfolio that you can live on – perhaps for extended periods of time if needed – without having to touch stock positions that are down (they can even provide funds to deploy into equities opportunistically or through routine rebalancing).  Using bonds as your source of income during this time (both the interest and selling bond positions) allows the equity positions a chance to rebound (which usually happens as we have experienced in the past). 

Reason #2: Less Downside Capture

If you capture less of the downside it usually won’t take you nearly as long to get back to your “break-even” or back to where your portfolio value started before equity markets correct.  The below chart does a great job of showing how this looked after the Great Recession.  It shows the dark blue line [a portfolio mix of 60% stock(S&P 500) and 40% bonds (Barclays US aggregate bond index)] recovered nearly a year and a half earlier than a portfolio holding just stock.

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Reason #3: Better Investor Behavior

Never underestimate the shock of opening a statement and seeing a swift downturn in your nest egg!  An allocation to bonds can potentially really assist your portfolio in this aspect as shown by the chart above.  If you look at the February ’09 point on the chart and cover up everything to the right of that, ask yourself “Is the “green line” experience something you could shrug off and continue holding or even invest more at this point?”.  Now it is clear that you should have held on to your stock positions but in those moments back in 2009, we didn’t have the benefit of “hindsight” to lean on.

Current Events: What Do Bonds Have Going For Them Now?

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

All that being said, bonds are in a unique position right now (although similar to where we stood 5 years ago before rates started to rise).  So what do bonds have going for them other than just how they behave as part of your overall return experience?  There are a few tailwinds out there for bonds.  For U.S.-based bonds, while interest rates are low in the U.S., they are still better than other countries with the exception of emerging markets and below investment grade issues.  This steadily attracts buyers of our debt supporting prices even at these low-interest rates.

Another point is that we are still in the midst of a pandemic, there could continue to be unanticipated economic impacts that affect markets unexpectedly.  The economy is pretty vulnerable right now and when we are vulnerable an unexpected shock (black swan event) could have a larger than expected impact on markets if it were to occur.  Remember these are events no one could see coming (like the pandemic itself!).  Right now it is a far easier decision to sell stock positions and rebalance into bonds while calmer markets are prevailing than in the midst of a downturn.  These markets are pricing everything to perfection, rates staying low, Federal reserve continuing with their bond-buying strategies, vaccine dosages being deployed without a hiccup, no more widespread shutdowns, another government stimulus package, etc.  Things don’t always go to plan so adding to bonds helps to insulate you against events that are out of our control.

Another caveat to this is the lower interest rates are, the fewer bonds tend to correlate with stocks.  Meaning when rates are lower the assistance they provide during equity market downturns should be improved.

The chart below provides the historical basis for this view. It shows for each month since 1926 the stock-bond correlation over the subsequent 120 months (orange line). The chart also plots for each month where the 10-year Treasury yield stood (blue line). Notice that the two data series tend to rise and fall in unison, with higher Treasury yields associated with higher stock-bond correlations over the subsequent decade.  It also shows that while the 10-year treasury rate stays below 4% their performance remains uncorrelated or negatively correlated which is exactly what we are hoping for in the event of equity market volatility.

What If The Markets’ Worst Fears Are Realized And Rates Increase Causing Bonds To Lose Value?

A bad year of performance for bonds is far different than for equities.  This decade has had some tough years for bond positions.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate bond index has experienced a negative performance calendar year in 2013 (-1.98%) and two years where returns were essentially flat (2015 up .48% and 2018 up .1%).  While it is hard to predict the path of interest rates over the coming year diversification within your bond portfolio will be important.  For example, shortening the duration of the bond portion of your portfolio may help alleviate some of the risks of interest rates rising (remember when interest rates rise bond prices tend to fall).

I hope this helps your understanding as to why we are interested in still owning bonds as a portion of your investment portfolio!  Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions you may have!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is a Partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

---

This material is being provided for information purposes only. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Investing involves risk regardless of the strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that's generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. You cannot invest directly in any index. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices rise.

How to Decide Where to Live in Retirement

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

One of the issues for most retirees, once you have determined that you are ready to retire and can afford to do so, is where you want to live in retirement? This, of course, is a loaded question. There are so many factors that go into making this decision, and it is as much emotional as it is financial. I could certainly write a detailed commentary on this topic, but here we will provide some bullet points to provide some issues and decision points to consider.

Location, Location, Location.  For the majority of people, the most important decision in making the retirement living decision is the location. Will you remain in your pre-retirement community that you are familiar with?  Where are your friends, connections and social contacts?  Or will you make a change, perhaps to a different or warmer climate? To a more rural setting?  Or maybe closer to the city where health care, transportation, resources and cultural activities are more accessible?  You may decide to move closer to family at this point in your life — this may be a dangerous proposition — as growing and maturing families tend to move again just as you move to be near them, leaving you again stranded in a place where you know no one.  You may find that it is more important to find a location where you can be near friends that you can socialize with, that you have commonalities with and that will provide mutual support.

Once the location is determined, the physical space becomes important.  Will you stay in the same home you’ve always lived in and “age in place”?  If you decide to do that, it may become necessary to take a good hard look at your home and make sure that it is equipped to be safe and easy for you to live in for the next 20 – 30 years or so of your retirement, if that is your plan. And if you truly do wish to stay in your own home to age (according to a recent survey by the National Council on Aging, 9 in 10 seniors plans to stay in their own home to age), you have to plan ahead to make things as safe and accommodating for yourself and your spouse as possible, so there is not a need for you to need to move to an assisted living or nursing care facility in the unfortunate case that you have a medical emergency and your home is not equipped for you to stay there.  

For those who don’t desire to stay in their pre-retirement home, there are endless choices:

• You might decide to downsize to a smaller home, condo or apartment.

• You might choose to move into a senior-only community so that you can associate with people that are in the same life situation.

• You might choose to live in a multi-generational planned community.

• You might choose to live in a shared home situation — think of older adults sharing the same living space, expenses, and providing support and resources with one another (circa the Golden Girls).

• You might decide to move in with or share space with family members.

So, how do you go about making your decision about where and in what kind of house/housing facility to live in retirement?      

• Develop your criteria – What kind of climate are you looking for?  How active do you want your social life to be? What kind of access do you want to health care and other facilities? Make a list and search locations that fit your criteria.

• Identify neutral professionals to guide you

• Do a trial run

• Consult your family

• Put together a transition team

To move or not to move, that is the question.  And even making not to move — aging in place — does not mean that there are no choices or changes to make.  But if you do decide to make a move, it is a process that takes planning, and one that should not be taken lightly. Give the process serious consideration — it is a large part of your potential retirement planning picture.

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Q4 2020 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Closing the books on an eventful 2020

I think we can all agree that 2020 has been unlike anything we have experienced before! If 2020 had a spokesperson, it would be Mayhem from the Allstate commercials. From disturbing scenes of social unrest and racism to a major pandemic, crazy devastating wildfires and an ongoing trade war, not to mention, murder hornets and a very eventful election there have been many reasons why this year has been astounding!

The pandemic has been truly heartbreaking for the average American and the economy, despite this, the S&P 500 ended 2020 with fantastic returns of nearly 18.5%. Again, we are experiencing a large disparity in returns between technology companies and “value” stocks as represented by the Russell 1000 value index, up only 2.8% for the year in stark contrast. Check out the below chart showing the returns of the various S&P 500 sectors for 2020.

---

VIDEO: If you’d like to see our friendly faces...click to watch our commentary!

---

During the last quarter of the year, Emerging Markets and Small company stocks staged a large comeback as investors’ risk appetite increased.

However, whatever party equity markets were having, the economy was not invited!

Economic Update

Efforts to resume business amid the pandemic were rewarded during the latter half of 2020. Reeling back from a historical low of -31.4% during the second quarter, real GDP was 33.4% in the third quarter of 2020. That is a substantial comeback, but still around 3.5% shy of where it was during the fourth quarter of 2019. In other words, GDP is headed in the right direction, but we still have some catch-up work to do for full economic recovery. October readings support positive momentum for 4Q20 numbers. However, the surging cases of coronavirus infections over the holiday season may reflect slower growth at the end of the quarter and into 1Q21.

While it's easy to confuse positive stock market returns with economic growth, they are quite different. We can see this in the context of employment. Thirty-four percent of the S&P 500’s growth in 2020 can be attributed to technology, yet the technology sector only represents 2% of the US labor market. On the other hand, government, agriculture and other services, which is almost 40% of the labor market, is not even represented in the S&P 500. Concisely put, US stock strength doesn’t necessarily represent strength in the economy.

Digging into unemployment numbers, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 6.7% in November. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 during the same month. Note, this is the weakest pace of payroll increases since the start of the recovery, which reflects a larger challenge. While 56% of the jobs lost between February and April have come back, only about 7% of that comeback has happened since September. We’re witnessing how hard it has been to have business and job growth while maintaining measures created to prevent the spread of covid-19. Both are important, so future job growth is dependent on how we negotiate the two moving forward.

Finally, let’s talk about inflation. Headline CPI and core CPI rose 0.2% month on month in November. Year on year, headline CPI was 1.2% and core CPI was 1.6%. Headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were generally flat, at 1.1% and 1.4% year on year, respectively. Due to low energy prices and economic slack, inflation ended lower in 2020 than in 2019. However, 2021 may be a different story. With a vaccine-facilitated boost to economic activity, prices hit hardest by the pandemic (think sporting events, dining, concerts, hotel rates, airfare, rent) could strengthen. We’ll likely see depressed prices start to go up. Many suspect the Federal Reserve will recognize this inflation is based on temporary factors, and will not raise interest rates to compress it. We are keeping an eye on how things play out. Overall, 2021 could foster a low and rising inflation environment.

Other investment headlines: Tesla & Bitcoin

You may have noticed two headlines gaining a lot of attention in the 4th quarter from two of the most volatile investments seen in 2020: Tesla and Bitcoin. Tesla finally recorded its fourth consecutive profitable quarter in a row which prompted its entry into the S&P 500. This means that if you own any fund that tracks the index, you now own a piece of TSLA! Albeit a small piece, as it makes up about 1.5% of the index.

Bitcoin was also back making headlines as it broke past its previous high from late 2017 and rose above $28k per BTC by the end of the year. Is the digital currency a speculative asset with no value or the world currency of the future? That is yet to be decided, but as it currently stood at year-end its market cap was ~540B – about the same market cap as Berkshire Hathaway.

COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic took a turn for the worse during the 4th quarter of 2020. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all continued to climb, but December brought us a glimmer of hope as the FDA expedited the approval process for two vaccines to be distributed across the country. Governor Whitmer gave guidance for the prioritization in Michigan, and the first phase began in December with health care workers who have direct exposure to the virus receiving round 1 of the 2-round vaccine. All essential frontline workers will follow, starting first with those aged 75 and older, then ages 65-74 and adults ages 16-64 with underlying medical conditions, finishing up with the rest of adults aged 16 and over. Click here for more details. We hope that these vaccines are a light at the end of the tunnel, and wish you all health and happiness going into the New Year.

Government Update

The $900 billion fiscal stimulus act continued to face headwinds in the final hour as President Trump changed his stance on the support to families. He called for an increase to the prior negotiated $600 stimulus payments to $2,000. The House narrowly voted in favor of this package and the change, only to be met by resistance in the Republican-led Senate. Voting on this was delayed resulting in $600 stimulus payments getting issued.

The package includes new funding for:

• Small businesses with an expansion to the PPP program highlights including:

  • Guaranteed funding for first-time applications

  • Second loans with more expansive forgivable uses

  • Easier forgiveness process for loans under $150,000

  • Clarification that businesses can still deduct the (otherwise deductible) expenses of funds paid with this loan

  • Excludes publically traded companies and a business must demonstrate a 25% drop in revenue or more from 2019

• The second round of individual checks for individuals and families with phase-out starting at $75,000 of income. $600 per adult and child

• Extension of federal unemployment benefits including an additional $300 per week benefit to unemployed workers until March 14, 2021

• Moratorium on evictions through January 2021

• Various funding for state/local programs highlights including

  • $82 Billion to schools and colleges

  • $27 Billion to state highway, transit, rail and airports

  • $22 Billion to state healthcare funding

Restrictions placed on the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself amid the political battle of the stimulus package. It looks like the Fed may have to discontinue at the end of 2020 and potentially not be able to restart programs under the same terms that were backed by CARES Act funding, including:

• Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility – loans to investment grade businesses experiencing dislocation due to the pandemic

• Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility – the ability for the Fed to purchase investment-grade corporate debt to facilities liquidity in the credit markets

• Municipal Liquidity Facility – allows the Fed to purchase short term bonds from certain states, counties and cities to ensure access to funds throughout the pandemic

• Main Street Lending Program – support for small and medium-sized business loans

• Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility- support for AAA bonds backed by assets such as student/auto/credit card loans backed by the Small Business Administration (SBA)

Fed Chair Powell stated that these lending programs can still be restarted using Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund but the effort to restrict this particular aspect of the Fed’s lending authority can be viewed as Congress stepping in and exerting oversight powers to limit how far the Fed can go in support of critical market functions. We will be watching the evolution of this debate and if the Fed’s communications become more restrained as a result. In the future, we may not be able to expect the Federal Reserve to step in and start buying secondary market issues to support prices.

The new Biden Administration

The run-off election held on January 5th in Georgia determined who holds the Senate. Democrats needed to win both of the Senate seats in Georgia to split the Senate 50-50. This meant that the democrat Vice President would be the tie-breaking vote giving a slight edge to the Democrats. This was the last major hurdle in understanding the makeup of the government for the next couple of years. This democratic advantage paves the way for a more ambitious President Biden legislative agenda. See our post-election update webinar for a summary of potential agenda items for the Biden administration. A shortlist includes President-Elect Biden’s proposed tax increases on corporations, income for those in the highest tax bracket, capital gains and estate taxes, aggressive health care changes, and the Green New Deal. While markets and the economy may favor party splits between the Presidency and Congress, an all-Democratic situation has still yielded positive outcomes for markets. The below chart shows that 27% of the time the Democrats have been in control and GDP growth has been at its best during these times and returns have been good as well.

In the short term, we could see some near-term weakness in market reaction but President Biden has announced that we can expect a third wave of stimulus payments of $2,000 (or at least the additional $1,400 they were hoping for in the second round) so this could outweigh the risks of market downside in the near term. This still requires a 60 vote in the Senate to pass and may take until March to do so.

There could be some potential impacts to investors that we will be watching closely. Most notable are:

• Corporate tax rate increases and a minimum tax for corporations seems to be the biggest potential impact to markets under a Democratic sweep

• Changes to capital gains tax rates and the preferential tax rate on qualified dividends (although could be limited to those with incomes over $1 Million) could affect individual investor behavior

It’s important to remember that many factors impact markets with politics making up a small portion of those factors!

Hopefully in 2021 Mayhem sticks with the commercials but regardless of what happens, we are here as your partners to get you through whatever is thrown our way and help you achieve your financial goals. Thank you for the trust you place in us.

---

Sector Returns: Sectors are based on the GICX methodology. Return data are calculated by FactSet using constituents and weights as provided by Standard & Poor’s. Returns are cumulative total return for stated period, including reinvestment of dividends. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Bitcoin issuers are not registered with the SEC, and the bitcoin marketplace is currently unregulated. The prominent underlying risk of using bitcoin as a medium of exchange is that it is not authorized or regulated by any central bank. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a very speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment, and a potential total loss of their investment. Securities that have been classified as Bitcoin-related cannot be purchased or deposited in Raymond James client accounts. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Retirement Plan Contribution and Eligibility Limits for 2021

Contributed by: Robert Ingram, CFP®

For the New Year, the IRS had released its updated figures for retirement account contribution and income eligibility limits.  While most contribution limits remain unchanged from 2020, there are some small adjustments for 2021 certainly worth noting. 

Employer retirement plan contribution limits stay largely the same (401k, 403b, 457, and Thrift Savings)

• $19,500 annual employee elective deferral contribution limit (same as 2020)

• $6,000 “catch-up” contribution if over the age of 50 (same as 2020)

• The total amount that can be contributed to the defined contribution plan including all contribution types (e.g. employee deferrals, employer matching, and profit-sharing) is $58,000 or $64,500 if over the age of 50 (increased from $57,000 or $63,500 for age 50+ in 2020)

Traditional, Roth, SIMPLE, and SEP IRA contribution limits

• $6,000 annual employee elective deferral contribution limit (same as 2020)

• $6,000 “catch-up” contribution if over the age of 50 (same as 2020)

Traditional IRA deductibility income limits

Contributions to a traditional IRA may or may not be tax-deductible depending on your tax filing status, whether you are covered by a retirement plan through your employer, and your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI). The amount of a traditional IRA contribution that is deductible is reduced or “phased out” as your MAGI approaches the upper limits of the phase-out range. For example:

Single Filer

• Covered under a plan

• Partial deduction phase-out begins at $66,000 up to $76,000 (then above this no deduction) compared to 2020 (phase-out: $65,000 to $75,000)

Married filing jointly

• Spouse contributing to the IRA is covered under a plan

• Phase-out begins at $105,000 to $125,000 (compared to 2020: $104,000 to $124,000)

• Spouse contributing is not covered by a plan, but other spouse is covered under the plan

• Phase-out begins at $198,000 to $208,000 (compared to 2020: $196,000 to $206,000)

Roth IRA contribution income limits

Similar to making deductible contributions to a traditional IRA, being eligible to contribute up to the maximum contribution to a Roth IRA depends on your tax filing status and your MAGI. Your allowable contribution is reduced or "phased out" as your MAGI approaches the upper limits of the phase-out range. For 2021 the limits are as follows:

Single filer

• Partial contribution phase-out begins at $125,000 to $140,000 (compared to 2020: $124,000 to $139,000)

Married filing jointly

• Phase-out begins at $198,000 to $208,000 (compared to 2020: $196,000 to $206,000)

• If your income is over the limit and you cannot make a regular annual contribution, using a Roth IRA Conversion in different ways may be an appropriate strategy depending on your circumstances.

As we begin 2021, keep these updated figures on your radar when reviewing your retirement savings opportunities and updating your financial plan. However, as always, if you have any questions surrounding these changes, don’t hesitate to reach out to our team!

Have a happy and healthy New Year!

Robert Ingram, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® With more than 15 years of industry experience, he is a trusted source for local media outlets and frequent contributor to The Center’s “Money Centered” blog.