The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

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In Mid-August, The Inflation Reduction Act was signed into law. This law includes several clean-energy tax incentives, provides additional funding for the IRS, extends Affordable Care Act subsidies, implements a minimum corporate tax, and, for the first time, gives Medicare the power to negotiate prescription costs. Although there is doubt whether these provisions will reduce the current historically high inflation rates, the law provides support that is viewed as a breakthrough in climate-related policy.  

  • Energy and Climate Change Investments: Tax credits for individuals are extended to households that invest in energy-efficient home improvements. The credit is equal to 30% of the amount paid or up to $1,200/year for these improvements (an increase from the previous 10% rate). A $7,500 clean vehicle credit will be available for those who purchase a vehicle assembled in North America. The credit is allowed for cars with an MSRP of $55,000 or less and vans, SUVs, and trucks with an MSRP of $80,000 or less. (Before you run out and buy an electric car for the tax credit, make sure it qualifies. A list provided by the U.S. Department of Energy can be found here.)

  • IRS Funding: Reports of the IRS being underfunded and backed up has been heard for several years. The Inflation Reduction Act provides billions of dollars to the IRS over the next ten years to increase their workforce, update technology, and hopefully work through the accumulated backlog. 

  • Affordable Care Act Subsidies: The Inflation Reduction Act extended the premium tax credits for those enrolled in an Affordable Care Act insurance plan and whose income is up to 400% above the poverty line through 2025.  

  • Minimum Corporate Tax: The Act introduces a new corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT) on companies with income of more than $100 million per year. The 15% tax will be applied to excess income over a corporation’s AMT foreign tax credit for the year. 

  • Stock Buyback Excise Tax: In 2023, companies who purchase more than $1 million of their stock in a share repurchase program will be subject to a 1% excise tax.

  • Medicare Costs: The Inflation Reduction Act hopes to reduce out-of-pocket drug-related Medicare expenses by capping the annual limit. The out-of-pocket costs will be reduced to $4,000/year or less in 2024 and are set to be reduced again to $2,000/year in 2025. It requires the government to negotiate with drug manufacturers to lower prices, and it requires drug companies to pay Medicare in rebates if the cost of a drug increases at a rate higher than inflation. 

The list above is not exhaustive and does not include several other corporate clean-energy provisions, additional expanded Medicare benefits (insulin cost cap and free vaccinations), and, ultimately, hopes to reduce carbon emissions by 40% over the next eight years. 

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Summer 2022 Economics Summarized in 5 Charts

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Is inflation transitory again? Transitory was struck from the Federal Reserve's language after inflation didn't dwindle for a few months. But depending on your definition of short and long-term, it could still be viewed as transitory. Headline inflation was lower than expected for July, and most of the reduction came from energy. You can see the breakdown by month below.

Source: JP Morgan Weekly market update, BLS, FactSet

Unemployment hits a multi-decade low. This equates to difficulty in the hiring process for firms. Job openings are declining, but there are still two job openings for each unemployed person.

Source: Raymond James Weekly Headings

Source: U.S Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *JOLTS job openings from February 1974 to November 2000 are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates.  J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets – July 31, 2022.

Mortgage rates spiked and are coming back down, helping the affordability of buying a home again.

Source: Raymond James Weekly Headings

Yield curve inversion continues to steepen. There's much focus on the yield curve as it's usually an early signal for the economy slipping into recession (although technically, this definition has already been met with two negative quarters of GDP). This spells trouble for banks as they have to pay higher interest rates on short-term customer deposits like Certificate of Deposits but earn less on mortgages, for example. This money-losing gap can prompt banks to tighten up on lending.  

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

The Center: A Crain’s Detroit Cool Place to Work for Sixth Year

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We’re happy to announce The Center has been awarded Crain’s 2022 Cool Places to Work* in Michigan for the sixth consecutive year!  Crain’s Cool Places to Work was designed to identify, recognize, and honor the best places of employment in Michigan. The 2022 Cool Places to Work in Michigan list is made up of 100 companies in three size categories: small (15-49 employees), medium (50-249) and large (250+). Companies from across the state entered the two-part process to determine the Cool Places to Work in Michigan. The first part consisted of evaluating each nominated company’s workplace policies, practices, and demographics, and the second part consisted of an employee survey to measure the employee experience. The combined scores determined the final rankings.

THE CENTER WAY

The Center team has spoken, and it’s evident we’re all proud of benefits like professional development, education reimbursement, workplace committees, and social events. Our fun culture is developed over ping-pong tournaments, chili cook-offs, and volunteer work.

TEAMWORK DURING A PANDEMIC

“We are especially proud of how we’re managing the curveball 2020 threw us. When COVID-19 hit, we transitioned to working remotely and formed a response committee tasked with making the office a safe place to return to,” said Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®.

Managing office culture remotely comes with its difficulties, but none were significant enough to break the incredible community our office has developed.  We’ve started a book club to keep engaged and even brought in a little competition with our stock education bracket-style game, Market Madness and health challenges throughout the pandemic.  The health challenges helped keep the COVID 15lbs at bay.

Ultimately, The Center is a cool place to work because each team member contributes to a caring and positive workplace.

This ranking is not based in anyway on the individual's abilities in regards to providing investment advice or management. This ranking is not indicative of advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients' experience. Raymond James is not affiliated with Crain’s.

Student Loan Forgiveness Announced

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On Wednesday, August 24th, President Biden announced a highly anticipated plan to forgive a portion of student loan debt for approximately 43 million borrowers. He also extended the pandemic-driven student loan repayment freeze through the end of the year.

For single taxpayers making less than $125,000/year and Joint or head of household taxpayers making less than $250,000/year, $10,000 of their current student loan balance will be forgiven. For those with Pell Grant debt who meet these income requirements, $20,000 will be forgiven. Pell Grants were given to students with "exceptional financial need." The annual amount of this type of grant awarded is capped at $6,895 for the 2022-2023 school year, and the limit has historically been lower with slight increases each year.

Regardless of the loan type, the amount forgiven will be tax-free. However, whether eligibility will be phased out based on income or a cliff (meaning income $1 over the limits would eliminate eligibility) is unclear.

Loans taken out after June 30th, 2022, will not qualify for this relief. However, current college students who are still considered dependents will be eligible for forgiveness based on their parent's income.

Details on how to apply for forgiveness are still pending, with the understanding that an application will be available before the December 31st repayment freeze ending date. The need to submit an application and certify income will likely be required. Those repaying their student loans through an income-driven repayment plan must certify income yearly. There's also the possibility that some portion of loans will automatically be forgiven if the Department of Education has current and relevant income data. We expect that additional and more detailed guidance will be released in the coming weeks.

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC® and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

The History of Labor Day

Kelsey Arvai Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, MBA

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We celebrate Labor Day to recognize the contribution and achievements of American workers. It unofficially marks the end of summer and is traditionally observed on the first Monday in September.

The history of Labor Day is somewhat grim. At the height of the Industrial Revolution, in the late 1800s, the average American worked 12-hour days and seven days a week to scrape together a decent living. To emphasize the dire working and living conditions, children as young as five or six worked in mills, factories, and mines across the country.

Most workers faced unsafe working conditions with insufficient access to fresh air, sanitary facilities, and break time. Because of this, labor unions first appeared in the late 18th century. Workers began organizing strikes and rallies to protest poor conditions and compel employers to renegotiate hours and pay. On September 5, 1882, 10,000 workers took unpaid time off to march from City Hall to Union Square in New York City, holding the first Labor Day parade in US history.

The “workingmen’s holiday” caught on in other industrial cities, and many states passed legislation recognizing it. Congress legalized the holiday 12 years after workers in Chicago went on strike to protest wage cuts and the firing of union representatives.

We can thank our labor leaders for the fact that we get to enjoy weekends off, a 40-hour work week, sick days, and paid time off. Thousands of Americans have marched, protested, and participated in strikes to create fairer, more equitable labor laws and workplaces – and still do today. So kick back, relax, and enjoy your long weekend!

Kelsey Arvai, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

What to Expect Going Forward - The Economy and Your Investments

Nicholas Boguth Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®

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At the beginning of the month, RJ released some market commentary with the striking line…

"While inflation fears remain high, it is likely that we are past peak inflation and the largest interest rate increases are behind us."

This year has been riddled with reasons to worry about the economy and your investments, but some encouraging data has been released that may provide some optimism. Jobs surprised on the upside early in August, the stock market has bounced off of its lows, personal consumption remains high, and we've seen gas prices come down to provide relief at the pumps.  

RJ ends the commentary with some more encouragement…

"We likely have more weakness to endure, but Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, says investors can expect positive returns over the next 12 months and beyond, given the view that economic weakness should be relatively mild and inflation will moderate. Long-term investors should anticipate an eventual rally on the other side of this weak trend and take advantage of potential buying opportunities. Bear markets go down 20% to 35% on average, but bull markets average roughly 150% returns.

While volatility feels uncomfortable, experience suggests that adaptability and a cool head will help weather any market environment and position for the future.”

It's been a rough year for most asset classes YTD. Still, the pain and uncertainty also provide opportunity as bond yields increase and stock valuations decrease, suggesting higher expected returns going forward. We're continually monitoring the changing environment and are happy to answer any questions you may have about how it all affects or doesn't affect your overall financial plan. 

Nicholas Boguth, CFA® is a Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

This market commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth, CFA® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

5 Tips to Keep in Mind for Financial Awareness Day

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Sunday, August 14th, marks National Financial Awareness Day. For many, unless you decide to focus on finances at some point in your life or you're already working with a professional, you may be left unsure whether you're making the right decisions and progressing toward financial independence. The good news is that a few steps can be taken to help you get on a sound financial path. 

Tip #1: Make a budget. And stick to it.

This is one of the most challenging steps for many to accomplish. There are things we need to pay for like housing, food, insurance, gas, and utility bills, and then there are unessential, discretionary items like clothes, concerts, and going out for dinner and drinks. Therefore, it's important to track your spending. How much of your overall budget goes toward the essentials each month? How much are discretionary or lifestyle expenses? If there are areas within the discretionary bucket that can be reduced and could ultimately be allocated toward additional savings, commit to making that adjustment. Budgeting is the foundation of getting ahead financially and progressing toward your goals.

It's also a good idea to look at your net income. Subtract out your fixed and essential expenses, and then allocate the leftover money towards savings goals and discretionary spending. Consider an online budgeting tool or app to help you achieve this.

Tip #2: Save.

Sure this seems obvious, but it's common to feel unsure of how much to save and whether you're saving enough. Saving depends on your age and the amount you've accumulated so far. It also depends on how much you plan to spend in retirement or what your upcoming financial goals require. If your employer has a retirement plan in place, it's important to contribute at least enough to take advantage of the employer match.

Many would suggest that you should always try to contribute the maximum amount allowed into your employer's retirement plans. When you consider current and future tax rates, timeline to retirement, and savings balances today, it gets more complicated. If you're later in your career and have accumulated a good balance, you may have the flexibility to reduce your savings rate and possibly your income. If you're behind and need to catch up, pushing yourself out of your comfort zone and saving aggressively may be necessary. If you're just venturing into the workforce, your income may be lower now than in the future. In this example, you may want to work in Roth IRA or 401k savings instead of tax-deferred vehicles. 

Saving rates are personal. Life is about balance and saving the amount right for you, your family, and your goals. 

Tip #3: Invest. 

But only take on the amount of risk that you can afford. Determining the appropriate blend of stock, bonds, and cash is essential to both growing and preserving wealth. In recent years of stock market growth, picking a lemon of an investment has been challenging. 2022, however, has reminded us of the importance of diversification and your overall allocation mix. If you have an investment strategy in place, now is not the time to abandon that plan. High inflation, rising interest rates, and international turmoil have created a volatile environment, but it can also create opportunities. If you have yet to invest, there's no better time than now to get a plan in place.  

If the idea of investing seems foreign, I suggest you review our Investor Basics blog series that our outstanding investment department provided a few years ago: 

Tip #4: Understand your credit score.

For a number that's so important to our ability to buy a home, purchase a car, or rent an apartment, credit scores can feel mysterious and sometimes frustrating. In reality, a formula is used to determine our credit score, and five main factors are considered. 

  • 35% Payment History: Payment history is one of the most significant components of your credit score. Have you paid your bills in the past? Did you pay them on time?

  • 30% Amounts Owed: Just owing money doesn't necessarily mean you are a high-risk borrower. However, having a high percentage of your available credit used will negatively affect your credit score.

  • 15% Length of Credit History: Generally, having a longer credit history will increase your overall score (assuming other aspects look good). However, even people with a short credit history can still have a good score if they aren't maxing out their credit card and are paying bills on time.

  • 10% New Credit Opened: Opening several lines of credit in a short period almost always adversely affects your score. The impact is even greater for people that don't have a long credit history. Opening multiple lines of credit is generally viewed as high-risk behavior.

  • 10% Types of Credit You Have: A FICO score will consider retail account credit (i.e., Macy's card), installment loans, mortgage loans, and traditional credit cards (Visa/ MasterCard, etc.). So, having credit cards and installment loans with a good payment history will raise your credit score. 

It's important to manage your debt balance, only take out credit when necessary, and pay your bills on time. If you already have credit cards, student loans, and/or personal loans, try to pay off balances with higher interest rates to keep them from becoming unmanageable. Some people find it easier to pay off a smaller balance first, giving them a sense of progress and accomplishment. This is a more than acceptable start to proper debt management.

Tip #5: Work with a Professional.

There's no better time than now to build the foundation for financial security and independence. Working with a professional can help you answer questions and address the unknowns. By making smart decisions now, you're positioning yourself for future success. Use these helpful tips, and keep progressing toward the ultimate goal of a worry-free, financial future and retirement. 

Feel free to contact your team here at The Center with any questions. Take control now, and you'll rule your finances – not the other way around!

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ and not necessarily those of Raymond James. 401(k) plans are long-term retirement savings vehicles. Withdrawal of pre-tax contributions and/or earnings will be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59 1/2, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty. Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

What is Retirees’ Biggest Fear?

Sandy Adams Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

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I recently attended a conference on aging where the presenter discussed the biggest fears of clients approaching and entering retirement. The question was posed to the audience, “What do you think the biggest fear of clients entering retirement is according to recent research?” As I thought about the possible answers given my interactions with clients, so many possibilities came to mind. The fear of running out of money, a detrimental stock market causing the loss of significant assets, or the loss of a spouse without being able to fulfill retirement goals. Then the speaker said very bluntly, “Alzheimer’s disease.” Wow!

It makes a lot of sense. The most current Alzheimer’s Association Facts and Figures report that 1 in 3 seniors pass away from Alzheimer’s or other dementia (more than breast cancer and prostate cancer combined). More than 6 million Americans are currently living with Alzheimer’s disease; that number has increased 145% over the last decade and 16% during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the cost to the nation of Alzheimer’s and other dementias was over $355 billion (that number is projected to be $1.1 trillion by 2050 if no cure is found).

Even more impactful to our clients and families, over 11 million Americans provide unpaid care for people with Alzheimer’s or other dementia; this includes an estimated 15.3 billion hours valued at nearly $257 billion. It’s no surprise that retirees’ biggest fear is Alzheimer’s, whether it’s getting the disease or becoming a caregiver to a spouse who gets the disease and having retirement derailed by an illness that currently has no cure.

Thinking about this from a financial planning and retirement planning perspective, there are likely two significant and very different issues. First and foremost is FOMO, or the Fear Of Missing Out. Alzheimer’s and related dementias most certainly steal many opportunities from clients’ to live out their ideal retirement; to enjoy the happy, HEALTHY next phase of life they always planned for. The fear of missing out on that if an Alzheimer’s dementia were received for one or both of a spousal couple is real, especially if that diagnosis comes early in retirement.

Second, and most significant, is the financial impact of an Alzheimer’s diagnosis on the overall retirement plan. In 2019, the Alzheimer’s Association reported that the average lifetime cost for caring for a person with dementia was $357,297. For most clients without a Long Term Care plan or Long Term Care insurance, these costs could certainly be detrimental to their overall retirement plan.

Planning in advance of a diagnosis is always recommended. So, what are some specific action items that might be recommended?

  • Consider Long Term Care before retirement (the longer you wait, the more expensive solutions can be, and the more likely you can become uninsurable).

  • Seek the advice of a team consisting of a financial advisor, estate planning/elder law attorney, and a qualified tax professional to formulate the best possible future long-term care funding strategy. This is often the best defense against the attack of a disease that can significantly impact your plan in the future.

  • Plan to have a family discussion about your long-term care plan to ensure your family is aware of your wishes and their potential roles in your plan. Have a facilitator guide the meeting if you feel that might make the meeting run smoother. 

“Thinking will not overcome fear, but action will.” W. Clement Stone

Planning ahead and preparing is your best defense against your fears. If you have not yet started planning for your aging future or your potential long-term care needs in retirement, there is no time like the present. Reach out to your financial advisor to develop a team of professionals and start planning today!

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Raymond James is not affiliated with Sandra D. Adams, CFP®. The cost and availability of Long Term Care insurance depend on factors such as age, health, and the type and amount of insurance purchased. These policies have exclusions and/or limitations. As with most financial decisions, there are expenses associated with the purchase of Long Term Care insurance. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the insurance company.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

10 Investment Themes for Mid-Year 2022

The Center Contributed by: Center Investment Department

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Along with this investment commentary, we'll be answering your most commonly asked questions during market volatility, recession, and inflation in our BONUS on-demand webinar.

The first half of 2022 has seen a surge in interest rates, volatile equity and bond markets, and geopolitical conflict. All while investors have been recalibrating their expectations on the Fed’s timeline for interest rate increases. Economic data shows soaring prices and a very tight labor market, strengthening the case for the Fed to take aggressive action to tame inflation. Complicating matters for the global economy, China’s Covid-related shutdowns have exacerbated supply chain disruptions.

During these uncertain times, we want to highlight ten different themes we are thinking about right now and how they may impact your investments. However, despite these themes, it is important to remember that your financial plan is the most important theme to us through all market conditions. The financial plans we design are built to withstand markets like we are experiencing today and even worse. Everyone uses a different map to chart their destination. Some destinations are a week away, and some destinations are years away. Rest assured, your plan is designed with your final destination in mind, and this type of volatility is expected along the way!

Theme 1: Rising Risk of Recession

While no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession yet, it is looking more likely that we could enter one. Two-quarters of negative GDP (one of which has already happened in the first quarter) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections will impact whether we hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic research weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

Theme 2: Inflation

Inflation has been more persistent than many anticipated this year (including the Fed). Government stimulus money is still in bank accounts, driving our desire to purchase, which hasn’t fully been spent. This past quarter is the first time in a long time that we have finally seen this number start to level off and come down. This is likely due to higher prices. Supply chain disruptions are still present, but we are feeling some relief. Remember the chart earlier in the year that we referenced showing over 100 container ships waiting outside Los Angeles and Long Beach, California (one of the biggest ports in the country)? That number is down to 34 as of May. Chip shortages continue to persist with no end in sight, forcing companies to innovate as much as possible to manufacture items like cars with fewer chips.

Theme 3: Interest Rates

In June, the Fed responded to the higher-than-expected inflation number with a .75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds target rate to 1.75% after .25% and .5% rate increases earlier in the year. The Fed has shown that it is ready to fight inflation and update its plan accordingly as new information becomes available. The bond market is also expecting a .5%-.75% rate increase in July. The U.S. is not alone, as 45 central banks in other nations have also increased interest rates. If inflation starts to quiet and recession data starts to accelerate, the Fed could begin to pull back on its rate-hiking plans. Quantitative tightening (Q.T.) has also begun.

The chart below shows the rate of Q.T. for the $1 trillion run rate that is anticipated. In most months this year, the Fed will let the maturities happen and not replace those bonds. Most months show more maturities than is needed, so the Fed will still be buying bonds in these months. There are only two months this year where the Fed will need to actively trim some bonds from their balance sheet (the blue bar each month shows the amount of bonds maturing on their own, and the orange bar is the amount that the Fed would need to reduce by)

Theme 4: Geopolitical Conflicts

Sadly, the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight. While these headlines are not directly impacting day-to-day market moves anymore, their repercussions from sanctions on Russia continue to affect other macro-economic factors such as rising energy prices, which directly impact inflation.

Theme 5: Mid-Term Elections

As we look at the mid-term elections this November, it does look like the Blue Wave of Democratic control is on thin ice. The three things that are against the Democrats are:

History: History suggests that the incumbent party loses around 25- 30 seats during the mid-term elections.

President’s Approval Rating: The lower the President’s approval rating, the more significant the losses. With President Biden’s approval rating around 42%, that would suggest losses closer to the 30-seat level as it is lower than usual. But the question is - will his approval rating continue to languish in the low 40s?  

Retirement: This is also a headwind from Democrats’ bid to maintain the House, as 25 sitting Democrats are retiring. This is the largest number of Democrat retirements with a Democrat in office since 1996. 

Theme 6: Cryptocurrency Volatility

Cryptocurrencies continue to make headlines. This time, however, the headlines are related to the meltdown experienced. Last year, many people touted Cryptocurrencies as the only true inflation hedge…until they were not. In the past quarter, most Cryptocurrencies have dropped more than 50%. Coinmarketcap.com shows the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies reaching a high point of $2.9 trillion last November. As of the end of the quarter, that number fell to $850 billion – a 70% crash. Additionally, some individual cryptocurrencies have fallen over 90% just this year! Speculation and volatility are and will continue to be a hallmark of this asset. Proceed with caution if you do so on your own, as this is not an asset we recommend holding as part of your long-term asset allocation!

Theme 7: Do Something or Do Nothing?

Please continue reading to see what we are doing in portfolios right now. Investors often feel the need to do something when markets are volatile, as the fight or flight instinct has been ingrained into our being for hundreds of years. If you are doing something, ensure it is driven by the right reasons, as doing the wrong things can be very costly to your long-term financial success. The graph below shows that investors, as a whole, get the timing wrong by selling low and buying high. Following the herd can result in achieving almost 50% less return (orange bar below - 5.5%) than a buy and hold investor (yellow bar below - 10.7%). Let us worry about when it is time to do something as it is often best to buy and hold.

Theme 8: Elevated Oil Prices

Energy has by far been the best performing sector in the market, but this does not mean it will be the best performing sector in the future. Usually, by the time something is making headlines, the returns have already been booked. However, looking ahead, this bought of high gas prices will do more to spur our country toward utilizing renewable resources than any lobbying group or politician could hope to accomplish on their own. As fossil fuel prices continue to rise, alternative fuels are more cost-effective and can accelerate

Theme 9: Diversification

U.S. Large Cap stocks have been the darling asset class of the past decade, which has tempted many investors to ditch other asset classes in favor of more U.S. stocks. But as 2022 has shown, there is a considerable risk in concentrating your investments into one asset class if that asset class ends up being one of the worst performers of the year. We consider it especially risky to load up on a single asset class AFTER we have already seen a vast period of outperformance like in the U.S. stock market over the past ten years. 

Global valuations are much cheaper than they are here in the U.S. Studies have shown that lower valuations tend to suggest higher returns, which is another major reason to hold your international investments. 

Grandeur Peak, one of our international investment managers, referenced this quote in their quarterly letter that we believe applies to the question of U.S. vs. international investments today: 

The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum ‘on average,’ it actually spends very little of its time there. Instead, it is almost always swinging toward or away from the extremes of its arc. But whenever the pendulum is near either extreme, it is inevitable that it will move back toward the midpoint sooner or later. In fact, it is the movement toward an extreme itself that supplies the energy for the swing back.” (Howard Marks, Memo to Clients, 4/11/1991)

2022 has been painful for investment performance across almost every asset class. The silver lining, in our opinion, is that diversification is still a success story. A diversified set of asset classes has dampened the drawdown so far this year, making the hard investment times a little less painful. 

Diversification is a core principle of the Center’s investment process, making international stocks, bonds, and other alternative asset classes key components of our portfolios going forward. 

Theme 10: Portfolio Management During Market Drawdowns

We have been busy behind the scenes tax-loss harvesting, thinking about timely Roth conversions, if that is a strategy you are employing, rebalancing, and ensuring cash needs are met. We are also monitoring factors that may tell us when to lighten up on or add to equities. While these factors are meant to trigger rarely, as there is a shift in incoming information from our broad set of barometers, there may be changes in our outlook and strategy.

We encourage you to watch our on-demand webinar if you are interested in hearing more. To access the webinar, enter your email address and the webinar will be accessible immediately after!

As always, feel free to reach out if you have additional questions. We are happy to help! Until next time, enjoy your summer.

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Why Retirement Planning is Like Climbing Mount Everest

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Mount Everest. One of the most beautiful natural wonders in the world. With an elevation of just over 29,000 feet, it's the highest mountain above sea level. As you would expect, climbing Mount Everest is a challenging and dangerous feat. Sadly, over 375 people have lost their lives making the trek. However, one thing that might surprise you is that the vast majority who have died on the mountain didn't pass away while climbing to the top. Believe it or not, the climb down or descent has caused the greatest fatalities. 

Case in point, Eric Arnold was a multiple Mount Everest climber who sadly died in 2016 on one of his climbs. Before he passed, he was interviewed by a local media outlet and was quoted as saying, "two-thirds of the accidents happen on the way down. If you get euphoric and think, 'I have reached my goal,' the most dangerous part is still ahead of you." Eric's quote struck me, and I couldn't help but think of the parallels his words had with retirement planning and how we, as advisers, help serve clients. Let me explain.   

Most of us will work 40+ years, save diligently, and hopefully invest wisely with the guidance of a trusted professional and the goal of retiring and happily living out the 'golden years.' It can be an exhilarating feeling – getting to the end of your career and knowing that you've accumulated sufficient assets to achieve the goals you've set for yourself and your family. However, we can't forget that the climb is only halfway done. We have to continue working together and develop a quality plan to help you on your climb down the mountain as well! When do I take Social Security? Which pension option should I elect? How do I navigate Medicare? Which accounts do I draw from to get me the money I need to live on in the most tax-efficient manner? How should my investment strategy change now that I'll be withdrawing from my portfolio instead of depositing funds? 

Even though you've reached the peak of the mountain – aka retirement - we must recognize that the work is far from over. There are still monumental financial decisions that will be made during the years you aren't working that most of us can't afford to get wrong. Ironically, this is when we find that many folks who have been fantastic "do-it-yourself" investors ultimately reach out to establish a professional relationship, given the magnitude of these ongoing decisions. They are ready for the "descent" and wish to delegate the financial matters in their lives to someone they trust. Our goal as your trusted advisor is to serve as your financial steward and help guide you, so you can focus your well-deserved time and energy in retirement on areas of your life that provide you meaning, fulfillment, and joy. 

As with those who climb Mount Everest, many financial plans that are in good shape when entering retirement can easily be derailed on the descent or when funds start to be withdrawn from your portfolio – aka the "decumulation" phase of retirement planning. A quality financial and investment strategy doesn't end upon retirement – this is when proper planning becomes even more critical, especially during periods of uncertainty and market volatility like we're currently experiencing. Reach out to us if we can help you on the climb – both up and down the mountain.  

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

Any opinions are those Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.