Investment Performance - 4th Quarter 2012

Source: Morningstar

Bonds represented by Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index a market-weighted index of US bonds. US Large Companies per S&P 500 Index a market-cap weighted index of large company stocks. Barclay’s Global Bond index is a market-cap weighted index of global bonds. US Small Companies per Russell 2000 Index a market-cap weighted index of smaller company stocks. International stocks measured by MSCI EAFE is a stock market index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the US and Canada. Commodities per Morgan Stanley Commodity Index a broadly diversified index designed to track commodity futures contracts on physical commodities. Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index is an unmanaged index that covers the universe of fixed-rate, noninvestment-grade debt. Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index is an unmanaged indexthat covers the universe of fixed-rate, noninvestment-grade debt.

Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Fiscal Cliff Limbo

It’s December 21st as I write this which is the artificial deadline we circled for a fiscal cliff resolution in 2012. By the time that you read this we may have a resolution, but as of this writing we do not. Last night the House of Representatives abruptly adjourned without voting on Speaker of the House John Boehner’s “Plan B”.

No insider expected Plan B to be the ultimate resolution of the fiscal cliff debate. It was a bargaining chip for Speaker Boehner to show united resolve from House GOP during negotiations with President Obama. With that resolve now shattered, eyes turn toward an increased role of Senate Leaders: Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Harry Reid.

Without action between now and year-end, a bundle of tax increases and spending cuts will become effective January 1. It is important to keep in mind that this bundle of changes accumulates over a full calendar year to equal the billions of dollars that have been estimated to reduce the economy. While it looks like a compromise will be difficult in the next few days, any action in 2013 could be retroactive to the end of 2012, especially on the income tax front.

Greg Valliere, Chief Political Strategist at Potomac Research, has noted this week that we are now in a worst case scenario. This doesn’t mean the full “cliff” will necessarily be realized, but Washington may look to the markets for a “crisis” prior to acting. As of yesterday’s close, the US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is trading above Election Day values. A pullback is not out of the question but recognize the fickle nature of political negotiations which make it very difficult to time peaks and valleys.

During this time, as always, we manage your portfolios with a steady hand recognizing that there are ebbs and flows in investing. You have stated goals for your investments related to your life needs. Our enduring purpose is to help you to achieve those goals through our investment and financial planning decisions. If you have any questions as we continue to navigate these choppy fiscal waters, please feel free to contact us.

On behalf of everyone at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®

Partner, Director of Investments

Required Disclosure: The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material, are not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and do not constitute a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The S&P 500is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that’s generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.

Post-Election Investment Update: Cold Shoulder and the Fiscal Cliff

It’s been a year and almost $6 billion dollars since the kick-off of the presidential campaign cycle. After all that, we are left with relatively few changes in terms of the composition of the executive and legislative branches. President Barack Obama decisively won in the Electoral College race, but when all was said and done, he garnered less than a 3% advantage over Mitt Romney. In the election aftermath or afterglow, depending on your perspective, all eyes are now on the Fiscal Cliff and other looming issues that the president and Congress were unable to tackle in the last four years. Here are our thoughts on the impact of the election for the economy and your investments.

The Fiscal Cliff

There are wide-ranging tax increases and spending cuts set to occur after January 1^st. These included mandatory spending cuts across the board, the end of the Bush-era tax cuts, Alternative Minimum Tax expansion and the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), investment income taxes, payroll tax holiday coming to an end, and more. All of this adds up to about $650 billion.

Some hoped for shifting control on Capitol Hill to address these issues, but this was not to be. With the same actors who could not resolve these issues for the last two years remaining in office, that seems to be wishful thinking. Some potential considerations:

• Compromise possible: Some components of the Fiscal Cliff are not attractive to either party and government doesn’t have to figure out everything at once. Look for the possibility of compromises for things like AMT and mandatory spending cuts to occur prior to congressional recess in December.
• Bush Tax Cuts: With much of the Republican House beholden to a “no tax increase” pledge, the expiration of Bush tax cuts as of the end of the year and then a roll-back of some of those increases for lower brackets is a threat favored by the most liberal wing of the Democratic Party. To us, this would be a disappointing result, but not out of the realm of possibility. Keep an eye on the discussion of what income level is left out. President Obama has said he wants tax increases for those making over $250,000. This is a starting point, but others have talked about levels upwards of $500,000 or $1,000,000.
• Kicking the Can Down the Road:  It’s certainly possible that a compromise will not be reached or mapped out prior to year-end. In the past, this has resulted in an infuriating form of procrastination by agreeing to delay a decision until some date down the road. The more this occurs, the worse off we are. We are especially concerned if there is a delay today because of the impact on corporate decision-making which is thirsting for some clear guidance about the road ahead. Further, if the arbitrary date gets too close to mid-term elections, we’ll be left with even longer odds for an agreement. That said, if there is true desire from those involved to tackle more significant tax overhaul, buying more time may be critical. The last major tax policy shift occurred in 1986. President Reagan and a Democrat-controlled Congress took two years to put a deal together, and they were more agreeable counterparties.
  
• Return of Volatility: Markets this year have had exceptionally low volatility when compared to recent years. Uncertainty and extreme possibilities will likely usher in very volatile returns through at least the end of the year and we’re already seeing this today. The more pain there is in the markets, the more likely that estranged parties become willing to work together for a solution. Do not be surprised if stock prices respond very positively and quickly if a compromise is reached.

Also on the Horizon

The Fiscal Cliff is not all that we should focus on as a result of the election. We are also watching:

• Federal Reserve: A Romney win would have meant much more uncertainty as to the future leader of the Federal Reserve vs. President Obama’s continued allegiance to Chairman Ben Bernanke. While Bernanke has said that he does not want to stay for another term (which ends in 2014), it is likely that the low interest rate mandate will remain with a Bernanke-esque nominee. Possible reasons for a change to the current zero interest rate policy? Robust GDP growth or significant inflation which we think may be more likely the longer easy money sticks around.
  
• Debt Ceiling: The current debt ceiling limit would be breached in early 2013 and coincides with the Fiscal Cliff discussions. Washington needs to remain on speaking terms to avoid the detriments of another failure to act on this issue.
  
• Treasury Secretary: Timothy Geithner has said he is not interested in remaining at the Treasury. President Obama’s nomination for replacement will be very important in terms of cooperation with Congress as well as opportunities to tackle the long-term debt issues for the US. Watch to see if the nominee has a reputation of bipartisanship and dealing with Congress or a more ideological persona. While the Fiscal Cliff is in the spotlight today, we believe a long-term path to sustainable growth coupled with lower government debt is a much more critical issue.

We are encouraged by several factors that may lead to better resolutions to the serious issues that must be resolved by Washington powers today. A second-term president moves from a focus on reelection to the desire for a lasting legacy. In our estimation, nothing would be deemed more critical, both by Americans today and the history books, than creating a long-term plan for debt while leaving the economy in better shape than it is today. While Republicans, especially in the House of Representatives, spent the last two years working to deny President Obama reelection, they will need more constructive accomplishments on their resume as they look toward mid-term elections in two years. Finally, there seems to be stronger organized encouragement from the business community led by Fortune 500 CEO’s encouraging both sides to set aside their differences and to come to the table.

While markets have welcomed the election results with a cold shoulder, year-to-date returns remain positive for many investments. As stated earlier, we are not surprised by more disrupted markets post-election. Uncertainty breeds volatility and we expect weeks and possibly months of posturing before we have a more clear direction going forward.

I encourage you to follow the 80/20 rule when it comes to concerns with the market: spend 80% of your time focusing on financial decisions you can control and less than 20% of your time on external worry and fear. As always, we’re here to help. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns.

On behalf of everyone at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®
Partner, Director of Investments

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users.

Investment Performance - 3rd Quarter 2012

Source: Morningstar

Bonds represented by Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index a market-weighted index of US bonds. US Large Companies per S&P 500 Index a market-cap weighted index of large company stocks. Barclay’s Global Bond index is a market-cap weighted index of global bonds. US Small Companies per Russell 2000 Index a market-cap weighted index of smaller company stocks. International stocks measured by MSCI EAFE is a stock market index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the US and Canada. Commodities per Morgan Stanley Commodity Index a broadly diversified index designed to track commodity futures contracts on physical commodities. Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index is an unmanaged index that covers the universe of fixed-rate, noninvestment-grade debt. Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index is an unmanaged indexthat covers the universe of fixed-rate, noninvestment-grade debt.

Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investment Commentary - 3rd Quarter 2012

Stock returns as measured by the S&P 500 were in the hole for the quarter coming into June. They rallied somewhat for the month so that those invested accordingly had the potential to recover some.  This time of year also marks some of our most intense research activities including the Morningstar Investment Conference. I summed up our thoughts on portfolio positioning and the Eurozone in a special June update so I'd like to discuss some new trends and themes today.

A laundry list of news items are catching our attention today. They converge to create a growing tally of changes at the margin which may have investment implications for you.

• We've sent you several communications about the changes to General Motors and Ford pensions. Even if you are not directly impacted, there may see similar changes if you have a defined benefit plan. Analysts believe that this is the start of a new wave of offloading pension obligations and that more announcements from other companies may follow. Our experiences show that the decisions to take a pension or lump-sum buyouts is largely personal and complex based upon your overall financial situation.

• Around the world, interest rates have been falling as slowing growth in China and EuroCrisis have been answered by government intervention. This may be one of the reasons that the MSCI EAFE is flat on the year in spite of dire headlines overseas. While interest rates would be challenged to go lower in the US, there is some room for government intervention around the world, especially in emerging markets -- think of Brazil as an example.

• A surprising slowdown in overall US debt growth has been occurring under our nose. No, the US federal debt load keeps growing, but there has been measurable deleveraging on the state and household levels. Some of this has come through the painful process of personal bankruptcy and foreclosures. States and municipalities have been practicing their own austerity with layoffs and less borrowing.

• The Affordable Care Act was largely upheld by the Supreme Court last month. This will have implications for Americans of all walks of life. For some of you some of the implications will be investment-related due to the 3.8% surtax on investment income in higher earnings brackets. This increase on investment income may not be the end given the pending expiration of "Bush" tax cuts. The coordination between tax strategy and investment management will become more and more critical in coming years.

• Scandalous headlines resurfaced at big banks, most recently JP Morgan and Barclays. JPM disclosed that it had major losses due to poor risk controls in exotic trades. The Barclay's LIBOR scandal is in its early days and may be much larger than it appears on the surface. Essentially, Barclay's has admitted that it fudged reports of borrowing costs over the last five years. Many Americans may have been negatively impacted since adjustable loans linked to LIBOR are widespread for mortgages, student loans, and car loans.

  We live in a heavily regulated financial world. I know this as much as anyone as each of these messages to you is reviewed in-depth by a compliance department prior to publishing. If I had my druthers, my day would involve less red tape and easier direct communication with you. The continued misbehavior of corporations and individuals alike seems to justify at least some of this burdensome regulation.

As the election season heats up, Angie Palacios, CFP®, Portfolio Coordinator, has focused her MoneyCentered blog posts on politics and investing. Click here to read the series.

Speaking of politics, I recently heard Columbia University Professor of History Eric Foner in an interview discussing Abraham Lincoln's presidency and leadership strengths. He mentioned that one of Lincoln’s strongest character traits was the ability to change his mind on critical issues. “Lincoln was a flip-flopper, if you want to use the terminology of modern politics.” While a politician today is accused of something close to political treason each time they tweak or change their mind, I value the ability to keep an open mind as an investor.

We think long and hard about what would be best for you as our clients and what worked yesterday may not always work tomorrow. We take the changing investment landscape into consideration as we make investment decisions while we will stick with our process which encourages us to analyze and evaluate risks and opportunities for you. Perhaps if our elected officials were afforded the same flexibility there would be more compromise and less frustration with our nation’s capital. 

I always enjoy hearing from those of you who are reading these investment updates. Don't hesitate to let me know if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for future topics.

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®
Partner, Director of Investments
Investment Advisor Representative, RJFS

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users.

June 2012 Investment Performance - 2nd Quarter 2012

Source: Morningstar

Bonds represented by Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index a market-weighted index of US bonds. US Large Companies per S&P 500 Index a market-cap weighted index of large company stocks. Barclay’s Global Bond index is a market-cap weighted index of global bonds. US Small Companies per Russell 2000 Index a market-cap weighted index of smaller company stocks. International stocks measured by MSCI EAFE is a stock market index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the US and Canada. Commodities per Morgan Stanley Commodity Index a broadly diversified index designed to track commodity futures contracts on physical commodities. 

Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

A Debt Surprise - 3rd Quarter 2012

It seems as though we American’s should be giving ourselves a pat on the back.  Ever since the financial crisis we have shown a noticeable improvement in our debt levels as a percent of gross disposable income.  About half of the excess debt (amount above the trend line or average growth in ratio of debt to disposable income) built up since the year 2000 has been eliminated.  The growth in debt over the past ten years sprang from the availability of home equity loans and most of this availability has dried up since the decrease in property values. 

Unfortunately our government can’t say the same yet.  While government debt is leveling off and slowly drifting downward looking at forward estimates, our politicians have a lot of work to do over the next decade or so tightening their belts.

It is quite common for households and corporations to lead the way in debt reduction during an economic recovery.  After all, it is far easier for us to reduce our spending (even though it may not feel like it!) since we don’t have to worry about winning the next election.  Also, governments delay their debt reduction in order to attempt to stimulate the economy by spending more so individuals and households can have healthier balance sheets.  Later the government can work to reduce their own debt. 

When looking under the hood we may not have as much to be proud of as we thought.  Sadly, much of the consumer debt reduction has come in the form of foreclosure and defaults.  Coming out the other side of this, consumers will have either less or more expensive credit available to them (partially due to lower credit scores and also due to no home equity to borrow upon) and thus won’t be able to fuel the economy quite so much as the government has come to expect in the last decade. 

Reduced consumer spending could make the government’s job much more difficult reducing their own debt.  The U.S. government is highly unlikely to default on their debt like consumers did so they would need to depend on GDP growth (among other factors like Inflation) to shrink overall debt levels.  And with consumers not spending as much it is unclear where this rebound in GDP will come from.

It seems logical to say “Enough is enough!” and make the hard cuts necessary to win this battle over debt in the coming years.  However, nothing is ever that simple when it comes to deciding what programs to actually cut and how that may affect other aspects of the meager economic recovery.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.

Barclay's, LIBOR, and What it Means for You - 3rd Quarter 2012

Just what the world needs today: another financial scandal involving banks and your money! An investigation initiated in 2007 has culminated in a nearly half billion dollar fine from Barclay’s and the possibility of an ever-expanding scandal.

The London Interbank Offered Rate (also known as LIBOR) is a common benchmark for financial instruments based upon the cost of borrowing between large banks around the world. If you read financial headlines, the last time you may have been thinking about LIBOR rate was in 2008 when the cost for borrowing between banks went through the roof. But, whether or not you’re following LIBOR, it’s not obscure. In fact, LIBOR is linked to more than $700 trillion in financial instruments around the world including adjustable mortgages, student loans, and car loans.

It turns out that Barclay’s (and quite probably other banks) were padding their own wallets leading up to the financial crisis by boosting LIBOR rates. This meant that derivatives on their books were paying off for the banks. They could also collect more on the loans they issued linked to LIBOR. It made their operations more profitable, possibly at the expense of your loan costs if you had adjustable rate loans. Another big victim may have been your local government as many municipalities have contracts tied to LIBOR.

That’s not all! Just as it helped to boost the LIBOR in 2007, it was very useful to report lower LIBOR rates amidst the global meltdown. Why? Well, lower borrowing meant you might be a stronger financial institution. This is a good thing if you’re trying to stay in business and prevent a bank run. Again, this goes back to the bank’s profitability with little regard for the victims of such a scam. And fudge those numbers they did!

How, you may ask, could they get away with this? LIBOR is managed based upon a glorified honor system. Banks are expected to look in the mirror each day and report their inter-bank borrowing costs. This self-reporting system seems to have lots of cracks, and many are saying that Barclay’s getting caught is just the tip of the iceberg.

Want to learn more? Here are some resources that further explore this unfolding topic:

• LIBOR for Mortals Marketplace Radio

• The Rotten Heart of Finance The Economist

• Infographic: The LIBOR Scandal Explained AccountingDegree.net via BusinessInsider.com 

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users.

June 2012 Investment Update

The year opened with a quarter of exceptional returns for markets such as the S&P 500. This rising tide was quickly curtailed in April and May. The ongoing European troubles have reached a new crescendo. Withering employment and housing numbers in the US added fuel to the fire in May.

The situation in Europe is complicated and includes both real economic challenges and unresolved political questions. The combination has led to a slow-moving crisis without the sign of an end. The primary issues we're watching today:

• Greece Unraveling. We do not know of any credible experts who think that Greece is solvent today. The insolvency is a foregone conclusion but related political upheaval has escalated the crisis. We now look to June 17 elections to determine remaining support for continued membership in the EU. A so-called "Grexit" would be unprecedented and would bring even more challenges to Greek recovery.
• Contagion in Spain & Italy. While Greeks have been wreaking havoc on their banks by hoarding Euros, Spain and Italy seem to be experiencing their own quiet bank run. Unemployment rates are very high in Spain and Italy and borrowing costs continue to rise for the governments. Earlier in the year, the ECB fiscal relief program infused money into banks, but did little to fix their exposure to bad sovereign debt along with other bad loans. Finding a way to secure investor sentiment in these economies remains critical.
• Slowing Growth. The odds of a European recession are high and growing. Meanwhile, signs of slowing growth are cropping up in places like China and here in the US.
• End of US Stimulus. "Operation Twist" is scheduled to wind down this spring and summer. We have long seen 2013 as challenging regardless of the presidential victor because of agreed-upon fiscal cuts plus tax breaks which are scheduled to expire. Add to that the need to rehash the debt ceiling discussion, and we know the US Government and Economy will be in headlines that rival Europe in the coming months. With US interest rates at record lows (going back to WWII), a new Fed program to buy even more treasuries would seem to offer very little in the form of help for investors.

What actions should investors take? We can share some strategies that we’re using with our clients from a financial planning and wealth management perspective.

• Work with a professional who is looking forward with today’s situation in mind. The challenges listed above have been on our minds and on the minds of our portfolio managers regardless of market returns. We discuss these issues on a daily and weekly basis within the firm as well as with money managers and peers. For many managers, a European outcome may be a "United States of Europe" approach with more centralized EU power. This, they say, will not happen without considerable effort and time.
• Look at your risk orientation. In 2011, we considered significant changes to positions for our clients in anticipation of sustained volatility (which we saw last summer and seems to be popping up again). From our point of view we may continue to see more uncertainty this summer and through the presidential election cycle in November. We have been underweight dedicated international positions and our managers have tilted portfolios toward Asia and away from Europe. We have incorporated alternative strategies which have historically had a less direct relationship to the whims of stocks and bonds. This is not a blanket prescription but our point of view. You should know your own posture in terms of investment mix.
• Stick with your plan. Because of the changes last year, we continue to be comfortable with portfolio positions today and do not anticipate a significant overhaul to portfolios. That said, our focus on monitoring investment mix in light of current scenarios is as vigilant as ever. If you have started a plan, you need too much change or doubt may result in a drag on your portfolio’s returns.
• Rebalance when appropriate. If markets continue to decline, we may rebalance portfolios into the assets that have declined. This is by design and meant to position investments through a forward-looking lens rather than the natural human tendency of focusing on the rear-view mirror. Ultimately, we believe that volatility will lead to buying opportunities.
• Talk to someone when you have concerns. Working with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ is a partnership. A financial planner can help uncover your concerns and find answers for your fears! Most importantly, when your financial situation is changing, make sure to update your overall financial plan and analyze your investment mix based upon the new information.

As the summer gets going, you should be able to enjoy barbecues with family and friends rather than worry about the ups and downs of stocks and bonds. Ultimately, you are investing so that you can achieve your financial goals. If you ever have questions about investing or comprehensive financial planning, don’t hesitate to contact us.

Sincerely,

Melissa Joy, CFP®
Partner, Director of Investments
Investment Advisor Representative, RJFS

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Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Alternative investments are available only to those who meet specific suitability requirements, including minimum net worth tests. There are special risks involved with alternative investments, including investment strategies, and different regulatory and reporting requirements. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Investment Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012

Stock investments roared into 2012 with the S&P 500 closing the first quarter up 12.59%. International markets also posted strong quarterly returns as investors seemed to feel that Greece compromises helped to avoid a chaotic default and seemed to buy some breathing room. The quarter was also notable formuted volatilityin equities. While stocks zoomed, bonds stalled and their returns were relatively unchanged.

Source: Morningstar Direct

Economic data seems to be disappointing bulls and bears alike. Pessimists are predicting recession, but leading indicators continue to suggest that things are getting better. Those more naturally optimistic are looking for better employment numbers and decisive growth. We break down unemployment trends here.For now, we think it’s best to be constructive and cautiously optimistic.

The exceptionally strong market returns of the last six months may mean that it’s time for a breather, or (in market speak) consolidation. Longer term, balance sheets and stock earnings continue to indicate corporate health. Another indicator, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shows recovery off of depressed lows over the summer, but is below the 30-year average. Keep in mind that stock dividends are rivaling Treasury bond yields and we are comfortable maintaining neutral allocations to stocks.

As the saying goes, “Don’t fight the Fed” and Operation Twist coupled with European Central Bank liquidity injections seem to be helping to support modest growth. On April 11th, Vice Chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen, indicated that low rates could extend beyond 2014if the pace of growth fails to accelerate. For more on the impact of recent Quantitative Easing on stocks, click here.

The lackadaisical recovery and Fed accommodation may be buying time for bondholders as the Fed works to keep interest rates low. Data shows that investors have continued throwing money into bonds in spite of the threat of rising interest rates. This may be good news for stocks as strong returns were not driven by investors “crowding in”. Conversely, the nearly insatiable public demand for bonds gives us pause. Those relishing the relative comfort that bond investments have offered in the past thirty years may want to reconsider future assumptions. Learn more about our concerns in bond markets and how we’re investing here.

We’ve just completed a blog series that discusses components of our investment process that you might find helpful.

Introduction: The Investor’s Chief Problem

Strategic Allocation: Building Your Foundation

Tactical Allocation: Deck the Halls with Tactical Allocation

Types of Investments: Time to Declutter

Buy Process: Salad Surprise

Sell Discipline: The Gambler

Rebalancing: Game Plan

If you have topics you would like us to cover in the future, please let us know! As always, we appreciate the opportunity to meet your financial planning and investment needs. Thank you!

Sincerely,

Melissa Joy, CFS

Partner & Director of Investments

Financial Associate, RJFS

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. U.S. government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. All indexes are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company’s board of directors.