Investment Lessons of 2016

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

As we embrace the fresh start of a new year, it is important that we retrace our steps to learn from our investment victories and missteps during 2016. I’m optimistic that reflection can help us become better investors in 2017.

A Look Back on 2016 Market Performance:

• First Quarter: US large equities beat US small and mid-equities (SMIDs) in the first quarter as both had positive runs. We witnessed value stocks shifting to outperform growth stocks and commodities make a comeback. Meanwhile, gold became one of the best performing assets. 

• Second Quarter: All three domestic market caps continued to have positive returns with U.S. SMIDs beginning to overtake U.S. large equities. Taking advantage of an improved energy sector, high yield bonds performed well. Emerging markets had both ups and downs, but rebounded by June. Yet, the unexpected BREXIT vote shook the MSCI EAFE and MSCI EAFE Small Cap indices emphasizing a flight to safety. Gold benefited from the flight as demand increased and the US dollar slightly upped the Euro. 

• Third Quarter: Domestic equities continued their success into the third quarter. Driven by the rising prices of crude oil, energy was up. Concurrently, high yield bonds also continued to recover. The price of gold fell, but ended the quarter positive overall. Internationals had positive returns. A weaker US dollar supported international fixed income returns. 

• Fourth Quarter:  The beginning of the fourth quarter was rough all around, but US equities rebounded by November. Election results helped US equity index funds see their largest monthly inflows in two years. Anticipated policy changes brought gains to commodities and financials, but hurt interest rate sensitive stocks. International investments for US investors were negatively impacted by a strengthened dollar.

Asset Flows: What Investors Did in 2016

Source: Morningstar Direct 2016

After an equity selloff in January 2016, investors flocked to fixed income most of the year. In a year of sluggish growth for the US, Europe, and Japan, bonds provided hope for those seeking modest but relatively predictable returns. As the inflow/outflows graph shows, taxable and municipal bond fund flows dominated without waiver. Apart from commodities (gold) and sector equity, all other categories were out of favor for most of the year. A post-election U-turn helped November bring in inflows for U.S. equity index funds, but it remains that the 2016 investor theme was seeking predictability (through bonds) in an unpredictable environment (populism, political uncertainty, and looming fiscal and monetary policies concerns).

Lessons Moving Forward

• Fear of the unknown can’t guide our investment decisions.  It is understandable to seek refuge when things are uncertain, but we may miss out on opportunities hiding under our shells. Buying bonds in 2016 may have helped limit negative exposure to curveball events, but if you used some of your portfolio’s equity budget to purchase them, you also missed the US equity run that persisted throughout the year. Similarly, portfolios placed on the sidelines after the US elections missed the equity surge that began shortly after. People who remained invested in equities in 2016 felt the hit of BREXIT as well as its fast recovery. They also experienced value stock comebacks. A diversified portfolio can help you maintain market participation and mitigate bumps in the road (market volatility) over time.

• 2016 reminded us that the world is unpredictable. No matter how smart, how informed, how technological, or well-researched - nobody can predict the future. In other words, we can’t allow predictions about the markets or economy change our long term, comprehensive investment plan. Admittedly, it is important to pay attention to what is happening in the world. Our gaze, however, should be focused on the long-term implications of that news. Multiple portfolio changes based on short-term noise undermines our investment strategy. We need to give ourselves the time to really understand and unravel the true long term risks/threats to our portfolio before modifying our strategy. 

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material, it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Opinions expressed are those of Jaclyn Jackson and are not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price being be subject to wide fluctuation; the market being relatively limited; the sources being concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market being unregulated. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index is an equity index which captures small cap representation across Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. Please note that direct investment in an index is not possible. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Fourth Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Some great research this quarter!  From a headline grabber, to sage words of wisdom from long tenured investors, take a look!

Kevin O’Leary from Shark Tank – 11/18/16 CFA® Society of Michigan

The investment department had the opportunity to listen to “Mr. Wonderful” himself discuss what he has learned being an entrepreneur and his outlook for 2017.  Highlights included that he prefers to invest in companies run by women because they set and accomplish achievable goals for themselves and their employees.  He also discussed his plan for the future generations of O’Learys.  He is not interested in handing his children a privileged life on a platter.  Rather he will pay for them from birth through college and then they are on their own to make their way in life.  The same will happen for their children and so on.  He said his mother taught him this important lesson:

“The only birds that dies leaving the nest are the ones that don't learn how to fly.”

Kevin's predictions for 2017 included:

1. Donald Trump wins the election (he called this a week before the election on television)

2. Oil will end 2017 under $50

3. The 10 year US Treasury bond interest rate will end the year under 3%

4. The S&P 500 will end 2017 at 2,300

5. Financials will underperform the S&P 500 in 2017

6. Real Estate Investment Trusts will outperform the S&P 500 in 2017

7. Energy will underperform the S&P500 in 2017

8. Russell 2000 will outperform the S&P 500 in 2017

9. Europe (currency unhedged) will surprise in 2017 and outperform US markets

Investment team gathers before the presentation: From left to right: Jaclyn Jackson, Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate, Lauren Adams CFA®, Director of Client Services, Melissa Joy CFP®, Partner; Angela Palacios CFP®, Director of Investments; Nicholas Boguth, Investment Research Associate

David Fisher of American Funds

It was a pleasure learning from David Fisher, equity portfolio manager at Capital Group, and his 50 years of investment experience.  David spent time discussing the culture of their firm and how important it has been over the years to attract and retain high quality investment professionals.  Analysts are compensated on how they perform relative to a benchmark rather than relative to each other.  They feel this has contributed strongly to their years of serving clients well.  David spent his career researching media, consumer electronic and electrical equipment companies.   He discussed how vastly those markets have changed over the years.  He said:

“If you don’t obsolete yourself, someone else will obsolete you.”

He was referring to Eastman Kodak.  Remember those cameras?  The type where you would have to take your film in to develop?  The company held the patent to digital technology and didn’t develop it because it would have put their profitable film and camera areas out of business!  Oops!

Scott Davis, Portfolio Manager of Columbia Dividend Income Fund

We have sat down many times with Scott.  He brings great perspective to our portfolios with his dividend growth focused strategy.  Many investors have chased dividend yields over the past few years when they found their bond portfolios lacking.  Scott argues that the quality of the dividend rather than the yield is most important.  Dividends are not contractually committed to like bond interest.  It is completely up to a Board of Directors whether the dividend is paid or not.  A high yield is only positive if it is sustainable.  A stock price generally depreciates very strongly before a dividend cut occurs, which is why the work Scott does is so important. 

He also discusses with corporate management the type of shareholders that they want to have.  A company’s shareholder base changes when they commit to paying/growing a dividend.  When doing this they have a more stable investor base that tends to hold a position longer term.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Holding investments for the long term does not insure a profitable outcome. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in the energy sector involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Kevin O'Leary, David Fisher, Capital Group, Scott Davis and/or Columbia Dividend Income Fund.

China's Currency - Revisited

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

I want to revisit a topic I first discussed back in March – China’s currency.

In the previous blog, I explained why China was devaluing their currency and what potential effects it could have on their economy. As previously stated, one of the biggest risks with currency devaluing is the risk of capital outflow. If investors think that there are better opportunities elsewhere, they will move themselves or their money into a country with stronger currency prospects. In the chart below, we can see this exact event currently happening in China.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/capital-flows

This is a topic that catches a lot of headlines, and it should be useful to have some background to filter through all the noise. We are likely to see headlines about how China is managing its currency well into the New Year; maybe headlines about Chinese goods getting cheaper as the US Dollar strengthens relative to the yuan, or you may have already seen the most recent headline about China placing restrictions to attempt to slow the capital outflow from the country. They want to slow this mass capital outflow because it is increasing their supply of yuan and triggering inflation that can be harmful in excess. We will stay tuned and observe how the country acts and reacts going forward. If you have any questions about these changes, don’t hesitate to reach out to the Investment Department here at The Center!

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Third Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

After a very interesting first half of the year with early negative returns, followed by Brexit in June, markets performed well in July and then quieted down in the month of August. September brought with it a bit of increased fluctuation when investors thought the Federal Reserve Board may raise rates at the September meeting but calmed back down when that fear subsided. As of October 1st the S&P 500 gained over 7.8% this year including dividends with nearly half of that gain (3.85%) coming in the third quarter. The year-to-date story, however, has not been told primarily by the S&P 500 as we have gotten so used to over the past several years. 

Diversification Works Again

This year other asset classes have had the opportunity to shine as Emerging markets; commodities and high yield have topped S&P 500 returns. Diversification seems to once again be working after a long drought. The chart below shows performance of various asset classes by year with the best performer’s bars on the top of the stack and worst relative performers on the bottom. Notice the Green line (S&P 500) has been near the top of the list for the past three years but that hasn’t been the norm over the last 14 years. This year we have returned to the more normal pattern where the S&P doesn’t dominate.

Source: Blackrock

Rate Hike Kicked Down the Road

Not surprisingly the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates last month. The dissention among the voting members, though, was surprising. Three members of the voting board voted for an interest rate increase going against Janet Yellen’s recommendations to hold course. This is the first noted dissention since 2014. The next meeting occurs in November just a few short days before the election. It is highly unlikely they will make waves that close to the election so it looks likely that if a rate increase occurs it will be at the December 13-14th meeting.

Election

I would be avoiding the elephant in the room if I didn’t mention the election. Jaclyn Jackson wrote a piece on political parties and their impact to your portfolio, I would encourage you to read this before making any rash investment decisions based on the election. The battle between Clinton and Trump is proving to fulfill every media fantasy. They both certainly make for excellent headlines. Trump will be doing his best to rally voters to change by making promises but also by making things seem worse in the economy than they likely are. While there is often some volatility leading into an election because of these negative headlines, usually after the decision has been made markets settle down and most often continue in a positive direction the remainder of the year.

Checkout Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, a special summary of the Morningstar ETF conference she attended.

Harvesting tax loss may sound counter-intuitive but can go a long way to enhance net after-tax returns for investors. Find out some strategies to implement and common mistakes to avoid.

This month Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, gives us an introduction to cost basis methods and what we typically have our clients utilize.

Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate, explains to us how just like the right mix of ingredients for a tasty meal, we also need to know the asset allocation mix that makes our investment journey palatable.

If you have topics you would like us to cover in the future, please let us know! As always, we appreciate the opportunity to meet your financial planning and investment needs. Thank you!

Angela Palacios, CFP®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investor Basics: Cost Basis Accounting

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

Cost basis: one of the many things we at The Center monitor in order to serve our clients. Most of us know that cost basis is the original value of a security (usually the purchase price), but a lesser known fact is that there are many different accounting methods used to calculate tax liability when the decision is made to sell a security. The table below describes the different methods available.

This is important because the incorrect accounting method could lead to an unnecessary or unexpected amount of capital gains. Hypothetical example: you bought 50 shares of Tesla back in 2012 when it was $30, and another 50 shares in 2014 when it was $200. Now it is 10/5/16, and you went to sell 50 shares at its current price of $210. How much of your sale would be considered capital gains? Well, if your accounting method was FIFO, the answer would be $180 per share, whereas if your accounting method was minimum tax (The Center’s default option) then it would be $10 per share.

The outcomes between accounting methods can be drastically different, and each method has its place depending on your objective. Decision-making from client to client may vary which is where the help of a financial professional can come into play. Please read our Director of Investments, Angela Palacios’, CFP®, Investor Ph.D. blog for insight into more strategies that The Center practices in order to help minimize tax burden.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This is a hypothetical example for illustration purpose only and does not represent an actual investment. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Investor PhD: Harvesting Losses and Avoiding Gains

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

This may sound counter-intuitive, but taking some measures to harvest tax losses on positions and avoiding unnecessary capital gains distributions this time of year can go a long way in improving your net (after tax) returns.

Make sure you are reviewing your portfolio throughout the year for tax losses to harvest.  Stock losses were at their peak during mid-February, but if you waited until this fall to think about tax loss harvesting you have most likely missed the boat as much of those losses have been recovered and moved on to higher highs. The end of the year is rarely the best time of the year to harvest tax losses. 

Harvesting losses doesn’t mean you are giving up on the position entirely. When you sell to harvest a loss you cannot have had a purchase into that security within the 30 days prior to and after the sale.  If you do you are violating the wash sale rule and the loss is disallowed by the IRS. Despite these restrictions, there are several ways you can carry out a successful loss harvesting strategy.

Loss harvesting strategies:

• Sell the position and hold cash for 30 days before re-purchasing the position. The downside here is that you are out of the investment and give up potential returns (or losses) during the 30 day window.

• Sell and immediately buy a position that is similar to maintain market exposure rather than sitting in cash for those 30 days. After the 30 day window is up you can sell the temporary holding and re-purchase that original investment.

• Purchase the position more than 30 days before you want to try to harvest a loss. Then after the 30 day time window is up you can sell the originally owned block of shares at the loss. Being able to specifically identify a tax lot of the security to sell will open this option up to you.

Common mistakes some people make when harvesting:

• Dividend reinvests count!!! So if you think you may employ this strategy and the position pays and reinvests a monthly dividend you may want to consider having that dividend pay to cash and just reinvest it yourself when appropriate or you will violate the wash sale rule.

• Purchasing a similar position and that position pays out a capital gain during the short time you own it.

• Creating a gain when selling the fund you moved to temporarily that wipes out any loss you harvest. Make the loss you harvest meaningful or be comfortable holding the temporary position longer.

• Buying the position in your IRA. This will violate the wash sale rule just like if you bought it in your taxable account. This is identified by social security numbers on your tax filing. So any accounts held under those same tax payer IDs are not allowed to purchase the security in that 30 day window of harvesting the losses.

Personal circumstances vary widely so it is critical to work with your tax professional and financial advisor to discuss more complicated strategies like this!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Third Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Special conference edition! September brought not only the beginning of school and cool evenings but also the Morningstar ETF conference. Jaclyn Jackson and I were able to take a few days away to attend some enlightening sessions full of hearty debate, idea sharing, and new information during the first week of September. Some of my key takeaways follow!

Key takeaways from the Morningstar ETF conference:

• The Sustainable investing (ESG or socially responsible preferences) space has grown rapidly in the past 5 years. 80% of companies in the S&P 500 published sustainability reports in 2015 verses only 20% in 2011. Sustainability reports discuss a variety of issues for the firm including pollution mitigation, water use, and best practices for attracting a diverse workforce. Institutions, women and younger investors have been driving this demand. To learn more click here.

• There is more than meets the eye when performing due diligence on index holdings and exchange traded investment options. A low expense ratio isn’t the bottom line of costs associated with an investment. Stocks that make up the index and how an index is built and changes over time can greatly impact unseen costs. Also the experience of the people trading the portfolio can have a large impact. 

• Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, shared her views on Central Bank Policies, recession probability, sluggish growth, and interest rates. She feels the risk of recession remains low. She also sees higher interest rates as a positive more than a negative. Savers are better for the economy then the spenders, according to Ms. Sonders, so it is time to give them a chance!

• Behavioral investing rounded out the sessions. Sarah Newcomb Ph.D., Behavioral Economist, rolled out Morningstar’s new tool kit on behavioral investing. In rocky markets we have a tendency to want to do something. Anything to make us feel better. Much like a soccer goalie during penalty kicks, the best thing they can do is to stay in the middle and do nothing, rather than try to anticipate and move in the wrong direction. Fans don’t like this though; they would rather see the goalie do something. In investing the best thing to do during turbulent markets is often to do nothing, but that goes against our own nature. Bottom line, we need to make a plan during calm times to prevent ourselves from making bad decisions in the moment.

Stay tuned all this week for more investment, market, and quarter three updates!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Finding the Right Asset Allocation

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Most delicious meals start with a great recipe.  A recipe tells you what ingredients are needed to make a meal and, importantly, how much of each ingredient is needed to make the meal taste good.  Just like we need to know the right mix of ingredients for a tasty meal, we also need to to know the asset allocation mix that makes our investment journey palatable.

Determining the Right Mix

Asset allocation is considered one of the most impactful factors in meeting investment goals.  It is the foundational mix of asset classes (stocks, bonds, cash, and cash alternatives) used to structure your investment plan; your investment recipe.  There are many ways to determine your asset allocation.  Asking the following questions will help:

• What are my financial goals?

• When do I need to achieve my financial goals?

• How much money will I be investing now or over time to facilitate my financial goals?

Seasoning to Taste

Now, suppose equity markets were down 20% and your portfolio was suffering.  Would you be tempted to sell your stock positions and purchase bonds instead? Figuring out an asset allocation based on goals, time horizons, and resources is essential, but means nothing if you can’t stick with it.  For certain ingredients, a recipe may instruct us to “season to taste”. In other words, some things are subjective and our feelings greatly influence whether we have a negative or positive experience.  For asset allocation, understanding your risk tolerance helps uncover personal attitudes about your investment strategy during challenging market scenarios.  It gives insight about your ability or willingness to lose some or all of your investment in exchange for greater potential returns.  When deciding our risks tolerances, we must understand: 

• The risks and rewards associated with the investment tools we use.

• How we deal with stress, loss, or unforeseen outcomes

• The risks associated with investing

Following the Recipe

When we follow a recipe closely, our meal usually turns out the way we expected.   In the same way, committing to your asset allocation increases the likelihood of meeting your investment goals.  Understanding your risks tolerances can reveal tendencies to undermine your asset allocation (i.e. selling or buying assets classes when we should not). Fortunately, there are a few strategies you can employ to help stay on track.  

• If you are risk adverse, diversifying your investments between and among asset categories can help to improve your returns for the levels of risks taken.

• If you find yourself buying or selling assets at the wrong time, routinely (annually, quarterly, or semi-annually) rebalancing your portfolio will force you to trim from the asset classes that have performed well in the past and purchase investments that have the potential to perform well in the future.

• If you find yourself chasing performance or buying investments when they are expensive, buying investments at a fixed dollar amount over a scheduled time frame, dollar cost averaging, can help you to purchase more shares of an investment when it is down relative to other assets (prices are low) and less shares when it is up relative to other assets (more expensive).  Ultimately, this can lower your average share cost over time.

Finding the right asset allocation for you is one of the most important aspects of developing your investment plan.  Luckily, getting clear about investment goals, time horizons, resources, and risks tolerances can help you mix the best recipe of asset categories to make your investment journey deliciously successful.

Jaclyn Jackson is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investmentdecision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and are not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider yourinvestment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment or investment decision. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy or strategies employed. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. Dollar-cost averaging does not ensure a profit or protect against loss, investors should consider their financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels.

3 Reasons Discretionary Investment Management could be Right for You

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

We all have busy lives. Whether you are getting down to business or enjoyingyour retirement to the fullest who wants to worry about missing a call from their advisor because something in their portfolio needs to be changed? Perhaps cash needs to be raised to meet that monthly withdrawal to your checking account so you can keep paying your traveling expenses. Or money has to be deposited to your investment account, if you are still saving, and needs to be invested. Regardless of your situation, many investors find it difficult to make time to manage their investment portfolios. We argue this is far too important to be left for a moment when you happen to have some spare time. 

What is Discretionary Management?

It is the process of delegating day-to-day investment decisions to your financial planner. Establishing an Investment Policy Statement that identifies the guidelines you need your portfolio managed within is the first and arguably the most important step. Investment decisions are then made on your behalf within the scope of this statement. It is kind of like utilizing a target date strategy in your employer’s 401(k). You tell it how old you are and when you are going to retire and all of the asset allocation, rebalancing and buy/sell decisions are made for you.

3 reasons this can be a suitable option for investors:

1. Frees up your time to do what you love most. Time is the resource we all struggle to get our hands on. Need I say more?

2. Markets move quickly and sometimes portfolios must also to respond. Changes can happen in a timely fashion whether you are within reach on your cell phone or not.

3. May reduce the potential for poor investor behavior. Let those not emotionally charged by fluctuations in the market make decisions on your behalf.

If you have questions on whether or not this is right for you and your portfolio don’t hesitate to contact us.  We’d be happy to help!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Second Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Ever heard of the Chinese curse?  “May you live in interesting times.”   We certainly have the interesting part covered this year! 

Voters are showing that around the world they are fed up with the status quo. Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee as the republican candidate for President of the United States while David Cameron, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, announced he will be stepping down after the UK voted to leave the European Union. 

Unfortunately, “interesting” usually translates to volatility in the markets and this quarter has been no exception. With the S&P 500 up 2.46% for the quarter and 3.84% as of June 30th for the year, the ride has not been as smooth as it may appear on the surface especially during the last trading week of the second quarter.

Brexit

An affirmative vote for the UK to leave the EU, or Brexit, caused a couple of days of uncomfortable downside volatility, but it did not last long. The media has a hay day with these “interesting” events and we find ourselves having to sift through the hype to dig into what an event really has to do with our portfolios. 

Let’s put some perspective around this. The United Kingdom only represents about 4% of the world’s GDP compared to the U.S. contributing 22% according to the World Bank’s Gross Domestic Product figures for 2015. In fact, the separation could take two years, after they invoke an agreement called article 50, to iron out the details and in the end may not even harm the world’s economy.  Article 50 must be invoked by the Prime Minister and likely won’t be done until later this year after David Cameron is replaced. 

The point here is that all is yet unknown and Brexit will certainly continue to cause headlines on occasion over the coming years as well as short term potential volatility. 

Overall, this should not impact long term returns in a significant way for most asset classes outside of the UK, and therefore we aren’t recommending a change to a diversified long-term investment strategy.   Our international holdings remain spread around the world and there are no outsized positions within the UK. These periods of short term volatility may be viewed as buying opportunities for our international portfolio managers.

Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve voted to stay their hand at the June meeting and did not raise interest rates again but left an opening to possibly raise rates at the July meeting. Economic data has come in at its continued slow growth trajectory while inflation has been benign causing the lack of interest rate increases by the Fed. The Fed was also concerned about the Brexit vote occurring one week after their meeting and this may have caused them to hold off as well. 

Bond markets remind us once again why it is important to hold them within a diversified portfolio. As volatility picks up they rarely fail to cushion our overall portfolio returns and this quarter has been no exception with the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index up 2.21%.

Your Plan and Portfolio

While interesting times may lead to volatility you can bet that some portions of your portfolio may outperform others in any year.  At the Center, we monitor the allocation of your portfolio on a regular basis.  When volatility presents an opportunity to rebalance we will act on your behalf or notify you if a change is needed.  Adding money to your portfolio, managing positions, and tax loss harvesting are some of the strategies that we can take advantage of during periods of volatility. We also anticipate future cash needs so funds are available regardless of market returns.

Here is some additional information we want to share with you this quarter:

Checkout Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, summarizing some of the research done over the past quarter by our Investment Department.

Investors often avoid that which they don’t understand despite the diversification or return benefits an asset class may provide. Check out Investor Ph.D .

This month Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, delves into the equities with a primer on investing in common and preferred stocks.

Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate, discusses some important developments for the Real Estate Investment Trust asset class.

We strive to keep you informed! You may tune in to our webinars for market updates (there is one coming up soon, Summer Market Update: Staying cool while markets are turbulent. Click here for information and to register). These are meant to supplement your conversations with us so don’t hesitate to reach out any time you have questions or concerns. Thank you for placing your trust in us!

Sincerely,
Angela Palacios CFP®
Director of Investments

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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Please note that all indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. An investor who purchases an investment product which attempts to mimic the performance of an index will incur expenses that would reduce returns. Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500): Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. Represents approximately 68% of the investable U.S. equity market. US Bonds represented by Barclay’s US Aggregate Bond Index a market-weighted index of US bonds. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.