ESG Investing: The Little Engine That Could

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

As children, many of us were made familiar with The Little Engine That Could, a story about a small railroad engine that overcame the seemingly impossible challenge of pulling heavy freight cars up and over an intimidating mountain. As we witness the unraveling of many government policies, alliances, and programs helpful to ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing such as dismantling carbon dioxide mitigation, leaving the Paris Agreement global pact, looming EPA budget cuts, etc., it would appear that an insurmountable amount of challenges could hurt ESG investment product performance.

Yet, like The Little Engine, the trend towards ESG investing is plugging ahead with great intensity. In fact, the recent focus on these issues has fired up investors and fund companies.  Leading research firm, Morningstar, has seen a four-fold increase in the use of ESG data in its cloud-based research platform used by asset managers, advisory firms and independent wealth managers since Trump’s election.  Net flows into ESG products in the first 6 months of 2017 have been greater than both 2014 and 2015.  With a dozen new open-end sustainable mutual funds, 2017 flows are also positioned to beat 2016 numbers.

Performance

Excluding ethical motivations, ESG transparency helps investors get a unique, “under the hood” analysis of company risk (or stability) that complements traditional research methods. For example, ESG risks are sometimes more prominent in foreign markets (autocratic governments, human rights issues, wage disparities, etc.).  The graph below demonstrates that ignoring ESG factors may lead to reduced returns for investors in emerging markets.

A study done by European Centre for Corporate Engagement (ECCE) also supports correlation between good ESG practices and financial performance for emerging-market companies.  Even in the case of developed markets, Hermes' global equities team research found that avoiding companies with bottom-decile corporate governance rankings could increase returns by 30 basis points (bps) per month.  To boot, research by index provider, MSCI, indicated that a company’s efforts towards sustainability, such as fair labor practices, good environmental stewardship, and diverse internal leadership, improves returns.

Is it Just Smart Business?

Going back to our metaphor, imagine that the Little Engine was little by design.  While the Little Engine had fewer cylinders and less horse power, it also burned less fuel.  Since the Little Engine was smaller, it weighed less and minimized wear and tear on the parts that supported it. Perhaps the company that owned or built the Little Engine designed it to save money on fuel, have fewer repairs, and prevent EPA emission fines from cutting into profits. 

This begs the question, Are companies that manage environmental, social, and governance factors just practicing smart business strategy?  Phil Davidson, co-manager of American Century Equity Income, stated it best in a Barron’s article, “Cutting corners on environmental issues, for instance, can lead to lawsuits, fines, and damages. Businesses that use less water and less power have lower costs and operate more efficiently. Good corporate governance plays a winning hand in capital allocation and is critical to corporate longevity. If a company is being managed for the short term to maximize revenue, that’s not sustainable.” 

Here to Stay

Despite political noise, it seems some fund companies and investors alike continue to embrace ESG strategies.  Research indicates monitoring risks factors that may affect the sustainability of a company may prove to support higher potential returns.  Perhaps ESG strategies are finally “up the hill” as they seem to be a more common part of one’s investment strategy.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.

2nd Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

You may have noticed 2017 has been an easy year to open your statements. Markets around the world have been trending in a positive direction with only short-lived bouts of risk aversion. As a whole, volatility is extremely low and getting lower by the day it seems. U.S. markets have enjoyed positive returns of 10% for the S&P 500 so far this year as of June 30, 2017. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index has also been up 2.27%.  Overseas has been the big story of the year with the MSCI EAFE returning 14.1% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returning about the same. This strong increase has occurred despite headwinds from Brexit negotiations that are beginning and are expected to be challenging as well as concerns over high and quickly growing debt levels in China.

The Federal Reserve has approved one more rate hike this quarter, during June, which was fully anticipated by markets. One more has been telegraphed by the Fed for this year and would likely come late fall/winter if it does at all. This last potential rate hike of 2017 will depend on the strength of economic data over the coming months.

The Economy

Our domestic economy continues to grow slowly but steadily. Wages are growing, although, at a pace slower than historical averages. Inflation has been more subdued than expected, in large part because wage growth has been muted. Unemployment has continued to fall, and it has become harder to fill open job positions. Low unemployment ultimately should result in wages increasing, but, so far, we have not seen an impact here in a meaningful way.  Energy prices increased over a year ago, and rent and housing costs are on the rise. These last two points serve to take away some of our discretionary spending money which is important to bolster Gross Domestic Product growth that has come in below the Fed’s expectations of 2.2% so far this year. 

Brexit – One year later

A little over one year ago, the British voted to exit the European Union on June 23rd, 2016.  As you may recall, this created quite a bit of volatility in the market leading up to and immediately after the decision. The British government stepped in quickly, vowing to support liquidity at banks and emphasized it would be an orderly divorce. This action assuaged fears resulting in the markets here in the U.S. as well as overseas bouncing back to where they had been prior the decision.  So one year later, what has the impact been?

1. The British pound is about 15% cheaper than where it was last year. While a cheaper pound helps boost the country’s exports, it, unfortunately, serves to increase the price of imports causing inflation within the country. If you were ever going to take a trip to England, now may be a good time as our dollar is much stronger than it has been in recent years!

2. Business investment in the U.K. has softened dramatically due to the uncertainty surrounding potential future tariffs. The Gross Domestic Product growth has also slowed as a result.

3. Immigration is falling into the U.K. meaning many jobs are having a hard time finding workers for farming and construction positions.

Affordable Care Act—Repeal?

ObamaCare is facing a threat of repeal in the Senate. The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is working to revise the bill to be looked at again in July after it met resistance from some members of the Republican Party. If he can’t create a bill all Republicans can agree on, then they will be forced to seek a more bi-partisan supported bill, further delaying any change. If repealed, volatility would likely increase in the healthcare sector, but the market effects would be very dependent on the terms that pass. This is something we will continue to keep our eyes on.

While it has been a tranquil year thus far, it is important not to let the resilience in stock markets lull you into a false sense of security. It is easy to forget what downside volatility feels like when we haven’t experienced a meaningful pullback in so long. Rebalancing your portfolio and keeping risk in check is important particularly in this stage of a bull market, when it may be tempting to reach for more. Check out our recent Mid-Year Investment Update webinar if you want to hear more information on these topics as well as other headlines this quarter!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Director of Investments
Financial Advisor  

Investment Pulse: Check out Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, a summary of investment-focused meetings for the quarter.

Investor Ph.D Series: Why paying a premium for bonds may be ok.

Investor Basics Series: Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, introduces us to bond options.

Of Financial Note:  Jaclyn Jackson, Portfolio Coordinator, continues her series on behavioral investing here.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indexes. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-business-economic-costs-banks-one-year-vote-anniversary-eu-exit-a7802596.html

Investor Ph.D.: Paying a Premium

Co-Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® and DewRina Lee

We aren’t talking Healthcare or Prada even, though you pay premiums for both. Rather, we are discussing why investors may pay a premium for bonds. Bonds are frequently purchased at prices below or above par; that is, at a discount or a premium. Bonds trade at a discount when the coupon rate is lower than the market interest rate, and they trade at a premium when its coupon rate is higher than the market interest rate.

For the purpose of this blog, we will be focusing mainly on the reasons behind why someone may choose a premium bond.

Take the following scenario:

Intuition seems to indicate that when deciding between a discount bond at a price of $970 and a premium bond at a price of $1,030, an investor should take the discount option. It’s always more fun to buy that Prada purse when it’s on sale right? But, there are times when you may want to pay the higher price, for example, if you want the latest season’s purse rather than last seasons.

But enough about my purse addiction, let’s get back to bonds. If the bond matures at $1,000, a discount bond holder who bought at $970 will be pocketing $30 while a premium bondholder who paid $1,030 will be losing $30, right? Not exactly. The higher price a premium bondholder has paid is made up for by the higher interest payments they will earn along the way. In many cases, the additional cash flow more than pays for the cost of the premium price paid up-front. Take a look at the following example:

Additionally, due to its larger cash flows, the time it takes to repay the initial investment is shortened. With all else equal, the higher the coupon rate, the shorter the duration. As such, premium bonds can be more defensive in a rising interest rate environment and potentially less volatile. Also, this larger cash flow allows investors to reinvest more in new bonds to capture potential rate increase. By no means does this mean that premium bonds are immune to rising rates; however, they may offer a way to capture the higher yields with some degree of downside protection in a declining market.

So why pay a premium? In essence, there are a few advantages of buying premium bonds:

• Higher coupon rate

• Shorter duration to pay off your initial investment

• Less sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates

• Opportunity to reinvest at a potentially higher rate.

Of course, there are additional risks and financial objectives that are personalized to each individual. Contact your financial planner to figure out how bonds may fit into your personalized financial plan!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

DewRina Lee is an intern at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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This information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete; it is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are those of Angela Palacios and DewRina Lee and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. The example provided is hypothetical and has been included for illustrative purposes only, it does not represent an actual investment.

Investor Basics: Embedded Bond Features

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

This time around in our “Investor Basics” series, we’re going to take a look at the most common bond features. For a dive into a more complex bond pricing topic, check out our Director of Investment’s Investor Ph. D blog on why buying premium bonds can make sense.

First off, what is an embedded bond feature?

An embedded bond feature is a provision attached to a bond that changes its maturity, risk, or liquidity. A bond issuer may release a bond with an embedded feature in order to make it more attractive to a bond buyer, or to give itself a more favorable debt structure. The most common types of embedded features that you may have seen in the market, and that I will briefly go over in this blog, are call, put, and conversions.

Call features give the issuer of the bond the right to “call” the bond back from the bondholder at a specific date. This provision benefits the issuer because they are able to buy back debt, and then issue new debt at a lower interest rate. A company will typically issue a callable bond when they believe that interest rates will decrease in the future. Since this feature benefits the issuer, the company will have to make the yield or maturity more attractive to entice a buyer.

Put features give the bondholder the right to “put” the bond back to the issuer at a specific date before it matures. This provision benefits the bondholder because it allows him or her to put the bond back to the issuer (maybe interest rates have risen or the company’s credit is deteriorating). Since this option benefits the bondholder, he or she may have to accept a lower yield or longer maturity on the bond.

Another common embedded bond feature is the conversion option. This actually lets the bondholder convert the bond into shares of the company’s stock at a predetermined price and date. A company may issue convertible bonds as a way to issue cheap debt (they may not have to pay as large of a coupon because they are giving the bondholder the option to convert their bond to stock).

Each of these bond features may have a place in an investor’s portfolio, but knowing when and how to include them can be complex and differs from investor to investor. If you have any questions on these bond topics or any others, feel free to reach out to us at any time!

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices generally rise.

Asset Flow Watch 2Q 2017

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

One of the most common ways to monitor consumer confidence and investor sentiment is to watch fund inflows and outflows. Market analysts use fund flows to measure sentiment within asset classes, sectors, or markets. This information (combined with other economic indicators) help identify trends and determine investment opportunities.

A new trend may be emerging as international fund flows are outpacing US fund flows in the second quarter. The move towards taxable bonds that began in January 2017 continued as investors have handled high U.S. stock valuations gingerly.

Asset Flows: What Investors Did This Quarter

An even distribution of flows went towards taxable bonds and international equities in April. The fear of France’s exit from the European Union dissipated as Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential elections. Accordingly, flows moved into foreign large blend funds. To boot, MSCI Emerging Markets Index returns (13.9%) increased inflows to diversified emerging markets. On the other hand, first quarter GDP growth (0.7%) and political unpredictability sucked life from post-election US equity inflows. 

By May, US equity deceleration evolved into outflows. International equity flows remained strong.  Taxable bond flows continued in spite of raised rates. Republican tax cut plans created municipals bond outflows; likely because investors don’t think federal tax exemptions will be as advantageous as they have been in the past. 

Early quarter trends have continued through June. As of June 21, 2017, US equity outflows were -$1.205 billion, international equity inflows were $1.467 billion, emerging markets inflows were $0.300 billion, and taxable bond inflows were $3.016 billion.

Is the US Equity Run Over?

While the debate about the end of the US equity run ensues among industry professionals, the discussion may be mute among investors. It appears that many investors, figuring the US recovery is further along than the rest of the world, have opted to either “play it conservative” with bonds or invest internationally where there is seemly more opportunity for equity values to grow.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material; it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making and investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. Please note direct investment in any index is not possible.

Investment Pulse: Q2 Edition

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

It has been another busy quarter! Check out some of our meeting highlights!

Andrew Adams, Senior Research Associate to both Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist as well as its Chief Economist

The Center had a chance to hear firsthand from one of Raymond James leading research associates. Andrew Adams paid a visit to our office this month to discuss the global market outlook. Andrew discussed how Raymond James believes that the U.S. equity market is still in the middle innings of a longer-term secular bull market that is more reminiscent of the post-WWII era and the 1982-2000 bull market than that of the 2000s decade. In response to questions about how the market could continue to go up without a major pullback, Andrew discussed that although the market pullback in the winter of 2016 was not technically a bear market (the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech stocks, only declined 15.1%), the average stock in the S&P 500 did decline 25% during that period. Andrew explained that Raymond James remains cautiously optimistic about U.S. equity markets going forward.

Scott Davis, Portfolio Manager of Columbia Dividend Income Fund

Scott gave us an update on where he sees markets now. Debt has been steadily expanding which indicates to him it is particularly important not to give up on quality at this stage of the market. Eight straight years of equity market gains make this the second oldest bull market since World War II. The run-up in stock prices also makes stocks expensive relative to corporate earnings growth, a potential risk factor going forward in his eyes. As the margin for safety has narrowed, he believes that any miss on expectations is likely to be punished, which makes careful stock selection even more important. That being said, Scott believes the American consumer is in good shape, and an expanding economy continues to provide a favorable environment for the equity market.

James Cook, Equity Specialist from Hermes Investment Management in London

This was our first conversation with the London-based firm. We were excited to discuss their Emerging Market strategy. This is the only dedicated Emerging Market strategy with an ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) mandate available to us. He spoke to us about the importance to remember that Emerging Markets aren’t a homogenous region. The sector is made up of very different countries spread all over the world that are driven by dissimilar factors. Many investors think that it is a space highly correlated to movements in commodities, which is true for some countries and company’s but not all. They apply research held to a developed market standard that they apply to emerging markets giving them a bias for high-quality positions.

That’s what our Investment Department has been up to for the second quarter of 2017. Please stay tuned to other insights throughout our Investment Week!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions of Scott Davis or James Cook. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

First Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

U.S. markets continued to enjoy positive returns for the first part of the year as the Trump rally extended through February. We began to see a small amount of volatility creep back into the market as March wore on and investors were left to continue to wait and see if there was any progress on economic and corporate friendly Trump policies. The S&P 500 ended the quarter in positive territory, up over 6%, while Bonds ended up just shy of 1% at .82% for the quarter, according to the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Developed international was the clear winner, up 7.25% on the quarter, for the MSCI EAFE Index. Economic data continues to flow in, sending a strong signal that the U.S. economy is healthy and sustainable.

Europe headlines ended the quarter centered on the long awaited invoking of Article 50. While purely a political event rather than a market-moving event, the trigger marks a point of no return for the split between the United Kingdom and the European Union.  The two year countdown on Brexit begins—get your popcorn and settle in to watch!

Steady Headwinds for Interest Rates Ahead

The Federal Reserve is proactively increasing interest rates this year and has begun with the first interest rate increase of the year in March. What is overlooked, though, is all of the assets still on the balance sheet from years of quantitative easing (QE), the process which the Fed has used to increase money in the economy by buying treasury bonds and flushing the system with liquidity. 

In addition to raising interest rates, The Fed will also continue its reverse QE process by letting the bonds they purchased simply mature and roll off the books, essentially taking that liquidity out of the system. Below, you will see a chart by maturity date for the rate this will happen. Because of the lumpy distribution of maturity dates, it is likely the Fed may try to smooth out this maturing process through a combination of letting the bonds mature and outright selling. This would prevent any one month or year from having an outsized event of pulling liquidity out of the economy, leading to bond volatility.

Source: JP Morgan

Auf wiedersehen T+3! 

In March, the SEC voted unanamously to shorten the trade settling cycle from a maximum of three days down to two. In the day and age of instant gratification, investors have been left scratching their heads wondering why they have to wait the traditional trade date plus three business days in order for the cash and securities to officially change hands after they trade. That meant that if you needed to withdraw funds from your account, you had to wait nearly one week after selling a security to receive a check. That wait will now be reduced by one day! While the biggest benefit is for you, the invester, we will notice there also may be other “behind the scenes” benefits. Some examples include:  reducing credit and counterparty risk, increased market liquidity, and lowering collateral requirements. This is slated to take effect on September 5th of this year.

Investment Pulse: Check out Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, a summary of investment-focused meetings for the quarter.

Investor Ph.D Series: 6 Points you should know about Technical Analysis: Fool’s errand or secret sauce?

Investor Basics Series: Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, introduces us to Fundamental Investing

Of Financial Note:  Jaclyn Jackson, Portfolio Coordinator, continues her series on behavioral investing here.

It is important to remember, even with markets up, not to become complacent with your portfolio. While many investors become laser-focused on their statements when volatility strikes, it is important to remember there is a laundry list of items that are best addressed when markets have been positive for an extended period of time:

• Plan for upcoming cash needs

• Rebalance portfolios

• Make your charitable contributions

• Don’t ditch your plan!

If you have questions surrounding any of these points, don’t hesitate to reach out to us! We are here to help! At The Center, we want to help each and every one of our clients to take charge of their financial futures. Newsletters, blogs, webinars and more can be found on our website to help you do so. This is all part of Living Your Plan™.  Thank you for placing your trust in us!

Angela Palacios, CFP®

Director of Investments

Financial Advisor

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. This information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy or strategies employed. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate bond market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. Please note direct investment in an index is not possible. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investor Ph.D. Series: 6 points you should know about Technical Analysis

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

While most often investors apply fundamental analysis when picking a suitable security to invest in, a less widely used strategy called technical analysis could be just as important. 

Why would you use it?

Here’s the scenario: you’ve researched and decided, “There is a strategy I have to invest in.” Perhaps it is a company that makes a widget and you think, “This is the best widget ever made and it is going to change everyone’s life!” Fundamental analysis helps you decide if Widget Producer A or Widget Producer B is the better-run company that is worthy of your investment dollars. But, does it matter what price you pay for that investment? Yes! This is where technical analysis can play a role in your portfolio decision making.

What is it?

Technical analysis, at its most basic level, only looks at supply and demand for a security. It attempts to find a trend or pattern in the price movement and volume of a traded security and decide if that trend is more likely to continue or reverse course.

How does it work?

Understanding basic assumptions behind technical analysis can be a key concept. First, it assumes that markets are efficient at all times; meaning everything that can be known about a company is known by all investors and reflected in the current price at which it is trading. Second, security prices move in trends; or, essentially, an object in motion stays in motion (or is much more likely to in the future). Third, history repeats itself. Investor behavior that caused prior patterns to occur is assumed to still be present and will likely repeat.

Which indicators are most commonly followed?

There are many indicators you can pick from when conducting technical research. Most investors that do this type of analysis have their favorites that fit with their own unique investing style. Some examples are: moving averages, volume, Oscillators, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trend lines or relative strength.

Where can I find this information?

There are many resources that have a “fee for service” out there that can be used to conduct technical analysis. Yahoo! Finance, on the other hand, is a free resource available online for anyone to view. Their interactive charts help make it easy to view many of the most common indicators with the click of a button.

Can anyone do this?

Yes! However, it can take time, consistency, skill, and experience to be able to do technical analysis well; and even then, so-called “experts” can get it wrong quite often.

While there is no silver bullet in investing, blending both fundamental and technical analysis can help investors toward a potentially better outcome. Is this a fool’s errand or the potential secret sauce? I will leave that up to the individual to decide!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Investor Basics: Intro to Fundamental Analysis

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

There are two major types of analysis when it comes to investing: Technical Analysis, which you can read more about in Angela Palacios', CFP®, Investor PhD blog, and Fundamental Analysis, which I will break down for you right now.

Ultimately, fundamental analysis is an evaluation of the financial position and performance of a company or strategy.

When doing fundamental analysis on a stock, the process involves breaking down all of the quantitative information found on the company’s financial statements. Digging into a company’s balance sheet tells you about their current position as it pertains to assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity. The information on income statements and statements of cash flow reveals how the company has performed, or how much expense, revenue, or profit it generated. Fundamental analysis also involves looking at qualitative factors such as management, the business model, accounting practices, and competitors. All of this data is then analyzed, compared to peers, and used to make an investment decision.

The graphic above lays out The Center’s investment selection process. You will see that there is both quantitative and qualitative fundamental analysis done when choosing the strategies in our model. The process is slightly different when comparing all strategies as opposed to only stocks, but the same considerations have to be taken into account before making an investment decision. We look at quantitative factors such as manager tenure, ownership, costs, risk metrics, and return metrics, just to name a few. We also look at a vast amount of qualitative information about the fund companies, managers, and investment team. Fundamental analysis is step one to selecting each individual strategy for our portfolios. If you have questions on how we build portfolios or fundamental analysis, please reach out to our investment team!

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Asset Flow Watch: First Quarter 2017

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

The U.S. economy showed improvement, even before last year’s election, and data since continues to trend well. Overall, consumer confidence and optimism remained high with the Trump administration policy most of the first quarter. One of the most common ways to monitor consumer confidence and investor sentiment is to watch fund inflows and outflows. Market analysts use fund flows to measure investor sentiment within asset classes, sectors, or markets. This information (combined with other economic indicators) helps savvy investors identify trends and determine potential investment opportunities.

Asset Flows: What Investors Did This Quarter

This quarter, investor demand increased in global stocks and taxable bonds. While at a slower pace, the Trump agenda (lower taxes, infrastructure spending, deregulation, etc.) continued to lure investors into US equities. In February, US equities saw double the flows they’d received in January (reflecting fewer outflows from active managers). Hopeful economic data from Europe generated inflows for international equities, which primarily went to passive strategies. Yet, the most divergent trend from 2016’s fourth quarter is that fixed income flows started a comeback with a favor toward taxable bonds, specifically, intermediate term bonds. In spite of looming rate-hikes, March 31st ended as fixed income’s twelfth consecutive week of inflows.

Forward Steps

We’ve witnessed post-election equity runs correlated with the anticipation of “business-beneficial” tax and regulation reform. Nonetheless, the House’s inability to repeal/replace the Affordable Care Act leaves doubt that the Trump agenda will progress as expected. Late 2016’s boost in stock returns could have overweighed portions of your equity allocation. At the same time, you may have also noticed a decrease or underweight to your bond allocation. Consider rebalancing back to your target allocation. In the face of Trump agenda uncertainty, rebalancing should help protect recent capital growth accumulation. As always, if you have questions or concerns when it comes to your portfolio, we are always happy to help!

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material; it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making and investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.