Political Parties and their Impact on Your Portfolio

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Primary season could be worrisome for some investors as they try to figure out who will become our next president, how that person’s political ideologies will influence stock markets, and ultimately how that may impact their investment portfolio performance. I’ve explored the most common myth about political parties and its effect on the US stock market - the result is pleasantly surprising. 

Myth:  Big government ideologies held by Democrats make them worse for the stock markets while small government and small business driven ideologies make Republicans best for the stock markets. 

Bust:  Whether a Democrat or Republican is elected, historical data indicates that it has no statistically significant bearing on US equity markets. Illustrated below, both parties have experienced a similar amount of presidential terms with positive equity returns based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900-2012. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Oppenheimer Funds. As of 12/31/14.

Even though Democrats edge out Republicans by return percentage, there really isn’t much difference once you adjust for the normal variation in stock market returns. The results are reassuring; markets aren’t largely swayed by the president’s political party. 

Tips for Politic-Proofing Your Portfolio

While political parties don’t necessarily dictate market performance, they do generate policy plays that influence the economy. Divergent policy priorities around issues like individual taxes, the environment, healthcare, financial regulation, Fed policy, etc. could affect specific market sectors (i.e. healthcare, energy, utilities, and financials). 

Yet, investors can be confident in deploying two key strategies to help armor their portfolios against sector specific market fluctuations: diversification and long term investing. Diversification works to improve portfolio risk return characteristics by spreading investment exposure across different asset classes. In other words, it can assist in buffering your portfolio from concentrated portfolio swings to help achieve better risk-adjusted returns. Likewise, long term investing generally guards against short term sector movements by providing those who stick to their investment strategy less volatile returns over time. When you have a well suited, diversified long term investment strategy, you don’t have to fall into the trap of investing based on the political climate.

For more information of the benefits of diversified investing, click here.

Jaclyn Jackson is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. Holding investments for the long term does not insure a profitable outcome.

Sell in May and Go Away, Revisited

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Questions arising during this election year have prompted me to revisit an old topic. This election year seems anything but average (or at the very least entertaining), but what happens when you layer in the old debate of whether it is a good idea to, “Sell in May and go away.” Will this election year be different? 

Markets tend to have their stronger performance between October and May, which, despite a major bump in the road during January and February this year, has certainly held true in the past year. 

This chart is for illustration purposes only.

There are many theories as to why this could be true:

• Investors tend to fund their IRA accounts either early or later in the year.
• There could be lower summer productivity for business.
• And the most obvious, people prefer to be outside rather than inside investing their money (especially in Michigan).

However, this year could be different. If you look at monthly returns in Election years the above picture is contradicted.

This chart is for illustration purposes only

Strategies involving the short-term timing of the markets usually end up hurting investors rather than preserving or boosting returns, so take caution.

I am often asked if investing should be held off until after the election during years like this. However, I believe experience teaches us that we are better off if we keep our voting and investing decisions separate.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to The Center blog.

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Source: The Big Picturehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

First Quarter 2016 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

The relatively benign appearing performance year-to-date of the S&P 500 of 1.35% does not tell the full story of the storm beneath.  Markets started out the year spooked by China and the prospects of four interest rate increases being projected by the Federal Reserve (the Fed).  Recessionary fears seemed to spike mid-February and then recede as economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing, employment, and consumer sentiment came in slightly better than expected or at least didn’t surprise to the downside. 

Janet Yellen, chair of the Fed, ended the quarter with a noticeably dovish speech justifying the Federal Open Market Committee’s lower path for rate increases by citing global growth risks.  The Fed now anticipates only two interest rate increases this year instead of their original four.  Meanwhile, interest rates overseas pushed farther into negative territory while the Bank of Japan introduced their own negative interest rate policy leaving the U.S. as one of the few havens in the world that is still providing yield. 

Last Year’s Losers are this Year’s Winners

2015 positive market returns were driven very narrowly by just a handful of stocks.  This year has turned on a dime with the worst performing companies of 2015 being the best performers in 2016.  The below chart breaks the S&P 500 up into 10 groups based on 2015 performance.  Group one represents the best performing stocks in 2015 and group ten represents the worst performing stocks in 2015.  The green and red bars represent performance from each of these groups during the first quarter of 2016.

*Bespoke Investment Group

Moderation in the U.S. Dollar

The dollar slowing its steady advance has helped to ease some of the headwinds for commodities, namely oil, as well as emerging markets debt and equities.  The dollar has given up some of its gains from 2015, due to lowered expectations of the Fed hiking rates.  It is quite common for currency markets to over-react to the monetary policy differences that we are seeing between the U.S. and other countries (negative interest rates overseas versus interest rate increases here at home) so we may yet see the dollar move back into slow strengthening mode.

Summer Real Estate Sizzles

Current housing markets seem to have a severe lack of supply of single family homes similar to the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.  Yet new homes being built are at much lower levels then they were during those years.  Prices will likely continue their upward trend of the past few years as demand continues to exceed supply.  Mortgage rates continue to be low especially after the Fed decided to put on the brakes of raising rates.  All of these factors should equate to a favorable market for home sellers. 

Here is some additional information we want to share with you this quarter:

Checkout the quarterly Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, summarizing some of the research done over the past quarter by our Investment Department. 

In honor of the Game of Thrones premier, Angie Palacios, CFP®, has also discovered a Game of Negative Interest rates that’s playing out in our world right now. Check out Investor Ph.D.

Confused by interest rates and interbank lending? Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, breaks it down for you in Investor Basics by using Game of Thrones.

It’s tax season, which also means refunds may be coming your way! Check out these scenarios from Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate, and see what the smartest plan for your refund is!

Quarters like this one remind us of the importance of diversification.  While a well-diversified portfolio will likely never generate the highest returns possible it also shouldn’t generate the lowest returns.  The primary goal is to manage your risk and keep the end goal of your financial plan at the forefront.  The key to success in investing is developing that plan with realistic goals and then sticking to it even during times like February when it is tempting to deviate. 

We thank you for your continued trust in us to help you through all types of markets to reach your goals.  If ever you have questions, please, don’t hesitate to reach out to me, your planner or any other members of our staff.

Angela Palacios, CFP®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

First Quarter 2016 Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

We hit the ground running in the New Year with great insight from outside experts on a wide array of topics ranging from fixed income research to how to conduct a more successful investment committee meeting and nearly everything in between!  Here is a summary of some of the highlights.

Chris Dillon, a global fixed income portfolio specialist with T. Rowe Price

An hour spent listening to Chris was one of the most informative yet exhausting hours of the quarter!  He spent much of his time explaining global complexities within the fixed income markets and how they could affect investors in the coming months.  Of particular interest was a discussion on negative rates and his opinion that we will likely look back on these negative interest rate policies around the world as being completely ineffective.  Also discussed was the coming money market reform here in the U.S. with the formation of Prime Money Markets that will have floating pricing (Net Asset Values).  While these will mostly affect institutional level investors his recommendation was not to purchase these, but they could create a fundamental change in the market place presenting interesting opportunities for short term bond investors.

Bob Collie, Chief Research strategist, Americas Institutional, Russell Investments

Bob discussed the difficulty of working in committees as it isn’t something that comes naturally to most people.  He offered many questions to ask ourselves to understand how our own investment committee measures up to others.  These answers helped identify areas to focus on improving.  Since our investment committee meets at least once a month you can imagine the agendas are usually very packed.  We need to make the most of our time together overseeing portfolios.  Areas we are focusing on improving after listening to Bob have been visioning (what does success of committee work look like), dynamic discussions, and pre-reading of agenda items and background research so we all have time to formulate our points for the discussion ahead of time.  We have already noted improvements during the meeting and outcomes from the meetings.  Hopefully even more improvements are on the horizon!

Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D., Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Senior Investment Strategy Advisor, Wisdom Tree

"Bubble, the most overused word in finance today."

He believes the market has an aggregation bias, if there are a few stocks or a sector that has large losses, like energy does now, the entire market can look skewed.  The energy sector is biasing the P-E index of the market upward making it look more expensive as a whole than it really is.  He thinks fundamentals have driven interest rates to zero rather than artificial means, the FED has simply followed suit reducing interest rates along the way.  Economic growth and risk aversion are the most important determinants of real rates.  Increased risk aversion, aging investors, a desire for liquidity and the de-risking of pension funds has increased demand for bonds forcing their yields lower.  Jeremy has always had a very bullish view on the markets and now seemed no different.  He feels returns over the coming years will fall in line with long term averages.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Chris Dillon, Bob Collie, Jeremy Siegel or the companies/organizations they represent. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

Investor Ph.D. Series: A Game of Negative Interest Rates

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

While many of us, including me, are eager for the new season of Game of Thrones to begin to see what happens next in Westeros, another game is surfacing around our world. Countries around the world are changing the rules of the game by pushing interest rates into negative territory. What happens when this occurs? Winter seems to be inevitable for the citizens in the seven kingdoms but is it inevitable for us?

My colleague Nick Boguth recently wrote a blog explaining the different types of interest rates: Policy, Interbank, and Bank lending rates. Each of the rates is affected differently when interest rates are pushed into negative territory but all are ultimately connected. 

When Policy Rates go Negative

This is the money paid to banks when they deposit their excess reserves with the Central Bank or have to borrow from the Central Bank to meet their reserve requirements. When these rates go negative it makes it cheaper for commercial banks to borrow to meet their reserve requirements but can actually cost the bank money when they park their excess reserves with the Central Bank overnight. Like the Iron Bank of Braavos “The Iron (Central) Bank will have its due.” This encourages banks to look around for something else to do with their excess reserves, like looking to each other to borrow from and lend to rather than the Central Bank. 

When Interbank Rates go Negative

Banks lending to each other is affected by negative rates as they must now pay to lend money to another bank. The only way they would do this is if they had to pay less to loan their money to another bank than to pay to park it at the Central Bank. Neither of these situations is desirable. Institutions desire to earn money on these excess reserves rather than pay to loan to anyone. That has spurred them to buy short-term government debt with their excess reserves to try to seek some yield and the result is that they have pushed Government yields in certain countries, like Germany, into negative territory too. This, in turn, also drags down rates on corporate debt as they are correlated to government bond yields. 

When Bank Lending Rates go Negative

The domino effect of all of these negative rates should pass through to the consumer but doesn’t always show up in lending rates. This negative deposit rate pushes down rates on short-term loans of other types of lending the bank does, like home and auto financing. But other factors, such as credit risk (while a Lannister always pays their debts, consumers don’t) and term premia can put a floor on how low rates can go to the consumer. Favorable lending rates also can be made up with charging consumers more to park their money in the bank. In theory, this downward pressure on rates is supposed to provide an economic boost while also weakening the country’s currency.

No one knows how the series Game of Thrones is going to end as the books have yet to be written. Like the show, the book has not yet been written on the full impact of negative interest rates either. It remains to be seen how this game ultimately ends!

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/macroeconomic-insights-folder/negative-interest-rates-101/img-01-slide.png

http://www.wsj.com/articles/everything-you-need-to-know-about-negative-rates-1456700481?cb=logged0.8200769642227588

This material is being provided for information purposes only. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

Investor Basics: Bank Loans, Interest Rates, and Game of Thrones

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

In the spirit of preparing for season six of Game of Thrones, this set of Investor Basics and Investor Ph.D blogs is aimed to discuss bank loans and interest rates with respect to the increasingly popular adventure/fantasy television series. Check out our Director of Investment’s blog “A Game of Negative Interest Rates” HERE.

There are three types of bank loans – 1: Central Bank Loans, 2: Interbank Loans, and 3: Consumer Loans. Each loan is between different parties and has a different interest rate.

Central Banks require commercial banks to meet reserve requirements to ensure their liquidity. At the end of every day, after all of a commercial bank’s clients deposit and withdraw money, if that bank has less than the reserve requirement then it has to borrow money to raise its reserves.

If it has to borrow money to raise its reserves, it has two options. It can either borrow from the Central Bank at the discount rate, or borrow from a fellow commercial bank that has excess reserves at the end of its business day. Commercial banks borrow from each other at the federal funds rate. Currently the discount rate is 1% and the federal funds rate is 0.5%. Obviously, commercial banks prefer to borrow at the lower rate, so interbank lending is much more common than borrowing from the Central Bank. Borrowing from the Central Bank is more of a last resort for commercial banks.

The third interest rate that banks deal with is the bank lending rate. This is the rate that we, the consumers, see when we walk into a commercial bank and ask for a loan. The discount rate and federal funds rate affect banks’ lending rates, but it is also influenced by how creditworthy the customer is, the banks’ operating costs, the term of the loan, and other factors.

For all you Game of Thrones fans, you can think of the Central Bank like the Iron Bank of Braavos. It is the most powerful financial institution in the world, but it only lends to those that can repay debts (e.g. the Central Bank only lends to commercial banks). Not just anyone can borrow from the Central Bank, but the Lannister’s can because “A Lannister always pays his debts.”  SPOILER ALERT coming for anyone who has not made it through season 5: Remember back to season 5 when the Iron Bank is forcing the Iron Throne to repay one-tenth of their debts? Lord Mace offers that House Tyrell could lend the Lannister’s some money so that they could meet the Iron Bank’s “reserve requirement” of one-tenth. This is interbank lending! Thankfully for us, the cost of borrowing money in real life is only the interest rate, whereas in Game of Thrones it could be one’s life.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

How Should I Use My Tax Refund?

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Tax filing season is over and many people are entitled to get money back from Uncle Sam.  While most of us are tempted to buy the latest gadget or book a vacation, there may be a better way to use your tax refund. If you are pondering what to do with your tax refund, here are a few questions to help determine whether you should SAVE, INVEST, or SPEND it.

Have you been delaying one of the following: car repair, dental or vision checks, or home improvement?

If you answered yes: SPEND

If you had to be conservative with your income last year and as a result postponed car, health, or home maintenance, you can use your tax refund to get those things done.  Postponing routine maintenance to save money short term may add up to huge expenses long term (i.e. having to purchase a new car, incurring major medical expenses, or dealing with costly home repairs.)

Do you have debt with high interest rates?

If you answered yes: SPEND

High interest rates really hurt over time. For instance, let’s say you have a $5,000 balance at 15% APR and only paid the minimum each month.  It would take you almost nine years to pay off the debt and cost you an additional $2,118 interest (a 42% increase to your original loan) for a total payment of $7,118. Use your tax return to dig out of the hole and get debt down as much as possible.

Could benefit from buying or increasing your insurance?

If you answered yes: SPEND

1. Consider personal umbrella insurance for expenses that exceed your normal home or auto liability coverage.

2. Make sure you have enough life insurance.

3. Beef up your insurance to protect against extreme weather conditions like flooding or different types of storm damage that are not normally included in a standard policy.  Similarly, you can use your tax refund to physically your home from tough weather conditions; clean gutters, trim low hanging branches, seal windows, repair your roof, stock an emergency kit, buy a generator, etc.

Have you had to use emergency funds the last couple of years to meet expenses?

If you answered yes: SAVE

Stuff happens and usually at unpredictable times, so it’s understandable that you may have dipped into your emergency reserves. You can use your tax refund to replenish rainy day funds.  The rule of thumb is to have at least 3-6 months of your expenses saved for emergencies. 

Are you considered a contract or contingent employee?

If you answered yes: SAVE

Temporary and contract employment has become pretty common in our labor-competitive economy where high paying positions are few and far between. If you paid estimated taxes, you may be eligible for a tax refund. Take this opportunity to build up savings to buffer against slow seasons or gaps in employment. 

Could you benefit from building up retirement savings?

If you answered yes: INVEST

Get ahead of the game with an early 2016 contribution to your Roth IRA or traditional IRA.  You can add up to $5,500 to your account (or $6,500 if you are age 50 or older).  Investing in a work sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k), 403(b), or 457(b) is also recommended so you could beef up your contributions for the rest of the year and use the refund to supplement your cash flow in the meantime. 

Are you interested saving for your child’s college education?

If you answered yes: INVEST

College expenses aren’t getting any cheaper and there’s no time like the present to start saving for your child’s college tuition.  Money invested in a 529 account could be used tax-free for college bills with the added bonus of a state income tax deduction for you contribution.

Could you benefit professionally from entering a certification program, attending conferences/seminar, or joining a professional organization?

If you answered yes: INVEST

It’s always a good idea to invest in your development.  Why not use your tax refund to propel your future?  Try a public speaking or professional writing course; attend a conference that will give you useful information or potentially widen your network.   

Did you answer “no” to all the questions above?

If you answered yes: HAVE FUN

Buy the latest gadget.  Book the vacation.  You’ve earned it!

Jaclyn Jackson is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Please include: Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members. Hypothetical examples are for illustration purposes only.

Retirement Behavior Zone

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

Let’s face it; market volatility isn’t a whole lot of fun for any investor—unless that volatility is on the upside, of course. When investments experience downward volatility it can be hard on the psyche. In my experience, however, there is one group that is hit especially emotionally hard: those clients that are on either side of two years from their retirement date. While those with long term horizons feel some pain, it is generally muted because the funds are needed in the distant future and it doesn’t seem to bother them as much. Similarly, those that have been in retirement for a while seem to have the “been there – done that” mentality. They have been through volatility before, hopefully have weathered past storms, and understand volatility is part of the process to potentially get fair returns over time.

But how about those within two years, either side, of retirement? Often times, these clients are the most concerned, and rightfully so. The time that folks switch from being a net saver for so many years to a net spender is emotionally challenging in many cases. As former partner Dan Boyce used to say, it feels like you are eating your seed corn. (Full disclosure – this city boy never really understood it but many a client nodded as if to confirm the saying!).

According to research underwritten by Prudential Securities, “economic researchers have found that emotions play a significant role in how people make financial decisions.” At first, my response was a yawn and a hope that Prudential didn’t pay too much for such a conclusion. Fortunately there was more to the study, something with a little more meat on the bone. The study suggests that the five years before and after retirement is critical. That understanding this behavioral risk becomes even more important. Two specific risks cited in the study include sequence risk and behavioral risk.

At the risk of downplaying behavior risk, it is one that we have some control of, after all. Poor investor behavior during this two year of period within retirement can be hazardous to your financial health, for a long time if not forever. What’s the prescription? Yes this is self-serving, but working with a third party professional can help improve investor behavior. Vanguard suggests that behavioral coaching may bring about as much as 150 basis points (or 1.5%) of value add by advisors.

The second risk, sequence risk, is very real and much less controllable. Large negative returns early in retirement can indeed impact one’s retirement years. Fortunately, for many, one large loss year usually isn’t enough to derail years of proper planning. Again, what’s the prescription? In general, utilizing multiple asset classes, multiple investment styles, and multiple managers (aka asset allocation & diversification) provides enough risk parameters to lessen the potential sequence risk. 

If recent volatility has hit you especially hard (emotionally or in dollars) give us a call. If you are a current client we welcome the opportunity to review your portfolio and your plan, and if you are not a current client we welcome the opportunity to provide another opinion.

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Timothy Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Vanguard or Prudential Securities. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. There is no guarantee that using an advisor will produce favorable investment results.

How Market Volatility Can Be Your Friend

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®

Chances are if you’re in your thirties or forties, the financial media is something you don’t watch on a daily basis (don’t worry; we think that’s a good thing). You’re busy with life. Between your career, family, after-school activities for your kids, commitments with friends etc., it’s hard enough to carve out a few minutes to unwind at night, let alone find the time or interest to keep up on recent updates in the stock market.  Even if you aren’t a financial media junky, you’ve probably still seen a few headlines or overheard co-workers discussing how crummy the markets have been so far in 2016 and that 2015 wasn’t a great year either.

If you’re in “accumulation mode” and retirement is 15 years or more out, don’t get caught up in the noise or the countless investment tips and stock picks you’ll inevitably hear from others. If your investment accounts are positioned properly for your own specific goals, with personal objectives and risk comfort levels in mind, roller coaster markets like we’ve experienced over the last few months are your friend. For some reason, investments are the only things I can think of that people typically don’t like to buy when they may be undervalues OR at attractive valuations. Why? Because it can be a little nerve wracking and possibly seem counterintuitive to continue to “buy” or invest when markets are falling. But what is occurring when you do just that? You’re purchasing more shares of the investments you own for the same dollar amount! Let’s look at an example: 

Sarah is 38 and is putting $1,000/month into her 401k, which is roughly 10% of her salary. She owns a single investment with a current share price of $10, meaning for this month, she bought 100 shares ($1,000 / $10/share). What if, however, the market declines like we’ve seen so far in 2016 and now the share price is down to $9? That same $1,000 deposit is going to get Sarah just over 111 shares ($1,000 / $9/share). Since she is about 25 years out from retirement, Sarah welcomes these short-term market corrections because it gives her the opportunity to buy more shares to potentially sell at a date in the future at a much higher price. If we look back in history, those who stayed consistent with this strategy typically had the greatest success.  

Everything I’ve described above is pretty straightforward. It’s not flashy or “sexy” and it might even sound somewhat boring. Good! Investing and financial planning does not have to be overcomplicated. I recently heard this quote and it really resonated with me: “Simplicity wins every time. Complexity is the enemy of execution.”  Why make things more complicated than they have to be?

Here are a few examples of simple, but effective ways to build wealth:

• Live within your means.

• Save at least 10% of your income for retirement each year starting early and increase that percentage 1% each year. For more information, check out a blog I wrote on this topic.

• Invest in a well-balanced, diversified portfolio that matches YOUR needs, not someone else’s.

• Work together with a financial planner that you trust and who can help to take as much stress out of money for you and your family as possible.

• Tune out the “noise” from financial media – the world doesn’t end very often!

You might be thinking, “I know this stuff is important, but I just don’t have the time or desire to understand it better.” Fair enough. This is one reason of the many reasons our clients hire us. They know we’re experienced and are passionate about an area in their life that is extremely important, and our clients want to get it right. Our goal is to work with you to make smart financial choices and help take the stress out of money for you and your family during each stage of your life. Let us know how we can help you do just that. 

Nick Defenthaler, CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Nick is a member of The Center’s financial planning department and also works closely with Center clients. In addition, Nick is a frequent contributor to the firm’s blogs.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Dollar-cost averaging cannot guarantee a profit or protect against a loss, and you should consider your financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low price levels. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that using an advisor will produce favorable investment results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. The example provided in this material is hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Actual investor results will vary.

What's going on with China's Currency?

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

The biggest Yuan devaluation in over 20 years shook up the markets late last year and has been a recent source of uncertainty for investors. What exactly happened? And why would China want to devalue their currency?

Why peg one currency to another?

Well, many developing countries fix the exchange value of their currencies to one of a more stable economy’s in order to stabilize their currency exchange rate fluctuations and better control domestic inflation. The U.S. Dollar is a preferred target for other countries because it has a highly liquid government bond market and a relatively stable economy. In fact, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Egypt, among others are all currently pegged to the U.S. Dollar.  

Why would China discontinue its Yuan peg to the U.S. Dollar?

The Yuan has been tied to the U.S. Dollar since 1994, but China has had a deep economic slowdown while the US economy has been going through an expansion in recent years. Monetary authorities typically take opposite actions in these two different phases of a business cycle. As we have seen, the Fed has started to raise interest rates, which usually leads to a currency appreciating, and stimulates the economy less. The People’s Bank of China wants to stimulate the economy more during their contraction, so staying tied to the U.S. Dollar would be contradictory. If the dollar rose while the Yuan was pegged to it, then the Yuan would rise too. 

A more expensive Yuan puts pressure on exporters that are a large part of China’s GDP. During China’s economic slowdown, their exports have been hurt. By devaluing their currency and allowing it to diverge from the U.S. Dollar, China is saying that it wants to focus effort on supporting exporters because a cheaper Yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive to foreign countries. This is a stimulus meant to boost economic growth.

What could go wrong?

While a cheaper currency is good for exporters and can help boost domestic economic growth, there is downside as well. A major risk of devaluing a currency is capital outflow. If the value of a currency drops, investors may move themselves or their money out of the country and into another that has a stronger currency.

China is not completely abandoning a peg though. Rather than tying their currency to the U.S. Dollar alone, they are tying it to a basket of currencies. This will allow it to stray from the U.S. Dollar, but will not allow the exchange rate to float independently and risk a larger amount of currency volatility.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

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