Market Performance and Viral Outbreaks

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Recent market volatility caused by the spread of the coronavirus and a fear of a global economic slowdown has left many wondering if this has happened before and if so, is it different this time?  There have been numerous outbreaks in recent history that we can look at.  Below is a list of different outbreaks (many of which were far deadlier than the coronavirus) that occurred. Check out the return of the S&P 500 6 and 12 months after the epidemic.

But how about a short term global impact?  The chart below shows 1 month, 3 month, and 6 month returns of the MSCI World index.  Again, not the extreme reaction that we are feeling right now in markets. 

While there may have been short term volatility, in most cases it was short lived.

But you may still be thinking that it is different this time.   The world is far more dependent on global trade than it was during SARS in 2003 for example.  There will be some supply chain disruptions and we may not be able to source these goods from other locations quickly enough.  For example, Coca-Cola recently announced that there may be some supply disruptions in the artificial sweetener used in Diet Coke and Zero Sugar Coke…this could be devastating!  I may have to switch to drinking regular coke! Actually, I don’t drink very much pop but now that I know there could be a shortage I’m craving it!  Jokes aside, many industries may face this challenge until China is back up and running around the globe.  The trade war has actually done more to prepare us for this situation than, I think, anything could have.  Companies were already searching for supply sources outside of China or bringing production back into the U.S. after the implementation of tariffs last year.

The severity of the virus will dictate the eventual outcome. Right now investors are taking a “sell first and ask questions later” mentality. We have a lot to learn from the individuals in the U.S. under care of physicians here in the U.S. as to exactly how deadly this flu is under our system of healthcare which is one of the best in the world. Markets are selling off on a guess, right now, of where this could head. If history is any indicator, by this time next year, this should be a distant memory.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past Performance does not guarantee future results. One cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI World is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure large and mid cap performance across 23 developed markets countries. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

The Single Most Important Investing Decision

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

Unsurprisingly, I think investing is fun. This is one of the reasons I’ve chosen a career in investment management. With that being said, my career is only 6 years in. Is it possible that I only think investing is fun because the stock market has hit a new all‐time high every single year of my career? Do stocks ever fall? Why even own bonds that pay 2% coupons?

With the decade being over, and the S&P 500 rising almost 190% over the prior ten years, it seems like a good time to remind ourselves of a few key investing principles.

• Stocks are risky. Their prices can fall.

• Bonds are boring, but they have potential to help preserve your portfolio.

• Asset allocation is the single most important investing decision you will make.

Asset allocation in its simplest form is the ratio of stocks to bonds in your portfolio. More stocks in your portfolio means more risk. More bonds in your portfolio means more potential to balance out the risk of stocks. As financial planners, one of the first decisions we’ll help you make is the decision of what asset allocation is most likely going to lead to your financial success.

Take a look at the drawdowns of a portfolio of mostly stocks (green line) compared to a portfolio of mostly bonds (blue line). Stocks may have roared through the 2010’s, but no one has a crystal ball to tell us what they will do in the 2020’s. This chart is a good reminder of what stocks CAN do. Be sure that your portfolio is set up to maximize your chance of success no matter what stocks do. If you are unsure about your current portfolio, we’re here to help.

Source: Morningstar Direct. Stock index: S&P 500 TR (monthly). Bond Index: IA SBBI US IT Govt Bond TR (monthly).

Nicholas Boguth is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

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Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The IA SBBI US IT Government Bond Index is an index created by Ibbotson Associates designed to track the total return of intermediate maturity US Treasury debt securities. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past Performance does not guarantee future results.

Investment Commentary: Fourth Quarter 2019

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

It’s a new decade, and there is much to discuss! We’d love to see you at our annual Economic and Investment Outlook event, happening Wednesday, February 5, from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. We’ll review the past year and take a look at what to expect in 2020. Lunch will be provided. You can register here. If you are unable to attend, don’t worry! We’ll send a link to view the presentation afterward.

2019 in Review

Where’s the beef? 2019 will be remembered as the year of the meat alternative. Burger King introduced the “Impossible Whopper”. Fans raved that this meatless alternative tastes great (I’ll take their word for it). However, investors were not left wondering about the beef in the markets, as 2019 saw excellent returns for both bonds and stocks. 2019 was strong until early May, rallying from a 2018 Christmas Eve low over 25%. The old adage “sell in May and go away” would have worked for investors this year. Point-to-point, from early May to early October, the S&P 500 was down just under 2%. From October on, however, the markets rallied strongly through year-end. Here’s how they finished up for the year:

What spurred this strong rally?

The Federal Reserve Board (the Fed)

Interest rates were cut three times throughout 2019, with guidance from the Fed that future rate hikes were very unlikely, while inflation remained low. This was a complete turnaround from the Fed, increasing rates four times in 2018 to the point that the yield curve briefly inverted in early 2019. (The yield curve shows what interest bonds of the same credit quality with different maturity dates pay.) This meant that the yield on a 2-year U.S. Treasury bond was paying more interest than a 10-year Treasury bond. Since then, the yield curve has rapidly steepened as short-term interest rates moved back down. Cutting rates not only spurred bonds to a record year, but also provided a tailwind that lifted stock markets to higher levels. Remember the old saying “Don’t fight the Fed”? This means that when the Fed is reducing interest rates, markets tend to go up, and this year was no exception.

Trade wars

Markets have responded very favorably to the trade war de-escalation. China and the U.S agreed to the phase-one trade deal in December, removing significant unpredictability, at least in the near term. This agreement rolls back a portion of the existing tariffs and cancels the tariffs that were to be implemented on December 15, 2019. China also has committed to purchasing more agricultural products, goods, and services from the U.S. in the coming years. However, significant work remains to resolve the larger sticking points in the trade war. This will likely be a factor influencing market performance and volatility in the coming year.

Corporate Buybacks

Over the course of the business cycle, the contribution to equity returns from corporate share buybacks ebbs and flows. Companies frequently buy back their own shares with the firm’s profits. This will increase Earnings Per Share (EPS), because the company’s earnings are divided among fewer shares, and it becomes a way to potentially increase stock prices.

Post-recession, companies tend to have less expendable cash and tend to buy back fewer shares. Later in the business cycle, they become cash rich and are able to more heavily deploy funds. This business cycle is no exception. Share buybacks throughout 2018 and 2019 have been a contributor to growth in EPS for companies. The one time allowance of corporate funds repatriation at a lower tax rate (allowed by Trump’s tax reform) has, no doubt, boosted this a bit.

The chart below shows the growing percentage of share buy backs. Twenty-eight percent of corporate cash on hand was utilized for this in 2018 and 2019, versus only 21% in 2010. Also notable, is the growing pool of cash (total height of the bar each year) for S&P 500 companies.

Source: Bloomberg, Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Impeachment threatened to derail the 2019 stock market rally

The House of Representatives formally voted to Impeach President Trump in December, which the markets largely anticipated. Now, the House is preparing to send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate and begin trial there. The Republican-controlled Senate is expected to acquit President Trump. If the vote goes as expected, it should not have an impact on markets. I see this as the most likely scenario.

What do we expect for 2020?

Election year

As 2020 ramps up, so will the political campaigns. The chart below looks at the S&P 500 performance during election years. The story is largely one of positive returns. In previous years, 6- and 12-month returns ahead of a presidential election have been positive almost 90% of the time.

Our economic indicators support moderate growth, and markets are playing out in a positive manner, but we are watching a few points of worry.

U.S.-Iran tensions increase

The markets took a hit during the first week of January, after a move by President Trump. In response to Iran’s latest threat, Trump targeted Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani, ultimately killing him in a U.S. air strike. This marks a departure from the nonmilitary approach the president has taken with the rest of the world, and caused the markets to quickly pull back. We’ll be watching the escalation of this geopolitical risk. 

After studying markets during other overseas military conflicts, we see the stock market flare up at the beginning of each conflict, when uncertainty is at its greatest. Once a course of action is decided, markets tend to settle into a general growth pattern, if the overall economy remains strong. This holds true even if that action is U.S. military invasion, which may seem counter intuitive. During this tension, many investors chose bonds as their safe haven. Oil is expected to spike and put some upward pressure on inflation. However, the amount of oil we can supply ourselves could mute this impact.

Economic Highlights:

• Unemployment remains at 50 year lows at 3.5%.

• Inflation, as measured by the PCE Price Index, rose 1.6% over the year ending November 2019.

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 2.1% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations.

• Retail sales increased 3.3% year over year, with online sales leading the growth – signs of a healthy consumer.

• U.S. dollar strength continues, bolstered by low inflation and low interest rates.

Economic Lowlights:

• ISM Manufacturing Index declines to 48.1. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction and is a potential recessionary signal.

• Consumer Confidence Index softens from reaching all-time highs, leaving us to wonder whether the consumer will continue to buy goods and services at the same pace (which boosts GDP).

• While leading indicators softened in the fall, the most recent reading leveled off. A negative trend here can signal a coming recession, but this softening hasn’t yet pushed us into the camp of calling for recession.

2019 was a strong year for U.S. markets. We predict positive returns will continue, just not at the same pace we experienced last year. At this point, we don’t expect a recession this year, but companies will likely face challenges as the Trade War continues. The 2020 election will continue to be on our minds as a party change in the White House could bring new economic policies.

As we welcome the New Year, we don’t want to miss the opportunity to express our gratitude for the trust you place in us each and every day. Thank you! Have a wonderful 2020!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Partner & Director of Investments

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past Performance does not guarantee future results.

One cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

Climate Change and What It Means for Investors

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Coming in 1.71°F above its historical average of 59.9°F, June 2019 was the hottest June globally in 140 years of recorded data. June’s temperature increase is the latest in an upward trend that began in the 1970s. While debates hotter than any June persist about the validity of global warming, the fact remains that climate change carries significant implications for individuals, industries, and investors alike.

Industry and Economic Impact

Not convinced Mother Nature can wreak havoc on your day-to-day life? Just ask any New Yorker who recently experienced a heatwave, flooding, and power outages all in the same week. In fact, there’s no need to look that far; as of this writing, some Detroiters are still hoping to regain power after incredibly warm weather hit the region.

While it’s pretty clear how extreme weather conditions generate problems for energy companies, heatwaves can disrupt other industries. Manufacturing plants experience reduced production when temperatures soar above 90 degrees; fewer people look for homes, which affects the real estate industry’s most active season; and increased hospitalizations impact insurance companies. While these problems more directly speak to developed, urban areas and industries, they don’t even begin to define the potential implications of climate change around the globe.

Goldman Sachs summarized it best: “We believe that in addition to environmental impact, direct damage from mortality, labor productivity, agriculture, energy demand, and coastal storms may also significantly impact overall economic growth.”

Investors Demand More

It’s no wonder 477 global investors (including money managers and large pension funds around the world) issued a letter to governments attending the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan. Commanding $34 trillion in assets, they’ve concluded that ignoring the Paris Agreement’s mission would create “an unacceptably high temperature increase that would cause substantial negative economic impacts.” Investors created the letter to petition government leaders to achieve the 2015 Paris Agreement goals, accelerate private sector investment into low carbon transition, and commit to improved climate-related financial reporting.

Be the Change

These investors also use their substantial financial weight to speak with companies in their portfolios about how they are addressing and alleviating industry-specific climate change issues. Individual investors can take a similar approach, by using their financial power to invest in mutual/exchange traded funds that evaluate the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) qualities of companies in their portfolios, as well as more traditional methods of research.

Are you ready to be the change?

Learn more about The Center’s Social Portfolio and ESG investing here.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contains this and other information about Mutual Funds and ETFs. The prospectus and summary prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

SOURCES: https://www.pionline.com/esg/investor-group-pleads-g-20-global-warming https://theinvestoragenda.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/FINAL-at-June-24-Global-Investor-Statement-to-Governments-on-Climate-Change-26.06.19-1.pdf

Investment Commentary: Second Quarter 2019

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Mid-Year update

As summer feels like it is finally underway after a soggy start, the markets have had anything but a soggy start to the year. The first half of 2019 ended on a strong note, as the U.S. and China seemed to resume negotiations with a constructive air. This is the best first half of the year the S&P 500 has experienced since 1997, as it posted a 18.54% gain.

Interest rates

Bonds have also enjoyed strong results this year, with the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index up 6.11%. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged again in June, but has made a complete about-face over the first half of the year, from projecting multiple interest rate increases to a majority of officials now thinking rates will be lower by year-end.  This comes on the heels of steady interest rate increases since 2015. The dispute over trade policy between the U.S. and China and imposition of tariffs is the main stimulus behind this thinking. This change by the Federal Reserve of wanting to reduce rates rather than raise rates (also referred to as a more dovish stance) has given a strong boost to domestic bonds as well as emerging market debt. The market has already priced in two interest rate cuts by year-end and two more in 2020. While this aggressive rate cut schedule may not fully play out (just as the three rate increases forecast for 2019 at the end of 2018 did not happen), the Federal Reserve has clearly signaled a softening economy.

Economic Snapshot

If you look at the economy and set aside the risks from the trade war, you see a pretty strong current picture; however, some of the positive signs are getting less and less positive. The expansion we have been in for so long could continue a while longer, but it seems to have less wind in its sails than it did just a year ago.

Retail Sales have come in very strong for the first half of the year, on the heels of some of the strongest readings on consumer confidence since the mid-2000s.

The Unemployment Rate, 3.6%, is at the lowest level since December 1969. The labor market remains very tight, and wages are increasing at a pace higher than inflation. This supports the high consumer confidence number and consumer spending, which is such a large part of our economy.

Inflation remains subdued with both headline and core CPI coming in at 2% or less, despite the pickup in wage inflation. Tariffs could start to increase pressure here, but we haven’t seen this flow through to the data yet.

Housing prices have been on the decline over the past year; however, the Federal Reserve’s recent change in stance on interest rates could give another slight temporary boon to this market.

Risks that could increase market volatility

Another breakdown in U.S. China trade negotiations, which could cause an abrupt pullback in markets. The tariffs in place now would start to have longer-term impact on inputs for producing goods. Businesses impacted by the tariffs would have to either cut costs elsewhere – think layoffs and discontinuing of capital expenditures – or pass the price increase along to the end consumer. Either way, this alone could start to push the economy into recession. This wildcard could have far-reaching impacts on our economy and we are closely watching developments..

The Federal Reserve not following through on cutting interest rates, as the markets are currently anticipating. The futures markets have priced in nearly four rate increases over the next 18 months. If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, we may see market rates back on the rise, meaning a short-term potential slowdown in bond returns and some headwinds for emerging market debt.

An escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which has started to affect oil prices in a negative way, although prices are still lower than they were a year ago. A sharp increase in oil prices affects consumer confidence and spending, while also putting pressure on inflation to the upside. Oil rising very quickly to high levels is often an early signal of recession

Our investment committee meets monthly and informally talks every day, if needed, regarding developments in headline risks and the economy. Sometimes, these discussions result in action, and sometimes, we take a wait-and-see approach, with an eye toward certain indicators. Right now, we continue to monitor the inversion of the yield curve, as well as the weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Both data points can be leading economic indicators that may give us some early warning signs. While we think the year should finish in positive territory, we remain cautious with our outlook for 2020.

We continue to hear great feedback on our new Client portal! We have a new instructional video to help you learn how to navigate if you are already using the portal, but also to let you know what information you could see by signing up. If you are interested, please reach out to us so we can send you the link to activate it!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center, we hope you enjoy the rest of your summer!

Angela Palacios CFP®, AIF®
Partner
Director of Investments

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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Any opinions are those of financial advisor and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design), and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.

The Gambler

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

While I’m not a big country music fan, one of the few country songs I can sing along to is “The Gambler” by Kenny Rogers. While Kenny certainly knew how to make money, he also had a pretty good idea of how to keep it: “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.” There’s a valuable lesson for investors in those lyrics. 

Most investors (and professionals, too) spend a lot of time deciding which investments to buy and little time understanding when to sell. It’s crucial to have a security selection process in place, and to understand what you own and why you own it, even if it is just an index mimicking strategy.

Part of your process, even before buying a security, should be to outline reasons you would hold the investment even through downturn periods. This can help you resist the temptation to sell in the wrong moments, for the wrong reasons. It is also important to establish factors that could cause you to sell.

At The Center, some of our reasons to potentially change strategies within a portfolio are: 

Security specific

• Key personnel departure

• Attainment of your price target

• Increased correlation to other investments

• Deviation from intended outcomes

• Expenses

Goal specific

• Change in circumstances (ie. entering retirement)

• Change in risk tolerance

• Change in the outcome needed to achieve long-term financial planning goals

Having these points in mind will make thinking about selling a position or changing your overall investment strategy (strategic allocation) easier and much less emotional. 

While it is usually best to buy and hold over longer periods of time, knowing when to hold ‘em and fold ‘em doesn’t come easily. But with some thought, you can make prudent decisions when you buy and when you sell, because you never want to have to walk away … or worse yet … have to run!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Investment risk is real. Here’s how we manage it.

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Investment risk is real. Every day. Every year. In up and down markets. Even in good times – when, for example, U.S. Equities are performing well – we all can use this friendly reminder:

The management of investment risk is constant in successful investing.

Benjamin Graham, known as the “father of value investing,” dedicated much of his book, The Intelligent Investor, to risk. In one of his many timeless quotes, he states, “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” To many investors, this statement may seem counterintuitive. Rather than an alarm, though, risk may serve as a healthy dose of reality in all investment environments.

Our Take on Risk

How do we at The Center attempt to manage risk as we steward approximately $1.1 billion in assets? We:

• Stick to our defined investment process

• Create and monitor individual investment policy statements

• Determine proper strategic asset allocation and make necessary tactical shifts

• Execute extensive research for every security that makes it into your portfolio

• Implement strict rebalancing guidelines

We have been managing client assets for more than 34 years. We fully understand and appreciate the importance of investment returns. We also know that risk is an important element when constructing portfolios intended to fund some of life’s most important goals, such as sending a child or grandchild to college, funding a long and successful retirement, having sufficient funds for long-term health needs, and passing a legacy to loved ones.

While no one can guarantee future investment returns, our experience suggests that those who follow our risk management tactics may better stay on track with their financial plans. 

If you are a client, we welcome the opportunity to talk more about how your portfolio is constructed. Not a client? We’d enjoy the opportunity to share our experience and review your goals and risk.

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Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

2019 First Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

I love this time of year. In Michigan, the sun starts shining, and we slowly start to come out of our winter hibernation. It is only this time of year when wearing shorts on a sunny, 45-degree day seems completely logical.

I am always surprised by how different March can be from beginning to end; the old saying I learned in first grade, “March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb,” is rarely wrong. It makes me think about how the first quarter of 2019 has come in like a lion and ended like a lamb. 

Much volatility marked the end of 2018. During the last quarter of the year, markets experienced a very sharp correction, pulling back almost 20% from peak to trough for the S&P 500. Then as 2019 ramped up, markets quickly recovered, and the 2018 correction became a distant memory nearly erased from our statements, melting away like the ice from all of those winter storms.

Through the first quarter of the year, the S&P 500 rallied over 13.5%, the MSCI EAFE returned nearly 10%, and the Barclay’s Aggregate US bond index earned a respectable 2.94%.

While the downside in most cases has been nearly recovered for a diversified portfolio, some scars remain and red flags of a weakening economy are popping up (no, they aren’t the kind of flags you see on the golf course).

Yield Curve Inversion?

You may have seen headlines debating the inversion of the yield curve. This is a highly watched recession indicator. Throughout 2018, the yield curve flattened as The Federal Reserve raised interest rates. This year, the flattening has slowly morphed into a potential inversion. In the yield curve chart below, on the left, you can see that very short term rates are higher than even the 10-year treasury rate. However, longer-term rates are still higher, and the two-year yield is not yet more elevated than the 10-year yield, which is the true definition of the inversion. The chart on the right shows how the yield curve looked leading into the 2008-2009 recession. You can see that the long-term rates were no longer upward sloping, but rather flat-to-downward sloping.

Source: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

The yield curve isn’t a perfect indicator, as it does from time to time give false signals that are not followed by a recession. However, the flattening and inversion of the yield curve do indicate a shaky economy that is more susceptible to outside shocks.

Many argue this is not a true inversion, and only time will tell. But this indicator does cause us to think a recession could be coming. If the inversion increases, caused most likely by long-term rates falling farther, that would increase our certainty. However, a recession generally follows an inversion by nine months to a year.

The delay happens because an inversion causes banks to tighten their lending standards. Banks make money by lending at a higher long-term rate, paying us on our short-term cash at a lower rate, and keeping the difference as profit. Paying us at a higher rate and loaning at a lower rate makes loans far less profitable. With no room for error in making a bad loan, bank standards become very strict. This alone slows the economy in many ways.

Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown recently cited the chart below: “In a simple model of recessions, the current spread between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the federal fund’s target rate implies about a 30% chance that the economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months. At this point, a broad-based decline in economic activity does not appear to be the most likely scenario, but the odds are too high for comfort and investors should monitor the situation closely in the months ahead.” (Source: http://beacon1.rjf.com/ResearchPDF/2019-03/a514efab-1484-4425-9c7a-9db0e0689423.pdf)

Auto loans showing signs of concern

Auto loans, which hit us close to home in Michigan, have shown early warning signs of trouble. Despite a low unemployment rate and growth in the economy, many people still struggle to pay their bills. As of February, seven million Americans were at least three months behind in their car payments. While the government shut down may be a contributing factor, that is still a shocking statistic and one million consumers higher than in 2010, the last peak coming out of the great recession. The loans in arrears based on percentage don’t look quite as shocking, but the numbers are creeping higher.

While these and other red flags signal an economic slowdown, we are not yet ready to confirm they signal a recession. Our investment committee is discussing areas of concern within portfolios and where we may want to make adjustments. Areas considered ripe for change include the bond positions.

We have an overweight to what we call “strategic income”, higher yielding positions that carry more credit risk than interest rate risk. While this overweight has worked for many years, we may soon reduce it back to our long-term target and add this into the Core bond portion of the portfolio. Core bonds tend to behave positively in turbulent markets and benefit from the “flight to safety” trade.

Within the core bond space, we have held shorter duration bonds which, during a rising interest rate environment, have less downside pressure as rates rise. Now that the Fed has signaled an end to raising rates for the time being, we have also looked at taking on more duration risk in that portion of the portfolio. When equity markets correct, longer duration bonds tend to perform more positively.

Headline updates:

Brexit receives an extension as Parliament in Britain seized control of the process when the Prime Minister failed, yet again, to put forth a plan lawmakers could support. This resulted in an extension until April 12; in all likelihood, another will be granted.

The Mueller investigation results have come to a close. According to Ed Mills, Raymond James Managing Direct of Washington Policy, “The conclusion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation finding no coordination or collusion with the Trump campaign related to Russian election interference, and a Department of Justice verdict seeing no case for obstruction, offers a significant near-term political boost to President Trump, alleviating one of the big unknown DC policy risks on the market. It also has the potential to have a real impact on the President’s remaining first-term agenda, particularly on trade negotiations with China or domestic issues such as the budget or infrastructure.” (Source: http://beacon1.rjf.com/ResearchPDF/2019-03/e0fc4341-4031-486e-a5fa-bcf05d9d7c2b.pdf)

The Federal Reserve officially paused its rate-hiking cycle through 2019. The Fed also has decided to slow, and eventually stop, reducing its balance sheet by selling off the Treasuries it owns. Low rates for longer terms seems to be the theme for the near future. This affects how we will position our bond portfolios. The investment committee will this month discuss the potential of adding more duration to our core bond portfolio. This area also tends to behave positively during market pullbacks and recessions and, usually, the more duration, the better.

Trade talks with China seem to be moving in the right direction, with very slow progress. This will likely continue to hang over the markets for months to come. The next leg up of the equity markets could depend on progress here.

Negative yields around the world again, still? As of the end of February, 17% of the world’s investment-grade debt is trading with negative yields. In Europe, as of the end of March, more than 40% of government debt was trading at a negative yield – making U.S. bonds still the best kid on the block. (Source: Natixis) 

If you are interested in learning more about our process, please don’t hesitate to reach out with a phone call or email or visit the investment management page of our website. We thank you for your continued trust in us!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Partner
Director of Investments

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The case study included herein is for illustrative purposes only. Individual cases will vary. Prior to making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

The S&P 500 index is comprised of approximately 500 stocks and is widely seen to be representative of the U.S. market as a whole. The MSCI EAFE index is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. These indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What Is Tactical Allocation and Why Would I Use It?

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

You’re probably familiar with strategic investing, picking the amounts of stocks, bonds, and cash that create the foundation of your portfolio. But you may also want to consider another layer of portfolio management.

Investors who overweight or underweight asset classes as perceived market opportunities arise are implementing a tactical allocation.

Typically, a tactical allocation overlays a strategic allocation to help reduce risk, increase returns, or both.

While we believe that the relationship of valuation between markets over long periods will be efficient and will correspond to fundamentals, we also know that over shorter periods, some markets may become overvalued and other asset classes will become undervalued. It makes sense at those times to use a tactical allocation strategy. When executed correctly, a somewhat modified asset allocation may offer better returns and less risk.[1]

A tactical asset allocation strategy can be either flexible or systematic.

With a flexible approach, an investor modifies his or her portfolio based on valuations of different markets or sectors (i.e. stock vs. bond markets). Systemic strategies are less discretionary and more model-based methods of uncovering market anomalies. Examples include trend following or relative strength models.

With a tactical allocation, keep in mind less can be more. Successful execution of these methods requires knowledge, discipline, and dedication. The Center utilizes tactical asset allocation decisions to supplement our strategic allocation when we identify a compelling opportunity. Our Investment Committee arrives at these decisions based on many factors considered during our monthly meetings.

Want to learn more? Reach out to your financial planner or a member of the Investment Department team to learn how The Center uses tactical allocation to manage your portfolio.

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[1] All investing involves risk, and there is no assurance that this or any strategy will be profitable nor protect against loss.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to

Event in Review: 2019 Investment Outlook

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

With market volatility back, we came together to discuss what occurred in 2018 (particularly in the last quarter) and what we are thinking about for 2019.  If you weren’t able to attend, don’t sweat it, we have the cliff notes for you!

On February 27th, 2019, Angela Palacios CFP®, AIF®, Director of Investments, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Nick Defenthaler CFP®, Senior Financial Planner, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER ™, and Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate teamed up to tackle these pressing questions and more.

Here is a recap of key points from the “2019 Investment Update”:

• What spooked the markets last year:

  • Decelerating global growth lead by China

  • Declining earnings growth expectations

  • Higher short term interest rates in the U.S. and other parts of the world

  • Valuations started 2018 in elevated territory

  • UK BREXIT

  • Italian debt concerns

  • Trade issues

  • Government shutdown

  • Mueller investigation

• What worked last year:

  • High quality fixed income rallied in this market

  • Bond duration – the more the better

  • Defensive & Low volatility stocks held up better than broad markets

  • Dividend paying stocks held up better than non-dividend paying stocks

  • Large cap equities held up better than small cap equities

  • In the last quarter of 2018 emerging and international developed markets held up better

• Is a recession on the horizon: Recessions are mainly caused by four reasons throughout the world (Inflation, Reduction in exports, Financial Imbalance or commodity price crash). Currently inflation is benign here in the U.S., exports are healthy, financial excesses aren’t present (equity valuations and household debt are moderate), and our economy is highly driven by commodities.  So at this point it looks unlikely in the next year.

• Yield curve: Flattened dramatically last year while the 2 and 5 year treasury bond yields did invert.  A traditional inversion is between the 2 and 10 year and is the signal usually watched for to telegraph a coming recession. We are keeping a close eye on this as this is becoming a potential concern.

• Tax reform recap: Nick Defenthaler gave us an update on tax reform looking at the changes to income tax brackets, changes in the standard deduction and deductibility of state and local income taxes. If you’d like to hear more on this please listen in on our Year-end tax planning webinar for the details!

• Client Portal: A Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® app??!!! We hope you are as excited as we are! Nick Boguth gave a quick demo of our new client portal and document vault. If you are interested in learning more or want to sign up for this service just reach out to your planner!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.